Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Have a great night thirdshifters. Tomorrow the madness continues. Clarity shall come with morning light. Can't wait to see what Jeff has to say about this madness. If your here Skyepony, great call on the inverted trough last night just east of Florida and it's possible development. I like very much how you never seek any affirmation for your genius. G'night you fine bloggers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Twinkster:
I swear some of y'all need to learn how to trust the models and the experts at the NHC. Chances are they will be right more often than bloggers on this website. Also you guys need to realize that not every storm in the caribbean is going to rapidly intensify especially when it is moving at 18 MPH right into dry air. I believe in this case that the NHC intensity forecast is spot on for this situation.


Sure. Let's all sit here, hold hands, sing "Kumbaya", and never question any decision the NHC makes. Boy, what a fun blog that would be...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you have a heat avatar therefore nothing you say I can take seriously

i swear i love this blog! way to go! epic reply
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Quoting DataNerd:



That's called outflow.


I did eventually figure it out :) Thanks
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Ernesto is taking a beating from that westerly shear.


Are we watching the same storm? LOL

Did you see Ernesto 24hrs ago? It looks 100% better now!
Last night, I had a T-storm that came over my house which had more convection than Ernesto! :D
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't really like doing these kind of things, but to get a better idea of my thoughts on Ernesto's future intensity (and for fun) figured I'd make my own unofficial intensity forecast


Tom's Unofficial Intensity Forecast For Fun (TUIFFF)

0-12H Slight Strengthening to a Strong TS (60-65) by 12H
12-24H Intensity Levels Off
24-48H Slight Weakening to a Moderate TS (50-60MPH) by 48hrs
48-60H Intensity Levels Off, Possible Slight Weakening, Moderate TS (45-50)
Beyond 72H Gradual Intensification Resumes


NHC believes differently than you
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you have a heat avatar therefore nothing you say I can take seriously


1. Comment #4000!
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Guess I shoulda looked at that, huh? Just saw a lot of convection get blown east again is all. Didn't realize the shear had fallen that far.


What you are seeing now is actually a nice outflow channel.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Guess I shoulda looked at that, huh? Just saw a lot of convection get blown east again is all. Didn't realize the shear had fallen that far.



That's called outflow.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
LOL you guys act like Levi cares what any of you think. Just drop it for christs sake.
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Quoting Josihua2:
Oh ernesto if you could only grow to the size of the GOM or bigger while in the GOM at catogory 1 strength, spreading your moisture over a large portion of the US......... we need it.... 100+ degrees everyday is annoying...... sigh aww who am i kidding :/



Similar to what Hurricane Ike did?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Twinkster:
I swear some of y'all need to learn how to trust the models and the experts at the NHC. Chances are they will be right more often than bloggers on this website. Also you guys need to realize that not every storm in the caribbean is going to rapidly intensify especially when it is moving at 18 MPH right into dry air. I believe in this case that the NHC intensity forecast is spot on for this situation.


+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Twinkster:
I swear some of y'all need to learn how to trust the models and the experts at the NHC. Chances are they will be right more often than bloggers on this website. Also you guys need to realize that not every storm in the caribbean is going to rapidly intensify especially when it is moving at 18 MPH right into dry air. I believe in this case that the NHC intensity forecast is spot on for this situation.


you have a heat avatar therefore nothing you say I can take seriously
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Quoting thelmores:


Levi goes to College, majoring in physics....... perhaps you should give the young man the respect he deserves!





Not sure why were having a blog war again. If you disagree with someone to the point of being mad at them then don't read what they type.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Guys leave Levi alone. He is a smart young man that spends time making nice tidbits for us. He deserves respect on this blog.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Ernesto needs to slow down.



He has from 23mph to 18mph I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I swear some of y'all need to learn how to trust the models and the experts at the NHC. Chances are they will be right more often than bloggers on this website. Also you guys need to realize that not every storm in the caribbean is going to rapidly intensify especially when it is moving at 18 MPH right into dry air. I believe in this case that the NHC intensity forecast is spot on for this situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


what?



Guess I shoulda looked at that, huh? Just saw a lot of convection get blown east again is all. Didn't realize the shear had fallen that far.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Oh ernesto if you could only grow to the size of the GOM or bigger while in the GOM at catogory 1 strength, spreading your moisture over a large portion of the US......... we need it.... 100+ degrees everyday is annoying...... sigh aww who am i kidding :/
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Quoting MississippiWx:


?

ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
seems.to.be.getting.bigger..dvorak
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The Blog ate one of my posts recently but gonna get some sleep. Remind/call your folks who may be affected to look at preliminary preparations over the weekend at the latest for the Greater Antilles east from Hispanola (tomorrow) and by Monday/Tuesday at the latest for interests along the Gulf coast. For those who have to work (most of us I suppose), you might not have time to get all your supplies and things in order trying to rush to stores at the last minute come next Thursday or Friday as the storm is closer to landfall after work.

See Yall tomorrow at some point.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9205
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Ernesto is taking a beating from that westerly shear.


what?

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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Ernesto is taking a beating from that westerly shear.


?

ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. I can dig it. And this year is especially is being hard to nail down these systems.


Yeah, I will be surprised though if it comes here. SE Texas...but then I could be in denial...
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Quoting gator23:

Unless hes wrong in which case he will hide... again...


Levi goes to College, majoring in physics....... perhaps you should give the young man the respect he deserves!
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hmmm,ok. I hate wait and sees. Can't we just know already... LOL



Lol. I can dig it. And this year is especially is being hard to nail down these systems.
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.
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Ernesto is taking a beating from that westerly shear.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Post 3955. Nice graphic. Especially because it shows the deep pocket of dry air ahead of Ernesto. If he maintains during this hurdle....call me a believer.
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Looking good:
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3975. Buhdog
Quoting thelmores:


With all due respect....... Levi is correct about the speed of the trade winds......

