Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nigel20:

Same to you!
Hey Nigel.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
3456. ackee
I think Earnesto has slow down and looks like a 60mph storm to me
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Quoting cg2916:
SHIPS for Ernesto:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold = 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)

For Ernesto to drop 24mb would be quite the feat.. but Ernesto has been a very determined cane since spinup.

He's still booking at 20mph, he's going to have to slow down quite a bit via weight gain during DMAX to really, really intensify.
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3454. nigel20
Quoting pottery:

True.
Good luck in the sprints.
We have 3 girls in the semis of the 100m.
Should be good stuff.
If it wasn't for Jetter it would be a Caribbean race LOL.

Same to you!
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How do you interpret the different colors(varying shades of white ,grey and the black) of the Dvorak pictures?
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Quoting stormchaser19:
The atlantic is alive

Maybe td 7 of 91l tomorrow afternoon?
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Ernesto en la Bahia de Campeche by the end of this gfs run
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Wow, wasn't expecting Ernesto to be together so well AND another invest to boot when I got home from work!

Does that one off Florida really have a chance to organise?! Or will it be sucked away by a front?!

Kudos to all who thought Ernesto would fight through, indeed he has. Still soem dry air to get through though before reaching its happy place?
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Quoting Tazmanian:





i think 91L is done



so do I
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


totally... I'll do the same...lol



We already have TD6 was renumbered one hour ago. Not yet on NHC website because they are still getting the advisory package ready.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
3447. cg2916
SHIPS for Ernesto:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold = 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I think Ernesto has slowed quite a bit in forward speed over the past few hours!


Well I hate to say but these are probably the worse conditions this storm is going to see at present and if it can organize this well in these conditions then Levi's intensity forecast is pretty much out the window...Everyone knows Levi is a great forecaster and his forecast would have been one I would have made also with dry air and strong trade winds but tracking the tropics for a long time I have learned what you think makes perfect sense, sometimes the complete opposite will happen. This thing could still very well stay weak but I must admit it is doing pretty well for itself with the conditions it is currently in.
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Any Watches or warnings for Jamaica or Haiti at 11PM???
who says what?
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Quoting nigel20:

We got some supplies today in the event that Ernesto decides to come ashore.
I just came back from the shop and gas station. I am as ready as I can be except for boarding up. Will see if it is necessary on Sunday. Stay safe Nigel.
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Hello T.D 6 ^^.Kidding...kidding..Finally after a very confusing process...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
3442. 19N81W
Quoting GTcooliebai:
What about this one?


That is an amazing .......we should take bets based on that pic
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3441. cg2916
Quoting BeanTech:
Good evening everyone.
Took a break from the olympics to drop in...

How's everyone doing tonight?


Two storms in the Atlantic... one invest near FL... pretty slow night (LOL)
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91L Rainbow animated


Link
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
At this time NHC not expecting 06L to recurve, classified as a "straight mover".

SIX, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2012, TD, S, 2012080306, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL062012


Link
Probably think it'll remain weak -- thus more zonal steering.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you!!!!.





i think 91L is done
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I did say we'd have a TD at 11.
Do some of you think the forecasters at the NHC are down at Fridays knocking back some wings and ribs and a drink while enjoying the Olympics? This one was obvious.


totally... I'll do the same...lol
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3435. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on satellite imagery, I'd say Ernesto is a 50kt cyclone -- conservatively.

Both the adjusted and raw T-numbers would agree via ADT.


2012AUG04 004500 3.1 1000.3 47.0 3.1 3.4 4.1 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -71.96 -71.18 UNIFRM N/A N/A 14.02 65.17 FCST GOES13 20.0


What the difference between raw, adjusted, and CI numbers?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i have not looked at 91L for a few hrs now i go check on him
Thank you!!!!.
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3433. nigel20
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Goodnight Nigel, I was wondering about you earlier, what are you doing to prepare for Ernesto in case he heads your way?

We got some supplies today in the event that Ernesto decides to come ashore.
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Would anyone like to venture if when and where El Nino will show up this year?


I don't know but I wish he'd get a move on!
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At this time NHC not expecting 06L to recurve, classified as a "straight mover".

