Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I meant according to the NHC lol

Is recon heading out anytime soon?


I believe recon's not going out until tomorrow morning.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Agreed. It's probably because it's one of the best looking 60mph TS's we've ever seen.
Well I meant according to the NHC lol

Is recon heading out anytime soon?
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test
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Quoting Grothar:


They let us stay up so we can watch bloggers insult other bloggers and give them lesson on how to respect other bloggers. It all gets very confusing.

See when I was younger, we respected everyone so it wasn't really an issue.

Tell me again about the glory days of the Old Republic, Obi-Wan... ;D
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4153. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
06L/TD/XX/CX
MARK
14n/28w
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Probably the best looking 50MPH TS I ever saw



Agreed. It's probably because it's one of the best looking 60mph TS's we've ever seen.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting DataNerd:


14 N by 66 W

Looks like an eye trying to form.


He may be a tad north of the next forecast point,then again after looking at loops for 12 hours,I can't figure up from down anymore.I may have to take a break as I have like 4 days of Olympics to catch up on from my dvr,haven't watched the news or read the paper.Found out a few results yesterday when someone was posting spoiler info.
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4150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG OFF
MARK
13.81N/65.03W


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Quoting Grothar:


Well in those days we had to be very careful what we wrote. After all, most of it was "written in stone."


ROFL
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Quoting Grothar:


I posted that earlier in color. Did you like it?


Excelent post....
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4147. Skyepony (Mod)
Average Intensity Error for Ernesto.

(in knots)


Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr

LGEM 0 6.9 3.7 6.7 8.8
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Probably the best looking 50MPH TS I ever saw



Its pretty clear that 50mph is now an understatement. I'm willing to bet we're looking at 60-65 or maybe even closer to 70mph. I wouldn't be surprised if HH mission in the morning would find some SL winds at 70mph with higher gusts. And it would be easy to assume that likewise SLP has dropped some to the 998-1000mb range.

We might see a H1 by tomorrow afternoon.
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No numbers, but since it passed south I feel more. When they pass north the south side has hardly any bad weather. Easily 35mph gusts
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4144. JLPR2
OSCAT had a clear pass of Ernesto.

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4143. Grothar
Quoting sunlinepr:
Wave over E Africa, should be the one GFS is developing....



I posted that earlier in color. Did you like it?
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Quoting AllStar17:
It's not only the HWRF that went haywire. WU thinks the center of TD 6 is on the equator and prime meridian now!
LOL
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4141. Grothar
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


In 2000 BC?


Well in those days we had to be very careful what we wrote. After all, most of it was "written in stone."
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Probably the best looking 50MPH TS I ever saw

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Quoting AllStar17:
It's not only the HWRF that went haywire. WU thinks the center of TD 6 is on the equator and prime meridian now!



ummmm........mayhaps a data entry error somewhere?!?!?!? apparently the bloggers aren't the only ones with hand/eye coordination issues atm
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Quoting DataNerd:



Well that's unpleasant.

Certainly could happen!
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Wave over E Africa, should be the one GFS is developing....

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I suppose if wind shear were to increase and rip it apart or the High to the north buries it into Central America, but that would be a drastic change from the 18z run.


Lol that was a joke but okay
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4135. GHOSTY1
From looking at NOAA's satellite rainbow loop of Ernesto it looks like he's gettin his act together really well to me. Not to say it will stay that way but i believe it will.
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It's not only the HWRF that went haywire. WU thinks the center of TD 6 is on the equator and prime meridian now!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
4133. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL. Oh hush. You have the utmost respect of every blogger here.


Not so sure about that. I can give you a few names who cringe when I am on. I really don't know why
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Quoting Stormchaser121:



Well that's unpleasant.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:


Hmmm, which model is this? I know this isn't carved in stone or anything..still interesting.
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Interesting. 144Hr nogaps:
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


It is a scenario we still have to take into account at this point
I suppose if wind shear were to increase and rip it apart or the High to the north buries it into Central America, but that would be a drastic change from the 18z run.
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4128. Grothar
Quoting AllStar17:


Jerk!


Don't be so hard on the lad. I plussed you twice to even it out.
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Quoting Grothar:


They let us stay up so we can watch bloggers insult other bloggers and give them lesson on how to respect other bloggers. It all gets very confusing.

See when I was younger, we respected everyone so it wasn't really an issue.


LOL. Oh hush. You have the utmost respect of every blogger here.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting serialteg:
Strong gusts and rain in south PR Ponce. Wow!


numbers??
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It evens places a storm over Africa as Ernesto reaches Yucatan....
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Quoting Grothar:


They let us stay up so we can watch bloggers insult other bloggers and give them lesson on how to respect other bloggers. It all gets very confusing.

See when I was younger, we respected everyone so it wasn't really an issue.


In 2000 BC?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
After all Ernesto has gone through,Im still hearing a lot of folks downcast him. I'm kinda baffled really.I think he looks the best he ever has and could be a Hurricane come tomorrow morning! Am I out to lunch on this one?
The reason my intensities remained low is because of the model intensity forecasts. I didn't follow them exactly (if I did I would of brought Ernesto down to a TD) but I felt that such across the board weakening to a weak TS or TD had to mean something. Probably not the smartest idea given their poor handling of Ernestos intensity so far but oh well.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Think the HWRF went haywire.



It is a scenario we still have to take into account at this point
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Strong gusts and rain in south PR Ponce. Wow!
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Quoting AllStar17:


Jerk!
Haha sorry been on all day eye hand coordination is out of whack right now.
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4118. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thought lights out was at 7PM at the nursing home. Do I need to call the front desk??


They let us stay up so we can watch bloggers insult other bloggers and give them lesson on how to respect other bloggers. It all gets very confusing.

See when I was younger, we respected everyone so it wasn't really an issue.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, you're right. More like 1 or 2. I never make people mad. O:-)


Since we always agree I dont know whod be mad at you.
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Quoting DataNerd:



Today you mean (depending on where you are).

Its 12:30 am here.


Yes....on Saturday.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting Twinkster:


see post 4037


My bad. You should really be more vocal. Another opinion is always worth taking into consideration for sure!
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Quoting AllStar17:


Yes, I can. But I mentioned it before in kind of a joking manner. We need to see if recon finds anything tomorrow before making further judgments.



Today you mean (depending on where you are).

Its 12:30 am here.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
LOL 1 I accidentally hit the (-)


Jerk!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting Grothar:
I disagree with all of you on everything.







LOLOLOLOL Go figure :)
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Quoting Grothar:



Half???????


Yeah, you're right. More like 1 or 2. I never make people mad. O:-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting AllStar17:


Seems very clear and understandable to me.
LOL +1 I accidentally hit the (-)
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Quoting Grothar:


No you don't! Besides you have to respect me. I have four degrees and I take physics every year. :)


Maybe if you had 6....
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Quoting DataNerd:



Further east then the COC but close enough. You can see the clear area I am talking about though right?


Yes, I can. But I mentioned it before in kind of a joking manner. We need to see if recon finds anything tomorrow before making further judgments.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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