Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4057 - 4007

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Quoting MississippiWx:




LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
clearly.

Maybe I'll keep forecasts to myself in the future. They're just for fun and I purposely tried to make it entirely independent of the NHC. What kind of forecaster bases their forecast off another forecaster lol


Keep fighting the good fight. Post your thoughts, take the beating, then just give a slight "up yours" to the blog when you're right (orrrr just stay away if you're wrong :-D)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting MississippiWx:




oh my god that made my night wx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4054. Grothar
Quoting sunlinepr:
Or maybe you are correct....
Shear is braking Ernesto away....





Are you making that image go in reverse?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23703
This blog crack me up, haha :) I just hope it doesn't turn into WUnderground: After Dark like it did in couple of other blogs... oh, the horrors!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
Quoting TomTaylor:
clearly.

Maybe I'll keep forecasts to myself in the future. They're just for fun and I purposely tried to make it entirely independent of the NHC. What kind of forecaster bases their forecast off another forecaster lol


Don't do that. That is exactly the point of a blog...FRIENDLY discussion about storms and nobody has to agree with you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
There is no way this is still a 50 mph storm.


so what you think it is then I think you are right no way this is a 50MPH storm so what is it

Hurrican Hunters have a 12Z flight

Quoting sunlinepr:
Or maybe you are correct....
Shear is braking Ernesto away....




??????????????????????????????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:



dudee omg ur the best! hahahah
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4049. robj144
Quoting AllStar17:
I'm definitely going with the BAMD on this one!


I remember Jeanne doing a loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They cancelled recon due to Storm Position and scheduling.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Hmmmmmm.

:O omg a white ring...... were all gonna dieeeeee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm definitely going with the BAMD on this one!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:


NHC believes differently than you
clearly.

Maybe I'll keep forecasts to myself in the future. They're just for fun and I purposely tried to make it entirely independent of the NHC. What kind of forecaster bases their forecast off another forecaster lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Hmmmmmm.

Seems he's wrapping his convection around the COC!! Well on its way to strengthing more!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


PINHOLE EYE EVERYONE PANIC


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting sunlinepr:
Or maybe you are correct....
Shear is braking Ernesto away....





LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Hmmmmmm.


PINHOLE EYE EVERYONE PANIC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Hmmmmmm.


You wishhhhhh. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting sunlinepr:
Or maybe you are correct....
Shear is braking Ernesto away....






Oh sunline you smart***
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmmmmm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Sure. Let's all sit here, hold hands, sing "Kumbaya", and never question any decision the NHC makes. Boy, what a fun blog that would be...



I didn't mean it that way lol. Some of y'all go too overboard with TCHP. Yes TCHP means a cyclone has more fuel to work with but it doesn't mean much when a system is moving 18 MPH a speed in which very little upwelling will occur. People can disagree with certain things but when someone says it will be the "big one" for the U.S. when the GFS/ECMWF keep it very weak and the NHC only brings it to CAT 1 strength than yes I do have a problem. There is a reason why the global models don't strengthen this thing to a major hurricane. I love this blog for many reasons such as getting very good weather data and info especially during hurricane season. But there are way too many people on here posting uninformed nonsense. I have no problem with people posting and trying to learn but don't act like you know it all. I started watching this site in 2006 and joined in 2007. I would make my own blogs expressing my opinions and sit back and learn from more knowledgeable people on the main blog. I don't comment on here unless I have something I really want to say especially after the nonsense from 2010.

Good night everybody and keep tracking those storms. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a busy august and september comparable to 2004 with season dying down quickly after that

Rant over
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4036. robj144
Quoting sunlinepr:
Or maybe you are correct....
Shear is braking Ernesto away....





Nice rewinding picture there. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I believe Recon was cancelled cause they still had their technical problems with the data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any opinion on 91L? Is the hype over or could it still spark into something? thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Or maybe you are correct....
Shear is braking Ernesto away....



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the GFS and its ensembles have this one pegged.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Nope not until 6am edt



huh? Why did they reschedule wasn't it supposed to fly at 1 am?

