Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Tex. No I didn't see your other post. Sorry they are flying by. It's still wait and see as usual. But this one could get bad for somebody. So definitely keeping an eye on it. And if 91l is anywhere around and Ernesto is strong enough that could drag him north. Not good.


Hmmm,ok. I hate wait and sees. Can't we just know already... LOL

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WOOOW...GFS dissipates TD 6, before ernesto landfall in yucatan peninsula
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Thats a dry wall in front of TD6....

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gfs total meltdown-has ernesto sitting over the yucatan and boc for days and days.
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3953. Skyepony (Mod)
NRL Aerosol/dust
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Blog eating posts?

yeah, it ate mine up like it was chocolate
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3950. GHOSTY1
Quoting MississippiWx:
Blog eating posts?

What do you mean?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernie mad:






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Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernie mad:



Sure is, looking like he's ready to burn my intensity forecast. Oh well lol
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Quoting thelmores:


When you make a statement like that, its best to back it up with supporting data...... a link, a pic..... something......

See post 3890
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What the... is the blog loading so sloooooow?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernie mad:



Oh lord... Ernesto getting angry...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
3944. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JLPR2:
Does anyone have a chart, map, values, something of how dry the air will be for TD6 as it moves WNW?

**No SAL maps or the one from LSU.


hope this helps not relly much dry air in front of 06L

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3943. leo305
The main ball of convection didn't collapse.. it's venting.. the system is developing a CDO
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.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Does anyone have a chart, map, values, something of how dry the air will be for TD6 as it moves WNW?

**No SAL maps or the one from LSU.


It will be dry due to that anticyclone in mid Atl.... but looking...

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Quoting Drakoen:


Does he have papers that cite the physics behind dry air induced convection? I would like to know.


Yea...... he has papers...... Job 1.5's! LOL
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Quoting MississippiWx:


You can also label him Jason, a troll, and wrong about Ernesto every second since its inception.

Better yet, he is an instigator...he will post anything to get a rise out someone. From just reading and looking at the pictures, which I am sure he is better at, he knows what it has done and what it will, or is supposed to do, so that what he posts is nothing more than fuel for someone's fire. That is why very few to almost nobody ever replies to him.
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Quoting shmdaddy:
ok...just finished checking the hurricane supply box. We have oreos, peanut butter crackers and candles....so we're good!


Your gonna need some beer. Hot beer is better than no beer at all.
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I need to see other big convection before i get the bed
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah on SHIPS, I'm referring to TPW and WV imagery for dry air.

Regardless,
I still think this will strengthen a little more, peak as a strong TS, not reaching hurricane status, then leveling off in intensity as it gets under Hispaniola, weakening to a moderate TS (~50MPH) around Jamaica. After it passes Jamaica I believe it will intensify again.

Personally
I seriously doubt we will see nothing but intensification over the next 120hrs as the NHC forecast calls for.

you do know south of Jamaica there is very deep TCHP. even if conditions are not completely favourable, these TCHP's will have an effect on Ernesto.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
From Storm to Depresion?... Why?



The forecaster explains his reasoning in his report.
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I find it interesting that the NHC completely dissipates TD 6 when 2 models bring it up to hurricane strength.
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Blog eating posts?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
3930. GHOSTY1
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


It's been in the 100s all week in San Antonio. The high pressure has been stubborn. We're on the southern portion of the death ridge that's causing the heatwave in Okla. Maybe the ridge isn't as stubborn in E TX - it's not unusual for E TX

The meteorologists in Houston have been forecasting it to be moving further north which is why our temperatures here in Houston are forcast to lower. The high doesnt affect the whole state equally, Texas obviously is a very large state and will definately have very different temperatures spread around. East Texas to San Antonio is a good distance apart, not trying to sound rude so dont take offense. The reason the temperatures in N. Texas are probably building up is because the high pressure is moving North like theyre saying so that would leave our coasts vulnerable. Thats just my opinion. :P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed out for the morning guys. Have to sleep some so that I can get up early to watch recon.

Until then, please behave and try not to kill each other, okay?
Good night... and I'm sure they'll kill each other ;)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
Very inteliigent experiment???


Italy begins drilling into super-volcano that, if erupts, could kill millions
Posted on August 4, 2012
August 4, 2012 ITALY Across the bay of Naples from Pompeii, where thousands were incinerated by Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD, lies a hidden super volcano that could kill millions in a catastrophe many times worse, scientists say.....

Link




"the project, funded by the multi-national International Continental Scientific Drilling Programme, has run into major opposition from some local scientists who say the drilling itself could cause a dangerous eruption or earthquake".


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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi AtHome...not sure if you saw my other post.

Anyways, I just got on here and was wondering your thoughts on Ernesto?


