Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GHOSTY1:
Can someone please tell me when these high shear conditions or whatever is coming to downgrade Ernesto the last couple days will finally affect him? right now i just think people are just downcasting for no reason because according to them Ernesto should have been gone from the beginning.

Wind shear and trade winds are now a non-factor. Dry air is not really affecting the storm either.

It's smooth-sailing for Ernesto from here on out.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31469
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It makes sense to see Ernesto's cloud tops warming just a bit this evening. It is diurnal minimum after all. Just as long as they don't dissipate much, the storm will be fine.



I see a man's face. lol
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3905. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


What does rotation in a storm imply?
cyclonic turning of the atomsphere without it no storm can form
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting TomTaylor:
what a tease lol


Dude, I thought Drak was joking. Turns out he actually did flee the scene. What a chicken.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
3903. gator23
Quoting MississippiWx:


Oh gee. You, again, with your personal agenda against Levi. Sigh.

Pretty sure he never hid. In fact, would you like to go back and watch the video that he made pointing out his mistakes that he made on Debby, Mr. Perfect?

Hi to you too! I got nothing against Levi at all. Hes a big boy he can handle a little ribbing. He doesnt need you to defend him
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To be honest, Ernesto might be "the one" to hit USA... I know it's still early in the game, but I ain't liking the look of the storm. It's getting stronger.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7903
3901. scott39
The psth of Ernesto is going to depend on if the high over OK. and TX builds S. If it does mexico or S Texas would get it. if that same high does not move S,then Ernesto should fine the weakness in the ridge and head more N.
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3900. GHOSTY1
Can someone please tell me when these high shear conditions or whatever is coming to downgrade Ernesto the last couple days will finally affect him? right now i just think people are just downcasting for no reason because according to them Ernesto should have been gone from the beginning.
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If Ernesto retains his current general size, this is going to a very large storm which will impact a significant chunk of real estate both in the Caribbean and for several hundred miles from, and inland, from the point of eventual landfall.

First in line are our friends in the Caribbean and it looks for now that portions of Hispanola, and certainly Jamaica, Cuba, and the Caiman Islands are going to be directly affected by this storm whether from direct impact or from being on the dirty side of the NE quadrant as it passes just to their South. Call them and let them know if you have relatives or friends in those countries.

For Gulf residents, a large storm means lots of rain before a potential landfall which translates into soggy trees and weakened limbs and roots before higher impact winds later on. Also consider, if you have the time this weekend, and resources, to trim back trees and limbs which could fall and damage your home or other outside property.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Ernesto needs to slow down.


It has from 24 mph last night to 18 mph now!
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Quoting Drakoen:
LOL! Good night blog :)
what a tease lol
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Just ignore jason he's been wrong the whole way!!! lol!!


Even thou his opinion can be heard...
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3895. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh partial pass of Ernesto
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
I officially label ilovehurricanes13 a downcaster.


You can also label him Jason, a troll, and wrong about Ernesto every second since its inception.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Just ignore jason he's been wrong the whole way!!! lol!!
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Quoting gator23:

Unless hes wrong in which case he will hide... again...


Oh gee. You, again, with your personal agenda against Levi. Sigh.

Pretty sure he never hid. In fact, would you like to go back and watch the video that he made pointing out his mistakes on Debby, Mr. Perfect?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting TomTaylor:
Dry air out ahead of it, SHIPS text shows the upper environment will become slightly less favorable, trade winds in the central Caribbean will be accelerating some as they naturally do, and the intensity models suggest a drop in intensity at this time.

I'll admit now that the weakening may be a little overdone as the upper level winds will still be light, and Ernesto has consistently defied our global models. But I already made the forecast so I'll ride this one out for now lol

Really excite to see how this turns out though. Intensity forecasts are fun, though seriously limited lol

If you mean the RH values drop 1% then sure, it becomes slightly less favorable. :P

It seems as if Ernesto has gained enough intensity to disrupt the trade winds ahead of it. Not only was this visible before the sun went down (the east to west flow turned more north to south), but the system has slowed down considerably today.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31469
Ernesto needs to slow down.

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


My sentiments exactly.


Hi AtHome...not sure if you saw my other post.

Anyways, I just got on here and was wondering your thoughts on Ernesto?
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
Tropical Storm Ernesto will be a tropical wave in 24 hours from now..dry air and wind shear from the north will weaking it a lot!!


Why do you think that would happen J?

Even by the animations you posted, you can see that it is holding together, even getting more organized..?
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Quoting cg2916:
Rotation in Ernesto becoming more apparent in the last few satellite frames.


