Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Here in Dominican republic the national center of meteorologist, has issued yellow alert to the south part of the country.
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Quoting Fishinnfever05:
First timer here but have been reading these blogs for a couple of years now. What is CDO.?
"CDO" is an acronym that stands for "central dense overcast". NOAA Link
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Puerto Rico is starting to get some outerbands that will continue to arrive in the overnight and on Saturday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1021 PM AST FRI AUG 3 2012

.UPDATE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PUERTO
RICO FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM SATURDAY. CONSIDERING DIFFERENT
QPF FORECASTS INCLUDING HPC AND GFS MODEL SHOW THIS AREA WITH AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THAT AREA DURING THAT TIME...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS BASED ON THE
DURATION AND INTENSITY OF EXPECTED WEATHER. IT WAS DECIDED TO
ISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA AND NOT OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND. THAT HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE OTHER AREAS
WILL NOT RECEIVE RAIN...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR
THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SAINT THOMAS AIRPORT REPORTED 43
MPH WIND GUST WHILE SAINT CROIX REPORTED 36 MPH WIND GUST ABOUT 2
HOURS EARLIER AND SAN JUAN REPORTED 35 MPH WIND GUST WITH THAT
SAME LINE OF SHOWERS. THIS LINE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING. THE USVI
REPORTED ABOUT A TENTH TO 2 TENTHS OF RAIN AND SAN JUAN ONLY
OBSERVED 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN.

WEATHER AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DETERIORATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS TIME GOES BY. BUOY 42060 IS REPORTING PERSISTENT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
NOW UP TO 10 FEET AND A PERIOD OF AROUND 5 SECONDS. THIS IS THE
BEHAVIOR WE EXPECT FOR OUR LOCAL WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST.
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3704. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
Don't lose hope. We always have this.




Thanks for the reassurance.
I was beginning to despair.....
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Blog has slowed down...
Im tired.
Expect to see the following tomorrow morning:

TS ERNESTO
65 Mph
998 MB
Moving WNW @ 14

TS FLORENCE
40 Mph
1007 MB
Moving WNW @ 18

Invest 91L:
No threat to develop---
20%
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I didn't expect this when I got home...


Ernesto is nearing Hurricane strength alot quicker then forecast. Will not surprise me to the least that Ernesto hits Hurricane strength tomorrow. I am now forecasting this storm to become a Major Hurricane in the Western Caribbean.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm happy we got the TD at 11.
So what if it gets the guillotine in 4 days at most.
Cheers..to TD6.
Might even get a quickie TS to pad the numbers.


By pad do you mean inflate? -__-

I give up with number of storm stats. I put my faith into ACE now, where storms like that don't even make a dent.
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3700. 19N81W
Quoting RkptMom:
Long time lurker. I have learned so much following this Blog. I must say that Ernesto scares me. The intestification we have seen today in spite of wind shear and dry air and the current track. I am in So. Tx. (Corpus Christi area) and I keep seeing Texas over and over again in posts. We need the rain, but not a major. I hope this high pressure we have been under for weeks stays put and this becomes a Mexico storm.

I brought this up today there is an insane amount of info on here and I for one use it often during periods like this
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Quoting fsumet:


They are always going to be conservative. If they were overzealous all the time people would say they always overdo it and have crying wolf syndrome. They went above the GFS and ECMWF and even that pains them. Both of those very excellent models kill the storm. Just because one or two models has a strong hurricane doesn't mean they should just say it is going to be a Cat 4, even if it happens. They are actually ahead of most of the guidance.

They usually will not intensify a storm right after they just had a flight go into it. They don't like flip flopping. For example, they say it is 60 mph, then hurricane hunters fly into it and they only find 50 mph. Why try to guess when they just had a flight into the storm? It isn't an immediate threat to anywhere, so there is plenty of time to update the intensity. Anyway, they will be the first to tell you they suck at intensity forecasting.
Hurricane hunters found more than 50 mph winds and along with the GFS and Euro, the HWRF, GFDL, CMC, UKMET, and even the NOGAPS are all reliable models, hence the reason why the NHC is in the middle of the guidance.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
3698. pottery
Quoting RkptMom:
Long time lurker. I have learned so much following this Blog. I must say that Ernesto scares me. The intestification we have seen today in spite of wind shear and dry air and the current track. I am in So. Tx. (Corpus Christi area) and I keep seeing Texas over and over again in posts. We need the rain, but not a major. I hope this high pressure we have been under for weeks stays put and this becomes a Mexico storm.

