Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Interesting.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297


I think Ernesto has slowed quite a bit in forward speed over the past few hours!
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Has anyone checked to see how the islands fared with rainfall totals? I saw one post from Barbados of 1".
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Quoting yqt1001:
Even IR is pretty.



Huge improvement since earlier today.

I think tonight might be the night Ernesto discovers the perks that come with DMAX. I know I'll be up checkin'.
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Quoting 7544:
as for ernie hes looking good im still thinking he could pull a wilma track if he goes as plan to yucatan


You don't follow weather that much do ya....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This looks like a 60-65 mph tropical storm. The NHC will probably go with a conservative 50 mph at 11PM EDT though.

I say 60 for Ernesto taw do you think 91L could become a name storm tomorrow?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


not you... whom you said that to




???
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3399. fsumet
.
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TD6 looks like it is going to be a mean one
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Very true.


yep... very true
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By the way, is this what some of you refer to as the buzzsaw shape?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
Quoting Tazmanian:





the point is your trying too make too me ?


not you... whom you said that to
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3394. 7544
looks like 91l is blowing up again by andros is but is it moving at all if it stall there could it be td 7 at dmax

as for ernie hes looking good im still thinking he could pull a wilma track if he goes as plan to yucatan
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Quoting hydrus:
We did tremendous amounts of work on "hurricane houses" after Charley...It was a sad and difficult job with many health hazards and dangerous conditions. Everybody did a great job and worked very hard..Many were beyond repair and whole neighborhoods disappeared.


Yes that is some hard work. Physically and emotionally. You were good to help. There were many good people helping each other out around here. Two men from New Mexico drove down here with a bobcat and they worked their hearts out for me and my family after Rita. Simply because they drove by and saw that we could use a hand. They wouldn't take so much as a bottle of cold water for their efforts. And it was insanely hot. There were other good people who helped us personally. And I like to remember them instead of all the bad ones. :)
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Quoting allancalderini:
Td 6 is our first real cape verde storm of the season.
Very true.
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It really is amazing that the Atlantic went from absolutely nothing to this craziness just as the calendar flipped to August. Hopefully everyone is prepared!
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Some green showing up...
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This looks like a 60-65 mph tropical storm. The NHC will probably go with a conservative 50 mph at 11PM EDT though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
Quoting Hurricane1956:
What everybody think about 91L?, I wonder if it will develop?.
Tonight I can see more strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation near the South East tip of Andros Island they looks more concentrated also there is some curvature to the clouds,any thoughts about this?,I have not see a comment about 91L in a long time here in the Blog and it's so close to South Florida,also wondering if it's stationary or moving at all?.


looks to be slowing down Abit
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Td 6 is our first real cape verde storm of the season.
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3386. pottery
Quoting nigel20:

Ernesto is looking very good at the moment...hopefully it will pass to our south.

Did you go to Sabina Park?
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AL, 06, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, TD
FINALLYYYYYY!!!
but the pressure is up
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Quoting fsumet:
Top 10 Analogs for Ernesto are interesting. Not one of the analogs made it to the US. This isn't saying it will or will not make it to the Gulf, but it is interesting nonetheless.

Top 10 Analogs for Ernesto
What about this one?

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
3383. nigel20
Quoting AllStar17:
Models also indicate that it may not be wise to write of TD 6. The islands need to keep their eyes peeled...Ernesto may have just been an alarm for the future.

Agreed.
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Quoting cg2916:


See? Even Debby and Ernesto didn't get a renumber!
Ernesto did have renumber to TD 5 before it was Ernesto... I think.
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3381. yqt1001
Even IR is pretty.



Huge improvement since earlier today.
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so...90L is now TD6, right? It's late, I'm tired...just tryin' to keep up
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Wow, I just hope the GFS is wrong on this one.

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where now tide with the E pac lol
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Quoting cg2916:
Does the SSD or any other organization archive GOES satellite data?


Try Here
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Models also indicate that it may not be wise to write of TD 6. The islands need to keep their eyes peeled...Ernesto may have just been an alarm for the future.
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3375. yoboi
Quoting Hurricane1956:
What everybody think about 91L?, I wonder if it will develop?.
Tonight I can see more strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation near the South East tip of Andros Island they looks more concentrated also there is some curvature to the clouds,any thoughts about this?,I have not see a comment about 91L in a long time here in the Blog and it's so close to South Florida,also wondering if it's stationary or moving at all?.


it's lookin good
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3374. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, yes, it's official this time guys.


invest_RENUMBER_al902012_al062012.ren


See? Even Debby and Ernesto didn't get a renumber!
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k im back...just in time for TD 6..
Ernesto is a beast looking storm now....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
Quoting BaltOCane:


are we sure this time?

fool me once....




yep
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropical Depression 6.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al062012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208040149
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END



What took them so long lol.

Been a td for 6 hrs already.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


Hey Nigel! What's up? I can say for a good part of the bloggers that we are glad to see you. What do you think of the possibility of no renumber of 90L?

Hey would you look at that. after reading the above posts, lol, sigh.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Wondering when the next Super Storm will be born...one that reaches 150mph
I hope it isn't this year.
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LOL, yes, it's official this time guys.


invest_RENUMBER_al902012_al062012.ren
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
3365. BDAwx
Tropical Storm Ernesto is starting to impress me with that convection. I hesitate to be impressed though - there is enough going against it for the convection to just be temporary. Wow, >3000 comments.
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3364. Gorty
Quoting Gorty:


When they say "significant tropical cyclone" how strong do they think it will get?


Anyone?

Or do they just think it could develop?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Wondering when the next Super Storm will be born...one that reaches 150mph
Hopefully NOT Ernesto... he got a shot.
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What everybody think about 91L?, I wonder if it will develop?.
Tonight I can see more strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation near the South East tip of Andros Island they looks more concentrated also there is some curvature to the clouds,any thoughts about this?,I have not see a comment about 91L in a long time here in the Blog and it's so close to South Florida,also wondering if it's stationary or moving at all?.
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lol so now it TD6
Quoting Neapolitan:
How's that?

AL, 06, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some of those back side rain bands that were on Antilles Radar are starting to get in range of the Long Range radar at Puerto Rico. You can see the storm is getting a more consistent shield of rain bands all the time now.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
there we go



AL, 06, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, TD,


are we sure this time?

fool me once....
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3358. cg2916
invest_al062012.invest

AL, 06, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, M,

Hello, TD6! Welcome to the Cape Verde season!
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Wondering when the next Super Storm will be born...one that reaches 150mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.