Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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5456. Patrap
AL052012 - Tropical Storm ERNESTO


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop

click Image for Loop




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
pressure has gone back down with ernesto getting stronger
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Quoting gordydunnot:
You can see the circulation on ex-91L OR what ever it is, pretty clearly on the last couple frames of visible in motion at the NHC. Looks like it's crossing at Cape Canaveral.


It is a very broad and weak circulation, but still seems to be moving NNW to me just SW of Cape C.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


we have passed that before, right?



nop
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Hey Levi when will you make your tidbit and since ernesto is larger will that influence a further northward path
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5451. Levi32
Recon penetrating the center again. Looks like pressure will be down a millibar or two from last time (last pass still visible left-hand side of this graph).

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Quoting KevyDuty:


Another new guy question here. Why do I need to click 'show' to see some posts and is that a setting that can be changed somewhere?


You can permanently change your filter setting, go to the top of the page under your username select "My Blog" on the right hand side of the new page select "Edit Blog Profile" then under "Viewing Comments" select "Show ALL". Update Blog Profile at the bottom.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but then we may have a new blog



hiting 10,000 would be cool too see


we have passed that before, right?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
5448. GetReal

Ernesto is tilted WNW in the direction that is now on. The ULL over the SE GOM, that is sinking SW is turning the steering pattern for Ernesto in the W. Caribbean towards the NW. IF Ernesto is a Cat 3 somewhere in the area of the Caymans, IMO, it will take a track similar to the GFDL. If weaker Cat 1, into MX.

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LEVI (or anyone else who can think of a good reason for this):

Any idea why the NHC forecast track shows WNW for the next 12 hours or so then flattens back to a westward motion for a bit?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
Quoting StormJunkie:


No problem, but use caution Kevy. Some of that has been impacted by personal opinions of others and/or groups of others; and not solely based on value added posts. It's why I keep mine set to show bad.


show all is best, set it to that kevy duty
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hate it when the GHCC has issues...Visible not working today it seems.

More than just visible it appears. Looks like everything got stopped at 7:45Z (which was coincidentally teh last frame I saw before I went to sleep last night).



*EDIT for correct image*
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Quoting yqt1001:
Floater on Florence up!

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GFS = LOL.... Opens Ernesto into a wave around 50-60 hours, before landfall... Sorry, all the global models are garbage for right now until we get G-4 data in them.
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Time: 15:45:00Z
Coordinates: 14.5167N 69.0167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,554 meters (~ 5,098 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.9 mb (~ 29.73 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 47° at 21 knots (From the NE at ~ 24.1 mph)
Air Temp: 19.0°C (~ 66.2°F)
Dew Pt: 10.2°C (~ 50.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
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5441. daws99
Thanks Levi and carolina
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Consensus on Belize, if this is the case, going to be MX storm all the way to the end. NHC is thinking this I bet



gfs ensembles are no longer fully with the operational..
your GFS consensus is shaky, especially if you think ernesto will do any sort of big strengthening into a cat 2 or cat 3 sometime down the road
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting KevyDuty:


A thousand thank yous! Found that you can also 'Show Best', so that's gonna save us all a ton of time right there! Haha!


No problem, but use caution Kevy. Some of that has been impacted by personal opinions of others and/or groups of others; and not solely based on value added posts. It's why I keep mine set to show bad.
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Florence

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1721
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think what happened to Ernesto, he is has grown significantly in size, this reorganization probably caused a temporary weakening , look for a steady increase in strength down the road.

yeah but I say rapid strengthening by 73W
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I wouldn't count out the artist formally known as 91L


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Hate it when the GHCC has issues...Visible not working today it seems.
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5432. Patrap
Melbourne
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
Quoting RitaEvac:
Consensus on Belize, if this is the case, going to be MX storm all the way to the end. NHC is thinking this I bet



I dont know if 2 vs. 2 is a consensus
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Give it another 24 hours and it might!



but then we may have a new blog



hiting 10,000 would be cool too see
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You can see the circulation on ex-91L OR what ever it is, pretty clearly on the last couple frames of visible in motion at the NHC. Looks like it's crossing at Cape Canaveral.
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Quoting stormcraig:
looks like the African wave train is in full force this year

El-nino in 3 weeks will slam the door on that train so I hope that you enjoy the storms now :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if this blog will hit 10,000

Give it another 24 hours and it might!
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Quoting 892mb:


Very cool earth image - what is the source?


Give it a try by clicking on it ....

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.j pg

Link
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5425. daws99
Thank you local met usually only go with NHC with advisories andnot that much advance notice with interim changes
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12z GFS showing what is left of 91 making it all the way up to N Fl?

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5423. pcola57
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFDL is taking this seriously


Don't like that one
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Quoting daws99:
GM all I am in jamaica and this is confusing to say the least, but any short term intensification and or track adjustmemt would greatly affect us here. Please advise worst case for next 48 hrs thank you


Regardless of strength, the system has grown dramatically in size. The good satellite appearance makes me think it is capable of quickly intensifying at any time... especially the closer it gets to Jamaica. Bottom line, TS warning means TS conditions are likely for you.... and if this thing strengthens today, I would expect hurricane watches to be added. The new WNW motion also does not bode well.... prepare for the worst and hope for the best
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
The latest microwave pass is pretty interesting. If I didn't know better, I'd almost say that it looks like there is a small developing eyewall in there (on the NW side).



However, based on the last recon and the lack of resolution on this pass, I think I'm going to say no on that one. :P
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5420. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
5419. guygee
Quoting KevyDuty:
I am logged in but I still get it. Some of those (actually I do read all of the posts when I'm on) are ones I always want to see.
Still can't locate a setting feature for it ...
If you are logged in then barbamz had your answer:
Quoting barbamz:
Go to the top of the page, change filter settings to "show all" and log in again.
The setting is on the upper right just above the posts.
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Quoting stormcraig:
looks like the African wave train is in full force this year


And it's only the 4th of August... lot of climbing up the hill of the season...
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Quoting stormcraig:
Ernesto weakening just goes to show you how confusing these storms can be and that we still have alot to learn


Happened a lot last year, too. Lack of vertical instability throughout the region. Blame the drought.
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I think what happened to Ernesto, he is has grown significantly in size, this reorganization probably caused a temporary weakening , look for a steady increase in strength down the road.
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5414. 892mb
Quoting sunlinepr:
GFS develops Big wave C Africa before exiting to water....


Very cool earth image - what is the source?
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An here we... go!

12Z GFS
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GFDL is taking this seriously
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Consensus on Belize, if this is the case, going to be MX storm all the way to the end. NHC is thinking this I bet

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5410. Levi32
Quoting daws99:
GM all I am in jamaica and this is confusing to say the least, but any short term intensification and or track adjustmemt would greatly affect us here. Please advise worst case for next 48 hrs thank you


Ernesto staying weak means he will miss Jamaica with room to spare, but he is larger now so expect spiral bands to bring heavy rain and tropical storm-force gusts at times starting tomorrow.
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5409. pcola57
Quoting KevyDuty:


I am logged in but I still get it. Some of those (actually I do read all of the posts when I'm on) are ones I always want to see.

Still can't locate a setting feature for it ...


It's the filter box at the beginning of the blog entries..up above..
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looks like the African wave train is in full force this year
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Quoting KevyDuty:


Another new guy question here. Why do I need to click 'show' to see some posts and is that a setting that can be changed somewhere?


Yes, it can be changed. At the upper right of the blog comment section there is a "filter" which you can change to "show good", "show bad", and "show all". I am not sure what the difference is between "Show bad" and "show all".
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.