SIX, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2012, TD, S, 2012080306, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL062012


Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello!!,what do you mean with atcf? maybe I'm a ignorant even though I has been following tropical systems for more than 20 years.
91L in my humble opinion looks better tonight,the thunderstorms are getting a little bit more concentrated near the low level of circulation?,maybe are my eyes?.



i have not looked at 91L for a few hrs now i go check on him
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.79N/65.01W




Going to put on quite a show later tonight.
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3428. JLPR2
Td 6 also needs to stay below 18N till 39W or it will taste waters below the 26C mark.

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Based on satellite imagery, I'd say Ernesto is a 50kt cyclone -- conservatively.

Both the adjusted and raw T-numbers would agree via ADT.


2012AUG04 004500 3.1 1000.3 47.0 3.1 3.4 4.1 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -71.96 -71.18 UNIFRM N/A N/A 14.02 65.17 FCST GOES13 20.0
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.79N/65.01W





Why RI flag
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting Tazmanian:




talking about not marh going on with 91L the atcf did not update 91L
Hello!!,what do you mean with atcf? maybe I'm a ignorant even though I has been following tropical systems for more than 20 years.
91L in my humble opinion looks better tonight,the thunderstorms are getting a little bit more concentrated near the low level of circulation?,maybe are my eyes?.
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The atlantic is alive

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I did say we'd have a TD at 11.
Do some of you think the forecasters at the NHC are down at Fridays knocking back some wings and ribs and a drink while enjoying the Olympics? This one was obvious.



dont start talking about the Olympics you wounder blog admin said too kill the Olympics if you dont then you be bannd in tell the games are overe
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Would anyone like to venture if when and where El Nino will show up this year?


At the end of August so enjoy the storms now cause the fat lady is getting warmed up :)
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3421. pottery
Quoting nigel20:

No...I'm not sure why a cricket game is going on during the Olympics and it could be interrupted by Ernesto.

True.
Good luck in the sprints.
We have 3 girls in the semis of the 100m.
Should be good stuff.
If it wasn't for Jetter it would be a Caribbean race LOL.
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3420. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.79N/65.01W


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I did say we'd have a TD at 11.
Do some of you think the forecasters at the NHC are down at Fridays knocking back some wings and ribs and a drink while enjoying the Olympics? This one was obvious.
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Oops, lost the funktop green...

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Would anyone like to venture if when and where El Nino will show up this year?
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3416. JLPR2
For the moment everything is great for streghtening for Td 6.



Looks like an anticlone could eventually form over it, check the anticyclonic flow around it.

The biggest problem right now would be the if the circulation strengthens too much it could easily pull SAL from up north.
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Quoting nigel20:

No...I'm not sure why a cricket game is going on during the Olympics and it could be interrupted by Ernesto.
Goodnight Nigel, I was wondering about you earlier, what are you doing to prepare for Ernesto in case he heads your way?
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3414. fsumet
Reasons models are killing 90L (really TD 6).

Dry air and dust:


Dust forecast:
Huge layer of Saharan dust coming off the coast.
Dust Forecast

Tons of shear to the west northwest (direction it is moving) due to the ULL:
Image didn't work properly, but it is 30-50 knots to the northwest. You can get everything from this site:
Link

There are also cooler water temperatures off to the west northwest, about 2C cooler than it is currently in.

These are the reasons why the NHC says conditions will not be favorable in a couple days.
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Quoting BenBIogger:
Not much going on with 91L.




talking about not marh going on with 91L the atcf did not update 91L
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Quoting AllStar17:
It really is amazing that the Atlantic went from absolutely nothing to this craziness just as the calendar flipped to August. Hopefully everyone is prepared!


Mother Nature watched the calendar flip to August, rolled up her sleeves and is now out to show us whose boss in the Atlantic.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Interesting.

What is your thought?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
3410. 7544
Quoting RitaEvac:


You don't follow weather that much do ya....


yep yep
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Not much going on with 91L.
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3408. nigel20
Quoting pottery:

Did you go to Sabina Park?

No...I'm not sure why a cricket game is going on during the Olympics and it could be interrupted by Ernesto.
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Interesting.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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