Hi Tex. No I didn't see your other post. Sorry they are flying by. It's still wait and see as usual. But this one could get bad for somebody. So definitely keeping an eye on it. And if 91l is anywhere around and Ernesto is strong enough that could drag him north. Not good.
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3925. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


What does rotation in a storm imply?



here is some more info for ya

The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.

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3924. gator23
Quoting yesterway:


No need. The thing is not coming anywhere near Florida for obvious reasons.

Which are? A weakness over the panhandle, a strengthening storm or a massive high pressure ridge blocking it from going west to Texas? I want to know why Texas seems to be the thinking when most models have it going to MEX
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3923. Grothar
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WOOOW...GFS dissipates TD 6, before ernesto landfall in yucatan peninsula
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Ernie mad:



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If you mean the RH values drop 1% then sure, it becomes slightly less favorable. :P

It seems as if Ernesto has gained enough intensity to disrupt the trade winds ahead of it. Not only was this visible before the sun went down (the east to west flow turned more north to south), but the system has slowed down considerably today.
Yeah on SHIPS, I'm referring to TPW and WV imagery for dry air.

Regardless,
I still think this will strengthen a little more, peak as a strong TS, not reaching hurricane status, then leveling off in intensity as it gets under Hispaniola, weakening to a moderate TS (~50MPH) around Jamaica. After it passes Jamaica I believe it will intensify again.

Personally
I seriously doubt we will see no weakening over the next 120hrs as the NHC forecast calls for.
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3918. JLPR2
Does anyone have a chart, map, values, something of how dry the air will be for TD6 as it moves WNW?

**No SAL maps or the one from LSU.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


microwave is showing an eyewall forming


When you make a statement like that, its best to back it up with supporting data...... a link, a pic..... something......
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Quoting huntsvle:


I still disagree. I live in the coastal portion of Texas and we have most definitely not been rain free. With the exception of the last few days, we have seen outflow from disturbances light up some convection. Likewise, models already indicating an increased POPs as well as a decrease in temps for the HGX area...

NOT to mention, the CPC has placed coastal TX in the area for heavy rain in their 8-14 day forecast. I think they're also onto something. I don't think this high will retrograde back to the 4 corners as progged...but I would expect it to back off enough and have enough weakness to help guide something tropical in. Also, if an elongated trough were to develop it would also have an impact on the steering.


It's been in the 100s all week in San Antonio. The high pressure has been stubborn. We're on the southern portion of the death ridge that's causing the heatwave in Okla. Maybe the ridge isn't as stubborn in E TX - it's not unusual for E TX
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3914. GHOSTY1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wind shear and trade winds are now a non-factor. Dry air is not really affecting the storm either.

It's smooth-sailing for Ernesto from here on out.

Thanks, i thought that was true but i just had to ask why some of the bloggers keep on saying that this shear is gonna come and destroy him and it still hasnt happened and will continue not happening every they say it will, so please continue downcasters :P.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed out for the morning guys. Have to sleep some so that I can get up early to watch recon.

Until then, please behave and try not to kill each other, okay?


weren't you just giving Drak crap? ;) night TA
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed out for the morning guys. Have to sleep some so that I can get up early to watch recon.

Until then, please behave and try not to kill each other, okay?


No promises.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
I'm headed out for the morning guys. Have to sleep some so that I can get up early to watch recon.

Until then, please behave and try not to kill each other, okay?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31317
Sup gangstas, Ernesto is a hurricane at 11am book it.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
If Ernesto retains his current general size, this is going to a very large storm which will impact a significant chunk of real estate both in the Caribbean and for several hundred miles from, and inland, from the point of eventual landfall.

First in line are our friends in the Caribbean and it looks for now that portions of Hispanola, and certainly Jamaica, Cuba, and the Caiman Islands are going to be directly affected by this storm whether from direct impact or from being of the dirty side of the NE quadrant as it passes just to their South. Call them and let them know if you have relatives or friends in those countries.

For Gulf residents, a large storm means lots of rain before a potential landfall which translates into soggy trees and weakened limbs and roots before higher impact winds later on. Also consider, if you have the time this weekend, and resources, to trim back trees and limbs which could fall and damage your home or other outside property.


VERY GOOD advice.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
Quoting gator23:
Can someone explain to me why we are debating a weakness near texas when there is an obvious weakness over the Florida panhandle?


No need. The thing is not coming anywhere near Florida for obvious reasons.
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Quoting GHOSTY1:
Can someone please tell me when these high shear conditions or whatever is coming to downgrade Ernesto the last couple days will finally affect him? right now i just think people are just downcasting for no reason because according to them Ernesto should have been gone from the beginning.

Wind shear and trade winds are now a non-factor. Dry air is not really affecting the storm either.

It's smooth-sailing for Ernesto from here on out.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31317

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.