Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KevyDuty:


Another new guy question here. Why do I need to click 'show' to see some posts and is that a setting that can be changed somewhere?


Yes, it can be changed. At the upper right of the blog comment section there is a "filter" which you can change to "show good", "show bad", and "show all". I am not sure what the difference is between "Show bad" and "show all".
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i wounder if this blog will hit 10,000
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Time: 15:34:30Z
Coordinates: 14.9N 69.4333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,567 meters (~ 5,141 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.3 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 60° at 20 knots (From the ENE at ~ 23.0 mph)
Air Temp: 17.5°C (~ 63.5°F)
Dew Pt: 9.8°C (~ 49.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
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GFS develops Big wave C Africa before exiting to water.... 138 hrs.... so maybe is the one on the East....

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Ernesto weakening just goes to show you how confusing these storms can be and that we still have alot to learn
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ok been gone all day and i see we have Florence.... awesome...lil early for # 6 but i think its just gonna be a fish storm

And Ernesto... he looks stronger then 1008mb doesnt he??
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5400. barbamz
Quoting KevyDuty:


Another new guy question here. Why do I need to click 'show' to see some posts and is that a setting that can be changed somewhere?


Go to the top of the page, change filter settings to "show all" and log in again.
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Quoting daws99:
GM all I am in jamaica and this is confusing to say the least, but any short term intensification and or track adjustmemt would greatly affect us here. Please advise worst case for next 48 hrs thank you


umm, nice pic you have...
It seems ernie will go south of you but you could still have ts to hurricane winds depending on how this lines up.
What you should do is just have what you need in case ernesto decides to pay you a serious visit..but it doesnt look too too bad for you at this time..stay with your local media and the nhc to see where this should go
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting Levi32:


An ensemble is generally a set of many different runs of the same computer model that are initialized with slightly different initial conditions. The aim is to average them all out and get a better idea of what the atmosphere will do, because each ensemble member will be prone to different errors, and it has been shown that letting those errors cancel each other out by averaging can result in a more skillful forecast.

There is also such a thing as a multi-model ensemble, where multiple different models are averaged. The NHC uses these a lot for tropical cyclone track forecasting. Their favorite one is called the TVCN.
The difference is ones right and the others wrong////
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Haven't seen you post in a while.


Been at camp for a week, no internet.
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5396. guygee
Quoting KevyDuty:
Another new guy question here. Why do I need to click 'show' to see some posts and is that a setting that can be changed somewhere?
There is a voting system of sorts on this site and unpopular posters do not get shown unless you are logged in. Usually those not shown are considered to be trolls and not worth showing.
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Florence already gaining some movement WNW

while the big wave is moving WSW

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Yawn, Strech, Fumble!
Oh wonder whats happening today?
What a suprise, 5376 coments. Something must have kicked a hornets nest on here since yesterday?
The North allantic world looks full of at least 3 new perils!
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5393. daws99
GM all I am in jamaica and this is confusing to say the least, but any short term intensification and or track adjustmemt would greatly affect us here. Please advise worst case for next 48 hrs thank you
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Time: 15:25:00Z
Coordinates: 15.25N 69.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,585 meters (~ 5,200 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.6 mb (~ 29.84 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 63° at 27 knots (From the ENE at ~ 31.0 mph)
Air Temp: 17.5°C (~ 63.5°F)
Dew Pt: 8.8°C (~ 47.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
...THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST
OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005...


Haven't seen you post in a while.
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5390. yqt1001
Floater on Florence up!

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Ernesto not strengthening despite very favorable conditions and very good satellite structure is the most dumbfounding thing...well...since Jose 2011 was named last year...

Sorry for bringing up Jose again...
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5387. yqt1001
Quoting wxgeek723:


Something smells fishy.


Number inflation to get more funding. XP
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Quoting Tazmanian:


Ernesto going too FL? 0% ch more like from TX to AL needs too watch


With the GFDL and HWRF pointed at FL, I wouldn't say 0%.

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I know....trying to write blog posts about it makes it even harder. I've been watching these 3 systems for the last 11 hrs now...I need to take a break...LOL...

