Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DataNerd:



Further east then the COC but close enough. You can see the clear area I am talking about though right?


Yes, I can. But I mentioned it before in kind of a joking manner. We need to see if recon finds anything tomorrow before making further judgments.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Think the HWRF went haywire.



...lol well something certainly happened.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Think the HWRF went haywire.


Oops!!! lol!
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Quoting DataNerd:



What happened there lol.
Computer Model Malfunction.
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Quoting huntsvle:
What happened to twinkster?? Comes in, enters one opinion and then runs away before he can defend himself?!? yeesh.


see post 4037
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4102. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks for the kind words and same to you. As far as the past, no worries. I'm pretty sure I've had half the members of the blog mad at me at one time or another. Part of the problem is I come across as pretty blunt, which is a character flaw of mine. :-) But yeah, we cool, we cool.



Half???????
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GFS places a Hurricane off Africa as Ernesto reaches Mexico....
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Quoting AllStar17:


Oh, I already beat you to it in a previous post....


Anyone have microwave imagery?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Think the HWRF went haywire.



Seems very clear and understandable to me.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Thought lights out was at 7PM at the nursing home. Do I need to call the front desk??


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Quoting AllStar17:


Oh, I already beat you to it in a previous post....



Further east then the COC but close enough. You can see the clear area I am talking about though right?
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4096. yqt1001
Microwave imagery has been stupid today over Ernesto. The last pass was 9 hours ago and even then it was a miss. There hasn't been a pass since the evening CDO formation.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Quoting emguy:
Current state of Ernesto...I'm putting together the forecast notes now, but this is the first step in talking about him. This is my take:

- Intensity wise, I agree with the NHC at 11PM, it's not stronger than 50mph yet. Why? Ernesto made a very robust move this evening, however, it's a component of formative stages in a slowly intesifying storm. This evening's blowup, collapsed somewhat, but increased organization and provided a "nest", a "stairstep" to the next level. Expect a new look to Ernesto in the coming hours that is even better organized, prehaps folled by a smaller regenerative cycle. This storm is not your typical 0-hurricane in 12 hour deal, it will continue to go through formative stages. This may last 12-36 hours more, but in each step, the storm will intensify from here on out until becoming a hurricane. At that point, we will see full organization and I expect this system to rapidly take off, and I do expect Category 3 in the Carribean.
- Outflow wise, the system is good in ALL quadrants. Earlier today, the outflow was inhibited on the western half...most notable on the west and southwest side. However, upper level cirrus is now rapidly expanding in ALL quadrants. The environment absolutely is ideal!!!! and seen well here. LINK
- Forward motion is significantly down and will continue to decrease. It's a note, but we've already discussed it.
- Another note we've discussed is that 91L is already an influence on Ernesto. The Inflow Jet on the SE Flank has already weakened the Carribean Trade Winds enough to allow the shear to drop, Ernesto to lower his forward speed, and get his groove on in the Carribean.

I'm going to be talking forecast in my next post...which I'm going to start typing momentarily. I am trying to stay simple with it, but it is going to be information top-heavy.


Good Stuff as always
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Think the HWRF went haywire.




What happened there lol.
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well guys I'm here all morning I'll be right back I'm going for a cup of coffee
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Quoting DataNerd:



14 N by 66 W

Looks like an eye trying to form.


Oh, I already beat you to it in a previous post....
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4091. Grothar
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I agree.


No you don't! Besides you have to respect me. I have four degrees and I take physics every year. :)
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Think the HWRF went haywire.

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14 N by 66 W

Looks like an eye trying to form.
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What happened to twinkster?? Comes in, enters one opinion and then runs away before he can defend himself?!? yeesh.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
After all Ernesto has gone through,Im still hearing a lot of folks downcast him. I'm kinda baffled really.I think he looks the best he ever has and could be a Hurricane come tomorrow morning! Am I out to lunch on this one?


No. You are out to dinner.

Seriously, though, Ernesto is a storm that needs to be taken seriously. Ignore those who come on here and purposely downcast the storm just to get a reaction.
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Quoting Grothar:
I disagree with all of you on everything.







Thought lights out was at 7PM at the nursing home. Do I need to call the front desk??
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The more I look at the last two frames of the JSL loop the more I think this is about to go into rapid intensification. I can see what looks like an eye forming, though its filled with a thunderstorm right now.


