Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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3507. LBAR
I hate to say this, but if Ernesto can go up and give the Midwest some good rain, it wouldn't all be bad. If it has to hit somewhere, he may as well have some side benefit!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

looks even more rounder..
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 4August12amGMT:
MinimumPressure increased from 1002millibars to 1003millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Its vector changed from 276.7*West@20.3mph(32.7km/h) to 270.2*West@16.8mph(27km/h)

CDD-PuertoLempira :: PVA-Providencia :: AUA-Aruba :: SLU-St.Lucia :: SVD-St.Vincent

The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TropicalStormErnesto's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TropicalStormErnesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to a coastline
3August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over PraslinBay,St.Lucia
3August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had passed 5.1miles(8.2kilometres)South of St.Lucia on its way to passage 17.2miles(27.7kilometres)North of Aruba.
3August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over ParqueNacionalKruta near PuertoLempira
4August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage 7.6miles(12.2kilometres)South of Providencia in ~2days16hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pnd, cdd-15.1n83.315w, pva, aua-12.623n70.055w-12.872n70.082w, ngd, slu, svd, 13.1n55.5w-13.3n57.4w, 13.3n57.4w-13.7n59.8w, 13.7n59.8w-13.6n61.5w, 13.6n61.5w-13.8n63.3w, 13.8n63.3w-13.8n64.8w, 13.8n63.3w-13.213n81.384w, 13.323n81.391w-13.213n81.384w into the GreatCircleMapper for the larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Astrometeor:


Hmm, it seems with all the contemplation about Ernesto in the Atlantic we have forgotten about the TD in the WPAC. Thanks Wxchaser97!
That was the image changing on me, but for those wondering here is the wpac TD Haikui:

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3503. ackee
I cant WAIT for HH go back into Earnesto I think track will shift further North also Earnesto could very well be a hurricane in the central carrbbean I hope Iam wrong
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commet re move
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
3501. pottery
Quoting cg2916:


So, not unlike the human "diurnal cycle".

Diurnal Minimum, Diurnal Maximum.
That's right.

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3500. 19N81W
Quoting ackee:
I think Earnesto has slow down and looks like a 60mph storm to me

Ernesto already achieved 63 mph gusts when it looked pathetic .....I would say if it holds this signature it's borderline hurricane tomorrow afternoon
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Ernesto looks gorgeous!
Much better looking..
I believe 60 mph winds at 11 pm
and We now have TD 6. At last!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Ernesto: Inexplicably, our resilient TS is now exploding over the Eastern Caribbean. I think it is well within the realm of possibility that our TS has sustained winds of 70-75 mph right now. My reasoning is the development of healthy ventilation on the southeast quadrant of the storm, the growing symmetry of the CDO, the cooling of the cloud temps, and the HH report that an eyewall was forming this morning. I think the NHC will choose 50 kts as their 11:00 intensity. I see Ernesto as a very intense cyclone by 36 hours and I expect it may still be deepening at that point. Trackwise, I think Ernesto will pass through the Yucatan channel and continue on towards a Texas landfall along the big bend.

TD6: Clearly this is a tropical storm, but the NHC is relying on old satellite estimates. There is no problem with giving a 6 hr waiting period for a new sat. estimate before declaring Florence at 35-40 kts. I predict a long range path similar to Ike's early stages, being forced back southward after a northward jaunt.

91L: This is worth mentioning only because it may provide a weakness strong enpugh to influence Ernesto down the road. It will NOT be strong enough to draw Ernesto to the east at all.
Agree thoroughly with the bolded. ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting JLPR2:


Saharan Air Layer or Sahara Dust.


Thanks that explains a lot.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
anyone else having a problem gettin on to ssd.noaa.gov?

No.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
anyone else having a problem gettin on to ssd.noaa.gov?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
Quoting Jwd41190:
What is the sal?

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Quoting pottery:

DMIN = late afternoon
DMAX = early morning


Yup.

DMAX= Dawn
DMIN= Dusk

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3492. JLPR2
Quoting Jwd41190:
What is the sal?


Saharan Air Layer or Sahara Dust.
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Quoting cg2916:


So, not unlike the human "diurnal cycle".


ya know, i never thought of it like that....
it sorta is, as long as you actually get tired in the evening and get up early in the morning..
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on satellite imagery, I'd say Ernesto is a 50kt cyclone -- conservatively.

Both the adjusted and raw T-numbers would agree via ADT.


2012AUG04 004500 3.1 1000.3 47.0 3.1 3.4 4.1 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -71.96 -71.18 UNIFRM N/A N/A 14.02 65.17 FCST GOES13 20.0
Agreed
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Quoting wxchaser97:


Hmm, it seems with all the contemplation about Ernesto in the Atlantic we have forgotten about the TD in the WPAC. Thanks Wxchaser97!
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I would never wish a destructive storm on anyone, but please, Ernesto, come ashore around Houston as a weak Cat 1, and hook northeast. We need the rain soooo bad here in Arkansas! It's so dry, I'm afraid to cut my grass - well, okay, weeds. The grass is long since dead. One spark from hitting a rock...
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3487. pottery
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Will be interesting to see how much Ernesto has slowed down in the 11 o'clock advisory.