I am pretty sure you did not mean this to sound the way it does.
I am also very sure that you, in Texas, are FAR better prepared in every way, that the people of Mexico for a strong storm.
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.
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Quoting DataNerd:




I live in galveston, been saying that a bit recently because people don't know me yet on this blog.


I think Ernesto as it stands right now poses a significant threat to us. Keep a close eye on it.


Was at the Spot and H20 earlier today
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Some of us wait until an invest is declared a TD to get an idea of what the track could be by looking at the NHCs forecast cone.

Then we say the track is wrong.

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Quoting cg2916:



His name is actually Landsea! LOL
yep. Does a lot of the TC climatology / research stuff.
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3693. cg2916
Rotation in Ernesto becoming more apparent in the last few satellite frames.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
3692. GetReal


Link
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Quoting redwagon:

Do you think we will get Ernesto? I did for a while, but now I'm more inclined to LA/MS landfall.

And btw, is WXGEEK in jail or something? Or his girl must be pretty nice to get him to ignore 3 storms at once.


No point in thinking it, this thing is so far away. When it gets to the NW Caribbean and if it does, then start worrying bout track, it's wayyyyyy too soon man
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3690. 19N81W
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't think they are seeing the same thing we are seeing. With the organization that has occured throughout the day there is no way IMO that winds have only increased from 40 mph this morning to 50 mph tonight.

Ok just making sure I am not crazy.....not suggesting it's a monster but looks better than that but maybe they are looking at what may happen tonight
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3689. fsumet
Quoting floridaboy14:
it has an anticyclone over it. only problem is the dry air. could become a hurricane before reaching jamaica. i despise the NHC for being conservative. if you want people to take notice you should NOT be conservative


They are always going to be conservative. If they were overzealous all the time people would say they always overdo it and have crying wolf syndrome. They went above the GFS and ECMWF and even that pains them. Both of those very excellent models kill the storm. Just because one or two models has a strong hurricane doesn't mean they should just say it is going to be a Cat 4, even if it happens. They are actually ahead of most of the guidance.

They usually will not intensify a storm right after they just had a flight go into it. They don't like flip flopping. For example, they say it is 60 mph, then hurricane hunters fly into it and they only find 50 mph. Why try to guess when they just had a flight into the storm? It isn't an immediate threat to anywhere, so there is plenty of time to update the intensity. I do agree that it is stronger than they say, but it is what it is. Anyway, they will be the first to tell you they suck at intensity forecasting.
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Quoting redwagon:

Do you think we will get Ernesto? I did for a while, but now I'm more inclined to LA/MS landfall.

And btw, is WXGEEK in jail or something? Or his girl must be pretty nice to get him to ignore 3 storms at once.




I live in galveston, been saying that a bit recently because people don't know me yet on this blog.


I think Ernesto as it stands right now poses a significant threat to us. Keep a close eye on it.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
3687. Grothar
Don't lose hope. We always have this.



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3686. cg2916
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


top names are landsea and avila in my opinion..they just sound cool


I remember Lixion Avila easily. Landsea I just learned and it is so fitting for his occupation.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
3685. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

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3684. ncstorm
Im so thankful for the NHC..

you guys have a good night..see yall bright and early in the morning..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
Quoting AllStar17:


Yes, you could say that.


nhc is conservative because they dont put much RI or almost RI in forecasts....
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Think it will be at hurricane strength in the morning?
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I really really really do not like the new track not one bit.



Cat one in the gulf with low forward speed moving NW-NNW is a nightmare scenerio right now.

The gulf is cooking and there will be no shear, without forward motion to inhibit the system you could easily sea a monster be born. Doesn't matter where it emerges as long as its not a CMC/GFS track.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting AllStar17:


Oh, I don't. I have no idea who Landsea is. But Stewart is notoriously aggressive in his forecasts. And, actually, I'd rather have an aggressive forecast not pan out than a weak forecast be totally incorrect.


top names are landsea and avila in my opinion..they just sound cool
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Quoting cg2916:


And isn't Avila pretty conservative?


Yes, you could say that.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm happy we got the TD at 11.
So what if it gets the guillotine in 4 days at most.
Cheers..to TD6.
Might even get a quickie TS to pad the numbers.
Well if TD 6 does get the guillotine like you say, hope it gets to enjoy at least a quickie.
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Could anyone post a picture of or link me to the latest atlantic/caribbean SST map? Thanks in advance


on ssd satellite you can turn sst on by checking the SST box:
Link
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Quoting RitaEvac:


200mb anticyclone will over the NW Caribbean, and moving with it into the Gulf

Do you think we will get Ernesto? I did for a while, but now I'm more inclined to LA/MS landfall.