And it appears far better structurally then the strange transient feature that was seen yesterday morning.

Link
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Got to get some sleep... got to do some shopping tomorrow -__- and I would rather stay on here to track Ernesto... behave, y'all!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7898
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
After all Ernesto has gone through,Im still hearing a lot of folks downcast him. I'm kinda baffled really.I think he looks the best he ever has and could be a Hurricane come tomorrow morning! Am I out to lunch on this one?


I completely agree. I'm STILL thinking that Ernesto will make landfall as a Cat 2/3. ESPECIALLY now that it's slowed down a bit. I think he has a better chance of getting everything together before he makes it to the gulf, which will allow for nothing but growth and intensification.
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Quoting Grothar:
I disagree with all of you on everything.







FINE! FORGET YOU!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
After all Ernesto has gone through,Im still hearing a lot of folks downcast him. I'm kinda baffled really.I think he looks the best he ever has and could be a Hurricane come tomorrow morning! Am I out to lunch on this one?
Nope if the hurricane hunters get in there and discover winds at the surface at 75 mph. then you have your hurricane.
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4080. Grothar
Quoting sunlinepr:


Looks like a Script error on Levi's page.... But it looks interesting...




My word, the young man can shrink storms now! What is next?
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Lol I know we had our differences on here in the past but you seem like a pretty cool person lol...dont mind me i'm just a hot head with some people on here sometime...ask the STX guy or formally known as BTX something lol..but we cool now


Thanks for the kind words and same to you. As far as the past, no worries. I'm pretty sure I've had half the members of the blog mad at me at one time or another. Part of the problem is I come across as pretty blunt, which is a character flaw of mine. :-) But yeah, we cool, we cool.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Probably a 60-65 mph storm, perhaps pushing 70 mph.

I think its 70MPH when DMAX comes and HH flys it may then reach 75MPH
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah. I have a feeling Ernesto will end up stronger than I had forecasted, but I think the strengthening and weakening trends may still hold up.

We'll see.


I agree Tom. Ernesto already has a trend of that anyway. We've seen it over and over is satellite imagery. I think it's likely to see some ups in down for the next 24 hours or so. After that I doubt it.
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Quoting emguy:
Current state of Ernesto...I'm putting together the forecast notes now, but this is the first step in talking about him. This is my take:

- Intensity wise, I agree with the NHC at 11PM, it's not stronger than 50mph yet. Why? Ernesto made a very robust move this evening, however, it's a component of formative stages in a slowly intesifying storm. This evening's blowup, collapsed somewhat, but increased organization and provided a "nest", a "stairstep" to the next level. Expect a new look to Ernesto in the coming hours that is even better organized, prehaps folled by a smaller regenerative cycle. This storm is not your typical 0-hurricane in 12 hour deal, it will continue to go through formative stages. This may last 12-36 hours more, but in each step, the storm will intensify from here on out until becoming a hurricane. At that point, we will see full organization and I expect this system to rapidly take off, and I do expect Category 3 in the Carribean.
- Outflow wise, the system is good in ALL quadrants. Earlier today, the outflow was inhibited on the western half...most notable on the west and southwest side. However, upper level cirrus is now rapidly expanding in ALL quadrants. The environment absolutely is ideal!!!! and seen well here. LINK
- Forward motion is significantly down and will continue to decrease. It's a note, but we've already discussed it.
- Another note we've discussed is that 91L is already an influence on Ernesto. The Inflow Jet on the SE Flank has already weakened the Carribean Trade Winds enough to allow the shear to drop, Ernesto to lower his forward speed, and get his groove on in the Carribean.

I'm going to be talking forecast in my next post...which I'm going to start typing momentarily. I am trying to stay simple with it, but it is going to be information top-heavy.


You appeared to do very well with Debby. I look forward to it.
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Quoting Grothar:
I disagree with all of you on everything.







I agree.
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After all Ernesto has gone through,Im still hearing a lot of folks downcast him. I'm kinda baffled really.I think he looks the best he ever has and could be a Hurricane come tomorrow morning! Am I out to lunch on this one?
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Quoting TomTaylor:
clearly.

