Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 19N81W:
We all live by what the nhc says usually who thinks they have no idea on this one in terms of intensity .....
I don't think they are seeing the same thing we are seeing. With the organization that has occured throughout the day there is no way IMO that winds have only increased from 40 mph this morning to 50 mph tonight.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Isn't there a recon in there later tonight?
8a.m EDT.
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Td six track

Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting wxchaser97:
Its been a tough summer with multiple problems and that's one of the reasons I'm here now.


I'm sorry about that....but it's nice you are here.
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Could anyone post a picture of or link me to the latest atlantic/caribbean SST map? Thanks in advance

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3652. JLPR2
ASCAT barely caught the west side of Ernesto.

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3651. pottery
Quoting RitaEvac:
Don't matter if it's 50mph or 70mph, the real show is down the road and that's what counts

St. Lucia recorded 73MPH gust.
And that was when Ernesto looked pretty dismal.
Right now, I would assume gusts to 80 - 90 ?
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Stewart is sitting there cringing at Landsea's TD 6 forecast.
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Quoting AllStar17:


I had braces...and your mouth will be sore sometimes, but there will be a time where you won't even remember you have them on. In fact, I don't recommend it, but I still did chew gum, etc. with them on.
Its been a tough summer with multiple problems and that's one of the reasons I'm here now.
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Could anyone post a picture of or link me to the latest atlantic/caribbean SST map? Thanks in advance
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3647. emguy
Quoting RitaEvac:
As long as it's moving 15mph or more, it's gonna be moving farther west than north, just the way it is


Its likely only moving at about 12mph as of right now...and 91L deffinately did it's part already...Its inflow jet on the SE flank imparted just enough weakening of the ridge that the Carribean Trade Winds got checked and are a non issue now...allowing Ernesto to get his influence on. He will continue to slow in the next 48-72 hours.
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Quoting GetReal:


Best looking underestimated 50 mph TS that I have observed in recent memory!!!

Well rounded system now with impressive spiral banding, even on the west quads. Ernesto appears to be right under a anti-cyclone and is ventilating. IMO Ernesto will be approaching hurricane status near daybreak.
it has an anticyclone over it. only problem is the dry air. could become a hurricane before reaching jamaica. i despise the NHC for being conservative. if you want people to take notice you should NOT be conservative
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3645. 19N81W
We all live by what the nhc says usually who thinks they have no idea on this one in terms of intensity .....
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MY version of the 11pm advisory for Ernesto...
60 Mph
1002 MB
Moving W at 18

Forecast:
Init: 60 Mph
12 Hours: 65 Mph
24 Hours: 70 Mph
36 Hours: 75 Mph
48 Hours: 80 Mph
72 Hours: 90 Mph
96 Hours: 105 Mph
120 Hours: 90 Mph

-NOT OFFICIAL- lol
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
On top of that you have models intializing open waves, cough* cough* GFS an ECMWF, at times like this it's just better to go with the untrained eye, and my eye says this is strengthening and that the 50mph is just an educated guess due to the fact that recon couldn't go in and make another pass and no way is this an open wave.
This is the first storm I am here for and it is not an easy one to forecast. If we had our way this would be a 60mph but the NHC forecaster are the pros.
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just think back to ernesto when we woke up this morning and ernesto now...wow..all in a day..

lets see how it fares leading up to dmax with all that warm water under cooler air
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9469
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
With all the latent heat being released, coupled with that type of convective organization...

I would not be surprised one bit if this developed an anticyclone.



200mb anticyclone will over the NW Caribbean, and moving with it into the Gulf
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Quoting floridaboy14:
wow at the weather channel already calling td 6 a fish storm... i bet i know more than those meteorologists :)

According to the statistical mdoels, which they showed, it will be. They had good reason to say it based on some of them.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
Isn't there a recon in there later tonight?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Ernesto is looking really good, don't know when I can make an Ernesto/TD6 forecast graphic and blog since my mouth is really sore and Im busy tomorrow.


I had braces...and your mouth will be sore sometimes, but there will be a time where you won't even remember you have them on. In fact, I don't recommend it, but I still did chew gum, etc. with them on.
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3637. aquak9
GR- wish I could wave a magic wand and tell you it's gonna be ok

but you have been there, done that, and it was NOT ok

so all I can say is I am thinking of you and yours
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First timer here but have been reading these blogs for a couple of years now. What is CDO.?
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Quoting floridaboy14:
wow at the weather channel already calling td 6 a fish storm... i bet i know more than those meteorologists :)


well in this case they are right
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9469
3634. cg2916
Quoting GetReal:


Best looking underestimated 50 mph TS that I have observed in recent memory!!!