Color Enhanced Water Vapor Loop:



Slower speed, more convection, might start to drift more north......
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Ernesto: Inexplicably, our resilient TS is now exploding over the Eastern Caribbean. I think it is well within the realm of possibility that our TS has sustained winds of 70-75 mph right now. My reasoning is the development of healthy ventilation on the southeast quadrant of the storm, the growing symmetry of the CDO, the cooling of the cloud temps, and the HH report that an eyewall was forming this morning. I think the NHC will choose 50 kts as their 11:00 intensity. I see Ernesto as a very intense cyclone by 36 hours and I expect it may still be deepening at that point. Trackwise, I think Ernesto will pass through the Yucatan channel and continue on towards a Texas landfall along the big bend.

TD6: Clearly this is a tropical storm, but the NHC is relying on old satellite estimates. There is no problem with giving a 6 hr waiting period for a new sat. estimate before declaring Florence at 35-40 kts. I predict a long range path similar to Ike's early stages, being forced back southward after a northward jaunt.

91L: This is worth mentioning only because it may provide a weakness strong enpugh to influence Ernesto down the road. It will NOT be strong enough to draw Ernesto to the east at all.
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What is the sal?
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LinkModels for Tropical Depression 6

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Quoting washingtonian115:
I good.Hubby,children and I are going to the theme park tomorrow.So going to have lot's of family fun :).


which one is that? You have a six flags out there?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
3482. cg2916
Quoting pottery:

DMIN = late afternoon
DMAX = early morning


So, not unlike the human "diurnal cycle".
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3481. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2012 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
91L.INVEST
06L.SIX
05L.ERNESTO

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
90W.INVEST
12W.HAIKUI
11W.DAMREY
10W.SAOLA

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
3480. nigel20
Quoting washingtonian115:
I good.Hubby,children and I are going to the theme park tomorrow.So going to have lot's of family fun :).

That's good to know.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe td 7 of 91l tomorrow afternoon?
The local fox weather man here in N.O. Bob Breck, just showed his VIPER model for 91L and showed the storm of undetermined strenght off the mouth of the Mississippi River on Tuesday. We'll see...
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3478. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DataNerd:



Why RI flag
because there is a significant chance of occurence over the next 24 to 36 hrs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
Pressure around 30.01 and climbing around 91L. Very slim chance 91L will develop. IMO
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3476. cg2916
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3475. pottery
Quoting cg2916:
When is DMIN and DMAX?

DMIN = late afternoon
DMAX = early morning
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Will be interesting to see how much Ernesto has slowed down in the 11 o'clock advisory.

Color Enhanced Water Vapor Loop:


Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Will ADT be enough to bump it to 50kts at 11p.m?


2012AUG04 011500 3.2 999.1 49.0 3.2 3.4 4.1 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -68.76 -70.38 UNIFRM N/A N/A 14.04 65.32 FCST GOES13 19.9
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting nigel20:

Hey wash! It's getting pretty active in the Atlantic.
How have you been?
I good.Hubby,children and I are going to the theme park tomorrow.So going to have lot's of family fun :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
3471. GetReal
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3470. cg2916
When is DMIN and DMAX?
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Quoting redwagon:

Not really, he was doing 24mph all day (remember, you wrote him a ticket?) and now he's 20mph.



yes he has i bet hes going 15mph now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
Quoting redwagon:

For Ernesto to drop 24mb would be quite the feat.. but Ernesto has been a very determined cane since spinup.

He's still booking at 20mph, he's going to have to slow down quite a bit via weight gain during DMAX to really, really intensify.


He has slowed considerably
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3467. nigel20
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey Nigel.

Hey wash! It's getting pretty active in the Atlantic.
How have you been?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



Ernesto has slow way down from what it was this AM

Not really, he was doing 24mph all day (remember, you wrote him a ticket?) and now he's 20mph.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Any Watches or warnings for Jamaica or Haiti at 11PM???
who says what?


No, Ernesto seems to have slowed, I would think they would wait until the next HH mission and a little bit of a closer distance.
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Quoting mcluvincane:



Not going to happen


look in your crystal ball... tell me what you see then..
we all don't know that yet. lol
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3462. nigel20
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I just came back from the shop and gas station. I am as ready as I can be except for boarding up. Will see if it is necessary on Sunday. Stay safe Nigel.

Same to you, stormwatcher!
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Quoting redwagon:

For Ernesto to drop 24mb would be quite the feat.. but Ernesto has been a very determined cane since spinup.

He's still booking at 20mph, he's going to have to slow down quite a bit via weight gain during DMAX to really, really intensify.



Ernesto has slow way down from what it was this AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
3459. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
06L/TD/XX/CX
MARK
OUT OPF RANGE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Ernesto en la Bahia de Campeche by the end of this gfs run



Not going to happen
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Quoting nigel20:

Same to you!
Hey Nigel.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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