Guess I am going to bed then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man this doesn't look like a 50 mph storm Lol!! :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Geez, I finally caught up,the blog was zipping along there when the HH were in the storm If I'M not mistaken they found 71mph by SMFR but Levi discounted it as a downdraft? in a intense thunderstorm because there was a rain maxima at the same time?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
There is no way this is still a 50 mph storm.


i swear this same comment was repeated 10 times within a 2 hour span!!! lolzzzz
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thelmores:


I am not mad...... just stating facts and asking for some respect......-

Perhaps you should consider what you wrote, and follow your own advice!

It's comments like these which keep me away from this blog..... but I digress! Nite all! :)



1. I don't what was said and I don't care/

2. Levi is entitled to his own opinion, whatever that was before mods removed the posts.

3. I am telling the blog as a whole, if you don't like what levi says to the point of it making you mad, then ignore it.

I think we are on the same page, but as far as "being considerate" remember this is the internet. Do not expect people to be nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DataNerd:
Recon should be airborne shortly if my times are correct.


Nope not until 6am edt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who said there are no different opinions on Ernesto?



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon was cancelled for the 0600z flight... (last I knew)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Lyk ths if u cry everytime.


LOL. <<<< A legitimate LOL.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting tropicfreak:
There is no way this is still a 50 mph storm.




Could be less.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is no way this is still a 50 mph storm.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
Quoting MississippiWx:


Like totez fo real! You da man!


Lyk ths if u cry everytime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DataNerd:





Not sure why were having a blog war again. If you disagree with someone to the point of being mad at them then don't read what they type.


I am not mad...... just stating facts and asking for some respect......-

Perhaps you should consider what you wrote, and follow your own advice!

It's comments like these which keep me away from this blog..... but I digress! Nite all! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Guess I shoulda looked at that, huh? Just saw a lot of convection get blown east again is all. Didn't realize the shear had fallen that far.

lol it was suppose too!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon should be airborne shortly if my times are correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That is such a great sentiment to have Mississippi, you're awesome lets never disagree okay?


Like totez fo real! You da man!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting stormchaser19:


NHC believes differently than you



Tom's Unofficial Intensity Forecast For Fun (TUIFFF)

0-12H Slight Strengthening to a Strong TS (60-65) by 12H
12-24H Intensity Levels Off
24-48H Slight Weakening to a Moderate TS (50-60MPH) by 48hrs
48-60H Intensity Levels Off, Possible Slight Weakening, Moderate TS (45-50)
Beyond 72H Gradual Intensification Resumes

NHC

INIT 04/0300Z 13.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Sure. Let's all sit here, hold hands, sing "Kumbaya", and never question any decision the NHC makes. Boy, what a fun blog that would be...


LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


What you are seeing now is actually a nice outflow channel.



Ernesto has become a very well organized tropical storm....and is already rebuilding the convection that tried to weaken earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Tom? I thought Ernesto's environment was supposed to improve, with the only detriment being dry air.


Sorry Tom, saw your answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Sure. Let's all sit here, hold hands, sing "Kumbaya", and never question any decision the NHC makes. Boy, what a fun blog that would be...


That is such a great sentiment to have Mississippi, you're awesome lets never disagree okay?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting galvestonhurricane:



Similar to what Hurricane Ike did?

ok i could work with that for sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey guys I'm back sorry about my absence my internet had its heart stopped I had to defib it so I am back now back to the tropics well Ernesto just gets better and better I can tell you this between 1am and the rest of the morning Ernesto will explode like a Nuke right now its like a MOAB bomb but add a Nuke to the mix well can't get anymore explosive and it seems that by the time we get the 5am advisory Jamaica should be under a TS watch however it may change to a Hurricane Watch as Ernesto I am expecting to possibly make it to hurricane status before it reaches Jamaica
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have a great night thirdshifters. Tomorrow the madness continues. Clarity shall come with morning light. Can't wait to see what Jeff has to say about this madness. If your here Skyepony, great call on the inverted trough last night just east of Florida and it's possible development. I like very much how you never seek any affirmation for your genius. G'night you fine bloggers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 4057 - 4007

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
50 °F
Mostly Cloudy