Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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3607. ackee
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I've been tracking since late 2003 season, and I've NEVER seen NHC being so far off in ALL THREE categories before at the SAME TIME. This should be 60 mph storm, the path little farther north, AND intensity to peak at 100 or 105 mph. *SMH*
agree 100% I think when recon Go out track intensity might change whole lot
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:


Interesting, if it can hold together it might pose a threat in the future. Very long range of course, but the main threat remains Ernesto.
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Quoting BenBIogger:
Pressure around 30.01 and climbing around 91L. Very slim chance 91L will develop. IMO
I'm just excited it got the 20% at all... since I predicted last weekend we'd see this. It's the sweet spot, the blow-up / intensification triangle between the Bahamas, Cuba, and FL... imagine if something organised hit that spot...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

THAT'S IT...?
Technically that's a good thing, however, sometimes these systems can regenerate down the road.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
3603. ncstorm
Ernesto still 50mph..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16009
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i have no bookmarks..and i have nothing saved i dont have to.
Ohhh ok, I really don't know, switch to another browser if possible and if not then I really dont know.
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3601. cg2916
Quoting Tazmanian:
drop a cow on FORECASTER LANDSEA



His name is actually Landsea! LOL
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3600. hamla
bob breck on fox 8 in nola says viper run makes ts gordon by wed. off mouth of ms.river.thats invest by fl.now
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Yeah Beven...let's use aircraft data from a plane that made one pass through the center and had technical issues...several hours ago.

There are some forecasters I just don't like.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
NHC sure doesn't like TD6, brings it up to 45mph before dying.
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Why is that??
Quoting AllStar17:
Wow. They kill TD 6 in 96 hours.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I've been tracking since late 2003 season, and I've NEVER seen NHC being so far off in ALL THREE categories before at the SAME TIME. This should be 60 mph storm, the path little farther north, AND intensity to peak at 100 or 105 mph. *SMH*
Now that I can agree with. All of it LOL. *high five*
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


THAT'S IT...?


so upsetting/...
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the latter part of the new forecast track is nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast.
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Wow. They kill TD 6 in 96 hours.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Oh...that sounds familiar

WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE
AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15945
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

We share victory... xD
I posted the public advisory... you posted the discussion.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 3
Location: 13.8°N 27.8°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
anyone else having a problem gettin on to ssd.noaa.gov?
Sometimes when this happens to me, I switch over to IE and it works just fine. I normally use Firefox.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:


That storm should be at least 60 mph... no way that is still 50 mph IMO.


Wait till the Hurricane Hunters get back out there-if there equipment doesn't do a rare failure again...
"Ernesto strengthening faster than expected..." or something. They have IR pics like we do so I don't know why they don't upgrade to 60mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I must say this is the most I disagree with a current intensity, a track forecast, and intensity forecast in a while LOL. But what do I know?
I've been tracking since late 2003 season, and I've NEVER seen NHC being so far off in ALL THREE categories before at the SAME TIME. This should be 60 mph storm, the path little farther north, AND intensity to peak at 100 or 105 mph. *SMH*
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting RitaEvac:

Ernesto has slowed 2mph over the last hour down to 18mph. That's still haulin. With the RI flag thrown on, I'm going to guess 12mph, 70mph winds and a much bigger, rounder footprint at dawn CDT. And I think he won't be susceptible to DMIN tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and you just found out.

Of course not, but it's offical on the NHC site as in we got TD6.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Do you have it bookmarked? It works for me when I click the bookmark but not when I type it in.


i have no bookmarks..and i have nothing saved i dont have to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It seems the NHC is extremely timid to move away from the model consensus.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Not much change with the cone of uncertainty wait a minute yes there is change into a major hurricane.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
No lol at 9:30 lol
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and you just found out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3578. cg2916
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 2 5 11 17 25 33
TROP DEPRESSION 33 23 26 34 36 35 37
TROPICAL STORM 64 69 63 49 43 37 28
HURRICANE 1 5 6 6 5 3 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 5 5 4 3 2
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT

They kill TD6 off!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 040242
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
We got TD6!


and you just found out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3575. cg2916
IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3574. pottery
Strange how the Season has become so active all of a sudden.
Just about the same time WU and TWC combined the servers and stuff.

Conspiracy ????

:):))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the lgem calling for Ernesto to become a major hurricane in 96 hr

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We got TD6!
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
spiral bands beginning to form on the west side of Ernesto. TD 6 has formed.

Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
000
WTNT21 KNHC 040241
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
0300 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 27.8W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 27.8W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 27.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 27.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do we have TD 6?
Yes
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
...ERNESTO MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 3
Location: 13.9°N 65.6°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Surprised... This looks like, no 50 mph tropical storm ive seen... This should be 60 mph.
Slowed down from the last advisory.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
I thought recon went in there later tonight.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
3565. GetReal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seems like the NHC changed nothing with Ernesto, why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

Strange, I got firefox and when I typed it in to see it didn't work but when I click on the bookmark for it it works fine.


I googled the IP, clicked on the website, and it worked, bookmarked it while I was at it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Waiting on the Update for TD 6...
f5 f5 f5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I must say this is the most I disagree with a current intensity, a track forecast, and intensity forecast in a while LOL. But what do I know?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

So basically non-mandatory evacuations for low lying areas...

Pretty much how it usually goes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Do we have TD 6?
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18z GFDL:





Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
3557. JLPR2
I guess this is all we have that could give us some info till the HHs fly tomorrow.

Station 42059 - Eastern Caribbean
15.054 N 67.472 W (15°3'14" N 67°28'19" W)


Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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