Add, the location of Ernesto has been VERY unkind to MANY storms in the past! Earned the nickname the dead zone......

Bottom line, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Levi and many of the models....

I can tell you this..... it can fizzle just as fast as strengthen..... I am reasonable sure, you won't see much more strengthening, if any..... until Ernesto reaches the longitudinal vicinity of Jamaica.....

But to be honest, Intensity of a storm is VERY difficult...... especially given the current strength of Ernesto and its location......



what he said. Long trekkers make me nervous when they conserve their energy for good conditions.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:





Take him seriously... history says that he killed more people than Hitler...
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3973. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


hope this helps not relly much dry air in front of 06L



Helped somewhat, it is interesting it differs from the SAL map, I guess we have humid SAL.

Quoting Skyepony:
NRL Aerosol/dust


Interesting, from the looks of it, TD 6 might die mostly because of shear.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
To be honest, Ernesto might be "the one" to hit USA... I know it's still early in the game, but I ain't liking the look of the storm. It's getting stronger.


Blue...I've been saying that for three days now.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Tom? I thought Ernesto's environment was supposed to improve, with the only detriment being dry air.
It is for the short term. Beyond about a day it will become a little less favorable, though still good enough for intensification to occur.

Keep in mind i did this for fun, I'm not saying by any means it will come true and you should certainly refer to the NHC for all official forecasts
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Quoting shmdaddy:
ok...just finished checking the hurricane supply box. We have oreos, peanut butter crackers and candles....so we're good!


pffffff...

If you don't have beer..... you don't have the essentials! LOL
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Quoting JLPR2:
Does anyone have a chart, map, values, something of how dry the air will be for TD6 as it moves WNW?

**No SAL maps or the one from LSU.


Here's the northern hemisphere water vapor loop:

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Key word here is "expected." My local met just stated that he wouldn't rule out an extreme northern shift with even a "Debby" like scenario. FL is not out of woods yet.


Who? I know Rob didn't say something foolish like that lol
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I see we have TD#6 forecast to strengthen then weaken,before reaching the islands,but I'm watching this one closely. Luis had its issues on its way down and grew to be a monster of a storm. In Antigua we went indoors on the Sunday and never saw the light of day until the Wednesday. By then half of the roof was gone and an open space where the glass windows used to be. Not scared though!
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Quoting reedzone:
I don't disagree with Levi much, but in this case (just watched the video).. Levi literally thinks Ernesto is going to stay weak.


With all due respect....... Levi is correct about the speed of the trade winds......

Add, the location of Ernesto has been VERY unkind to MANY storms in the past! Earned the nickname the dead zone......

Bottom line, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Levi and many of the models....

I can tell you this..... it can fizzle just as fast as strengthen..... I am reasonable sure, you won't see much more strengthening, if any..... until Ernesto reaches the longitudinal vicinity of Jamaica.....

But to be honest, Intensity of a storm is VERY difficult...... especially given the current strength of Ernesto and its location......
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3965. GHOSTY1
the posts will eventually pop up. i thought the same thing and was about to repost again but it took a minute but all ended well :P
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:


A surface ridge is expected to build in near Florida which will steer Ernesto well to our south and "close" any weakness over the Florida Panhandle. That same ridge
will send 91L into Florida and bring heavy rain and gusty winds by Sunday.


Key word here is "expected." My local met just stated that he wouldn't rule out an extreme northern shift with even a "Debby" like scenario. FL is not out of woods yet.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
TCHP is something we consider for slow moving or already very intense storms. Tropical storms dont upwell as much water (unless they're slow moving) so Im not really looking at TCHP for the short term.

Anyway, it's just a forecast for fun. If Ernesto burns me, that's fine with me.


Wait... if youre wrong it wont crush your soul?
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This blog is being a wacko.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
Quoting AussieStorm:

you do know south of Jamaica there is very deep TCHP. even if conditions are not completely favourable, these TCHP's will have an effect on Ernesto.
TCHP is something we consider for slow moving or already very intense storms. Tropical storms dont upwell as much water (unless they're slow moving) so Im not really looking at TCHP for the short term.

Anyway, it's just a forecast for fun. If Ernesto burns me, that's fine with me.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Blog eating posts?


YES! Lol. thought it was me. :)
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't really like doing these kind of things, but to get a better idea of my thoughts on Ernesto's future intensity (and for fun) figured I'd make my own unofficial intensity forecast


Tom's Unofficial Intensity Forecast For Fun (TUIFFF)

0-12H Slight Strengthening to a Strong TS (60-65) by 12H
12-24H Intensity Levels Off
24-48H Slight Weakening to a Moderate TS (50-60MPH) by 48hrs
48-60H Intensity Levels Off, Possible Slight Weakening, Moderate TS (45-50)
Beyond 72H Gradual Intensification Resumes


Tom? I thought Ernesto's environment was supposed to improve, with the only detriment being dry air.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Might as well go to bed as well. Ernesto better be at 60mph when I wake up tomorrow.
Night all.


If not stronger. It's definitely becoming more symmetrical. Wouldn't be surprised to find a hurricane sometime tomorrow, probably in the latter half of the day.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Tex. No I didn't see your other post. Sorry they are flying by. It's still wait and see as usual. But this one could get bad for somebody. So definitely keeping an eye on it. And if 91l is anywhere around and Ernesto is strong enough that could drag him north. Not good.


Hmmm,ok. I hate wait and sees. Can't we just know already... LOL

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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