And btw, is WXGEEK in jail or something? Or his girl must be pretty nice to get him to ignore 3 storms at once.
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3675. cg2916
Quoting AllStar17:


Oh, I don't. I have no idea who Landsea is. But Stewart is notoriously aggressive in his forecasts. And, actually, I'd rather have an aggressive forecast not pan out than a weak forecast be totally incorrect.


And isn't Avila pretty conservative?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
TD6........ quite impressive for a storm so far east!
However, at the latitude TD6 is at, will definitely struggle with the SAL!

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Latest on Ernesto



Track change


Syntopic discussion:
000
WTNT45 KNHC 040238
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT
THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA. ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO
TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE
CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR
CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND
HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN
ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON
SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Nice to see beven on this one.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
This Morning: Its an open wave
Tonight: BEST LOOKING 50MPH TS THATS BEEN UNDERESTIMATED. ITS AT LEAST 60MPH.

Isnt it amazing of how a cyclone cane change in a few hours?
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This is an image of Danny in 2009, OBVIOUSLY stronger than Ernesto, as it reached a maximum sustained wind speed of 60 MPH.
SARCASM Flag On
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Quoting cg2916:


I love how you guys know all the different forecasters. Man, I can't keep track of them. I just know names.


Oh, I don't. I have no idea who Landsea is. But Stewart is notoriously aggressive in his forecasts. And, actually, I'd rather have an aggressive forecast not pan out than a weak forecast be totally incorrect.
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Quoting AllStar17:


I'm sorry about that....but it's nice you are here.

Yeah, thanks
Quoting avthunder:
Wow, Ernesto looking pretty healthy tonight for a TS. Hopefully it misses the islands, but if it slips through the Yucatan Channel, that puts it in the GOM with no place to go and lots of warm water. A little concerning. Hope it stays weak and brings drought relief to Texas.

It is slowing down which means more strengthening, hopefully nothing bad happens but I got a bad feeling.
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3668. RkptMom
Long time lurker. I have learned so much following this Blog. I must say that Ernesto scares me. The intestification we have seen today in spite of wind shear and dry air and the current track. I am in So. Tx. (Corpus Christi area) and I keep seeing Texas over and over again in posts. We need the rain, but not a major. I hope this high pressure we have been under for weeks stays put and this becomes a Mexico storm.
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Anyone who buys a house or lives on the yucatan is a brave soul after all the hurricanes they get in my opinion:
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3666. cg2916
This is a very, very bad thing:

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
3665. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMFAOOO, he's sitting there at home waiting to change it all up.


I love how you guys know all the different forecasters. Man, I can't keep track of them. I just know names.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMFAOOO, he's sitting there at home waiting to change it all up.


Yep. He's saying "I'll show him!"
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3662. GetReal
Quoting emguy:


Its likely only moving at about 12mph as of right now...and 91L deffinately did it's part already...Its inflow jet on the SE flank imparted just enough weakening of the ridge that the Carribean Trade Winds got checked and are a non issue now...allowing Ernesto to get his influence on. He will continue to slow in the next 48-72 hours.


I have to agree with you that Ernesto no longer appears to be moving over 15 mph. That is again one of the reason that we are seeing Ernesto blossom tonight.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Ernesto is looking really good, don't know when I can make an Ernesto/TD6 forecast graphic and blog since my mouth is really sore and Im busy tomorrow.
Wow, Ernesto looking pretty healthy tonight for a TS. Hopefully it misses the islands, but if it slips through the Yucatan Channel, that puts it in the GOM with no place to go and lots of warm water. A little concerning. Hope it stays weak and brings drought relief to Texas.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Stewart is sitting there cringing at Landsea's TD 6 forecast.
LMFAOOO, he's sitting there at home waiting to change it all up.
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I'm happy we got the TD at 11.
So what if it gets the guillotine in 4 days at most.
Cheers..to TD6.
Might even get a quickie TS to pad the numbers.
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00
WTNT41 KNHC 040242
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting 19N81W:
We all live by what the nhc says usually who thinks they have no idea on this one in terms of intensity .....
I don't think they are seeing the same thing we are seeing. With the organization that has occured throughout the day there is no way IMO that winds have only increased from 40 mph this morning to 50 mph tonight.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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