The pace of the blog doesn't help things either. :P
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1008 am EDT Sat Aug 4 2012


Update...latest visible satellite imagery does indicate that a
weak low pressure area may be have developed in the axis of the
tropical wave east of central Florida. Surface winds also support
a weak low. This has resulted in winds being more northerly across
the interior...similar to the NAM surface wind field. A weak
closed low moving across Florida will have different impacts than
an open wave. The southern portions of our forecast area may see
more of a north or even northwesterly flow which will allow the
Gulf Coast sea breeze to penetrate farther inland. Meanwhile to
the north...moisture convergence will be increased...especially
later in the afternoon as the wave and weak low approaches the
peninsula and the Gulf Coast sea breeze develops. At this time...
I am increasing rain chances to 60 percent north of Tampa Bay
while decreasing rain chances a bit to the south right along the
coast. I do think we will see numerous showers and thunderstorms
over most of our inland counties this afternoon...and we may see
that extend into the evening hours from Tampa Bay north. I will
revisit the evening forecast hours after the 12z model guidance
arrives.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
...THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST
OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005...



Something smells fishy.
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5382. yqt1001
Quoting lurkersince2008:
There is so much going on in the tropics, I can't keep up!


06L.FLORENCE


05L.ERNESTO


12W.HAIKUI


90W.INVEST


91L.INVEST
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5381. Walshy
Yesterday, NASA's AQUA satellite captured this image of von Karman vortices in the clouds downwind of Guadalupe Island, located in the Pacific Ocean just off the Baja Peninsula.

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Quoting 7544:
theres still a yello 10 % circle for fl so they might bring it back latter as invest 91L ?



my thinking is that they will likey drop it from the next two
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Quoting Tazmanian:



no Florence is 5mph weaker then Ernesto
I mean in terms of pressure.
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5377. 7544
theres still a yello 10 % circle for fl so they might bring it back latter as invest 91L ?
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...THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST
OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005...

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Quoting lurkersince2008:
There is so much going on in the tropics, I can't keep up!

I know....trying to write blog posts about it makes it even harder. I've been watching these 3 systems for the last 11 hrs now...I need to take a break...LOL...
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I've seen worse 45 kt, 1008 mb storms...

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5373. guygee
Quoting Clearwater1:
The NHC and Local mets, TB area, keep saying 91 (a tropical wave) is heading across the state, but I don't see any movement west. Do you? In fact, 91 seems to be heading north.
Check the MLB radar in composite to see the details. Former 91L is an inverted trough offshore of Vero Beach down to Port St. Lucie or south of there. It has been drifting north but will likely get driven onshore this afternoon. Could be a lot of beneficial rains but no sense overhyping the thing, IMO.
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Quoting stormcraig:
like i said long time lurker (at least 8 yrs) as for you wishcasters wanting something to come your way you go thru 3 storms in 6 weeks and go without power for a total of 7 weeks then lets see if you still wish for it. i love weather and its power but never want to go thru that again . even well supplied with a generator it was still hell on earth
LOL can you imagine being an early settler in Fl. in the 1800's.

I know Levi would have loved it!! ;)

These experiences make us appreciate the finer things in life. Electric and AC.
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Quoting lurkersince2008:
.

My thoughts exactly.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Right now even Florence is stronger than Ernesto.

Dont think so lol who has the better convection.
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Belize now in the cone.I didn`t see it until know.
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There is so much going on in the tropics, I can't keep up!
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its even worst with kids to try and entertain
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Quoting Catfish57:
What used to be the best place on the internet to get insider insight on early trends of storm expectations has turned into a cyber stadium full of cheerwishers whose emotions ebb and flow on NHC bulletins.

These 6 hour mood swings do not put this site in the best light.


Robust usage of the ignore feature helps.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Right now even Florence is stronger than Ernesto.



no Florence is 5mph weaker then Ernesto
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5363. Levi32
Quoting Fishinnfever05:
New guy here, what is the difference between the ensemble models and the computer models?


An ensemble is generally a set of many different runs of the same computer model that are initialized with slightly different initial conditions. The aim is to average them all out and get a better idea of what the atmosphere will do, because each ensemble member will be prone to different errors, and it has been shown that letting those errors cancel each other out by averaging can result in a more skillful forecast.

There is also such a thing as a multi-model ensemble, where multiple different models are averaged. The NHC uses these a lot for tropical cyclone track forecasting. Their favorite one is called the TVCN.
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ok I am expecting noticeable strengthening to start between 70W and 73W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10985
Right now even Florence is stronger than Ernesto.
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5359. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 AM EDT Saturday 4 August 2012
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.03 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 81.9°F
Dewpoint: 73.0°F
Humidity: 75 %
Wind: SSE 7 mph
Humidex: 100
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5358. ticka1
Quoting stormcraig:
like i said long time lurker (at least 8 yrs) as for you wishcasters wanting something to come your way you go thru 3 storms in 6 weeks and go without power for a total of 7 weeks then lets see if you still wish for it. i love weather and its power but never want to go thru that again . even well supplied with a generator it was still hell on earth


same here was without power for 17 days with ike don't want to ever go thro that again!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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