What does rotation in a storm imply?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5115
3885. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Careful, Cosmic. You're getting like me.
then there will be 2
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Winds have shifted where the wildfire near Noble is now moving rapidly north, rather than northeast, as it was earlier in the day. An orange glow can be seen now about 5 miles west of 180th off Hwy 9, going south to north for about a mile. On local tv they said just a little while ago that they "don't have the resources to fight it". Firefighters are trying to save the houses at the present time. At sunset the smoke stopped coming over us in Pottawatomie county and had started traveling north. You could see a wall of smoke to the west. It is going to be hard to tell what is going on, all night.

Reports are out that someone saw a person in a blue or black truck throwing a burning piece of trash out of their window near the fire in Luther. With as many fires that have popped up everywhere all in one day here, it would appear that an arsonist(s) are running loose in Oklahoma and need to be stopped, immediately.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
Tropical Storm Ernesto will be a tropical wave in 24 hours from now..dry air and wind shear from the north will weaking it a lot!!


absolutely not.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Dry air out ahead of it, SHIPS text shows the upper environment will become slightly less favorable, trade winds in the central Caribbean will be accelerating some as they naturally do, and the intensity models suggest a drop in intensity at this time.

I'll admit now that the weakening may be a little overdone as the upper level winds will still be light, and Ernesto has consistently defied our global models. But I already made the forecast so I'll ride this one out for now lol

Really excite to see how this turns out though. Intensity forecasts are fun, though seriously limited lol


That's what they said about the area Ernesto is currently in and look what happened.
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3881. gator23
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:


i think Levi will be right its will be a tropical wave again!!

Unless hes wrong in which case he will hide... again...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, and creating a weakness in the ridge while Ernesto is in the NW Caribbean. Yuck...


My sentiments exactly.
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Quoting Grothar:


Careful, Cosmic. You're getting like me.
I don't think that would be the worst thing in the world.
.
I couldn't resist....Rita..it was just a little joke.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Anything significant about the slowdown? And thanks for your well informed opinions on these matters.


Well, the slowdown will reduce the shear burden Ernesto was putting on himself. It is likely that the UL cyclone can now catch up and he can become vertically stacked..
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3877. gator23
Can someone explain to me why we are debating a weakness near texas when there is an obvious weakness over the Florida panhandle?
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
Tropical Storm Ernesto will be a tropical wave in 24 hours from now..dry air and wind shear from the north will weaking it a lot!!


Really. Hmmm....should I trust you or the NHC? I don't think your forecast is reasonable.
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Quoting huntsvle:


Hi mississippiwx, welcome back...and just to remind you...I totally said that last night when everyone else said no.....


Hello. I didn't see you say that, so I didn't say no. :-) It's a possibility.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
3873. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:
LOL! Good night blog :)
we are not all leaving

hello drak good to see ya
all is well i guess
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
oops... someone already posted iti
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do you forecast it to weaken? There's nothing to assume it will since the system has showed that trade winds are a non-issue.
Dry air out ahead of it, SHIPS text shows the upper environment will become slightly less favorable, trade winds in the central Caribbean will be accelerating some as they naturally do, and the intensity models suggest a drop in intensity at this time.

I'll admit now that the weakening may be a little overdone as the upper level winds will still be light, and Ernesto has consistently defied our global models. But I already made the forecast so I'll ride this one out for now lol

Really excite to see how this turns out though. Intensity forecasts are fun, though seriously limited lol
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, and creating a weakness in the ridge while Ernesto is in the NW Caribbean. Yuck...


Hi mississippiwx, welcome back...and just to remind you...I totally said that last night when everyone else said no.....
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Alright, Drak. What's it going to do? You nailed Debby, so now you know you have to give an opinion. :-)
Quoting Drakoen:
LOL! Good night blog :)

LOL.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31469
Quoting emguy:


Considering this NHC advisory is a long term average speed, this is still a significant slowdown...in fact 25% slower than earlier today. Otherwise, in the shorter tern, he's gotten even slower.


Anything significant about the slowdown? And thanks for your well informed opinions on these matters.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5115
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2012 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 13:54:29 N Lon : 65:39:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 995.3mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.7 3.8

Center Temp : -58.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 66km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.6 degrees
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ok...just finished checking the hurricane supply box. We have oreos, peanut butter crackers and candles....so we're good!
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Quoting Drakoen:
LOL! Good night blog :)


LOL...What a cop out!!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
I don't disagree with Levi much, but in this case (just watched the video).. Levi literally thinks Ernesto is going to stay weak.
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3862. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pcola57:


Getting closer..
should have a full image by sunrise
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Dennis. I won't mention our high today or rain chances. lol :)


Hi AtHome....
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3860. Drakoen
LOL! Good night blog :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
GFS bringing 91l this way



Yeah, and creating a weakness in the ridge while Ernesto is in the NW Caribbean. Yuck...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
GFS bringing 91l this way

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Quoting Drakoen:


Does he have papers that cite the physics behind dry air induced convection? I would like to know.


Alright, Drak. What's it going to do? You nailed Debby, so now you know you have to give an opinion. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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