Maybe I'll keep forecasts to myself in the future. They're just for fun and I purposely tried to make it entirely independent of the NHC. What kind of forecaster bases their forecast off another forecaster lol


Lol take it easy,i just shows other posibility that is more posible because they have every single tools in his disposition and even with that, they can be wrong, and for me your forecast is so rasonable is taking the same way of GFS
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Keep fighting the good fight. Post your thoughts, take the beating, then just give a slight "up yours" to the blog when you're right (orrrr just stay away if you're wrong :-D)
Yeah. I have a feeling Ernesto will end up stronger than I had forecasted, but I think the strengthening and weakening trends may still hold up.

We'll see.
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4071. Grothar
I disagree with all of you on everything.





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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

so what you think it is then I think you are right no way this is a 50MPH storm so what is it

Hurrican Hunters have a 12Z flight


??????????????????????????????????


Probably a 60-65 mph storm, perhaps pushing 70 mph.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting floridastorm:
Any opinion on 91L? Is the hype over or could it still spark into something? thanks


It could still develop. Could look fairly decent tomorrow.
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4068. emguy
Current state of Ernesto...I'm putting together the forecast notes now, but this is the first step in talking about him. This is my take:

- Intensity wise, I agree with the NHC at 11PM, it's not stronger than 50mph yet. Why? Ernesto made a very robust move this evening, however, it's a component of formative stages in a slowly intesifying storm. This evening's blowup, collapsed somewhat, but increased organization and provided a "nest", a "stairstep" to the next level. Expect a new look to Ernesto in the coming hours that is even better organized, prehaps folled by a smaller regenerative cycle. This storm is not your typical 0-hurricane in 12 hour deal, it will continue to go through formative stages. This may last 12-36 hours more, but in each step, the storm will intensify from here on out until becoming a hurricane. At that point, we will see full organization and I expect this system to rapidly take off, and I do expect Category 3 in the Carribean.
- Outflow wise, the system is good in ALL quadrants. Earlier today, the outflow was inhibited on the western half...most notable on the west and southwest side. However, upper level cirrus is now rapidly expanding in ALL quadrants. The environment absolutely is ideal!!!! and seen well here. LINK
- Forward motion is significantly down and will continue to decrease. It's a note, but we've already discussed it.
- Another note we've discussed is that 91L is already an influence on Ernesto. The Inflow Jet on the SE Flank has already weakened the Carribean Trade Winds enough to allow the shear to drop, Ernesto to lower his forward speed, and get his groove on in the Carribean.

I'm going to be talking forecast in my next post...which I'm going to start typing momentarily. I am trying to stay simple with it, but it is going to be information top-heavy.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Keep fighting the good fight. Post your thoughts, take the beating, then just give a slight "up yours" to the blog when you're right (orrrr just stay away if you're wrong :-D)


Lol I know we had our differences on here in the past but you seem like a pretty cool person lol...dont mind me i'm just a hot head with some people on here sometime...ask the STX guy or formally known as BTX something lol..but we cool now
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CDO is covered with a a thunderstorm complex atm.

Hard to tell whats going on.


Will go out on a limb and say we are at 60 mph right now, but I guess no one will know until morning due to the delayed recon.
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Quoting Josihua2:

dudee omg ur the best! hahahah


No, man. You da best!
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.
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Quoting Grothar:


Are you making that image go in reverse?


Looks like a Script error on Levi's page.... But it looks interesting...

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4062. yqt1001
Look at that banding on the west! :O



To think that is the side with the driest air. Maybe Ernesto won't do so bad in the ECarb.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Next recon is scheduled later on this morning...should be interesting what Ernesto looks like then! Maybe a surprise!!!
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4060. robj144
Quoting Grothar:


Are you making that image go in reverse?


No, the animation is forward, but the time stamp is reversed. :)
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Quoting TomTaylor:
clearly.

Maybe I'll keep forecasts to myself in the future. They're just for fun and I purposely tried to make it entirely independent of the NHC. What kind of forecaster bases their forecast off another forecaster lol
Nah, even if people disagree with you... doesn't mean you can't post it anymore. You can continues to post your forecast :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7898
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



Oh sunline you smart***


That animation has been in reverse all day...

Not due to HAARP but to some programing error / for next loop script....

Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:




LOL!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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