Well rounded system now with impressive spiral banding, even on the west quads. Ernesto appears to be right under a anti-cyclone and is ventilating. IMO Ernesto will be approaching hurricane status near daybreak.


It looks like a 60 mph TS at least.
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What is going to happen to 91L at 2am?

What will chance of 91L at 2am?
A:20%
B:30%
C:40:
D:50%
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With all the latent heat being released, coupled with that type of convective organization...

I would not be surprised one bit if this developed an anticyclone.

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Quoting AllStar17:
I wouldn't be surprised if TD 6 survives.


models have a weak ts and then death..the waves after it are the real problem
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9469
good night guys


i be back by 8
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114074
Quoting stormchaser19:

UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR.



well he didnt go too strong, not even cat 2
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9469
Quoting wxchaser97:
Why NHC? why?
On top of that you have models intializing open waves, cough* cough* GFS and ECMWF, at times like this it's just better to go with the untrained eye, and my eye says this is strengthening and that the 50mph is just an educated guess due to the fact that recon couldn't go in and make another pass and no way is this an open wave.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Don't matter if it's 50mph or 70mph, the real show is down the road and that's what counts
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3626. GetReal
Quoting RitaEvac:
As long as it's moving 15mph or more, it's gonna be moving farther west than north, just the way it is


That would depend upon it not slamming on the brakes, and becoming a monster.
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Ernesto is looking really good, don't know when I can make an Ernesto/TD6 forecast graphic and blog since my mouth is really sore and Im busy tomorrow.
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wow at the weather channel already calling td 6 a fish storm... i bet i know more than those meteorologists :)
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YIKES!

What storm was it a few years back that formed in the East Atlantic and then degenerated before turning into a monster hurricane. I am not going to say what name but this makes me think of that.

Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
3622. GetReal


Best looking underestimated 50 mph TS that I have observed in recent memory!!!

Well rounded system now with impressive spiral banding, even on the west quads. Ernesto appears to be right under a anti-cyclone and is ventilating. IMO Ernesto will be approaching hurricane status near daybreak.
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As long as it's moving 15mph or more, it's gonna be moving farther west than north, just the way it is
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yeah Beven...let's use aircraft data from a plane that made one pass through the center and had technical issues...several hours ago.

There are some forecasters I just don't like.


it really isnt much different.
its a conservative 11pm forecast..they can change it later,theyll be on top of it all night
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9469
Can we say that future Florence will be the first true CV system of 2012?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Less than 5 knots of shear?

CDO with spiral bands?






Next step is an eye.
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3617. JLPR2
Well now, I hope Landsea inst checking Wu now, where's the love at for Landsea? XD
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Why NHC? why?
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 999.0mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 4.1

Center Temp : -65.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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Looks like the NHC gonna be dead on for a Yucatan impact
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3614. emguy
Quoting RitaEvac:
18mph


Considering this NHC advisory is a long term average speed, this is still a significant slowdown...in fact 25% slower than earlier today. Otherwise, in the shorter tern, he's gotten even slower.
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 040238
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012


SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO
TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE
CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR
CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND
HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN
ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON
SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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I wouldn't be surprised if TD 6 survives.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Wait till the Hurricane Hunters get back out there-if there equipment doesn't do a rare failure again...
"Ernesto strengthening faster than expected..." or something. They have IR pics like we do so I don't know why they don't upgrade to 60mph.


spiral bands on the west side of Ernesto warrant at least a 70 MPH storm
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Less than 5 knots of shear?

CDO with spiral bands?






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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now that I can agree with. All of it LOL. *high five*
NHC have been pretty off this year... but whatever. They're the pros.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7506
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yeah Beven...let's use aircraft data from a plane that made one pass through the center and had technical issues...several hours ago.

There are some forecasters I just don't like.
And instead of using current ADT estimates, let's use the TAFB/SAB duo from 3 hours ago.

I'm done bashing though -- my point has been proven LOL.
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3607. ackee
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I've been tracking since late 2003 season, and I've NEVER seen NHC being so far off in ALL THREE categories before at the SAME TIME. This should be 60 mph storm, the path little farther north, AND intensity to peak at 100 or 105 mph. *SMH*
agree 100% I think when recon Go out track intensity might change whole lot
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.