Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4207 - 4157

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Quoting MississippiWx:
Let's clear things up for real...

Next recon leaves out at 1030UTC.
Which is 6:30 AM EDT. If I'm not mistaken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JLPR2:
TD 6 holding on for the moment.




looks like a

one eyed giant purple people eater

huh gro
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


You must have took a break....


Yeah. Catching up on my daughter's day when she's not ignoring me and texting. lol so will be in and out. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting huntsvle:


I agree...aside from wrong, they've been all over the place. I like reading your for fun forecasts lol. They always pose something on which to think.
Thanks :)

It's fun doing them and its also a learning process, afterall the only way to get better is to practice and put your forecasts out there for others to comment on. Next time I'll pay more attention to the upper level environment and avoid model guidance which has been performing poorly with an existing storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Certainly possible. As I was saying in my forecast...lol jk.

Upper level environment is key once again. That outflow and light shear has allowed Ernesto to strengthen despite accelerating tradewinds and dry air ahead. Global model intensity forecast has been horrible so far.


To be honest, I don't think we've come far at all when it comes to intensity forecasts. As such, neither have the global models. Even hurricane specialist Todd Kimberlain said so recently. I mean, I know SHIPS was developed for that purpose, but being an avid user of it the last few years, I find it to be pretty wanting in most cases. It seems to only be good for predicting rapid intensification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4202. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


That's why this is serious.... Ernesto and TD6 does exist and GFS downgrades them or thinks that they shouldn't exist....

When they present this storm over Africa, then what does it mean?

(maybe that they should check their upgrade?)


Maybe it means...


DOOOOOM! xD

A storm forming over Africa, now that is strange, though it happened once.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4200. GHOSTY1
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because that was the most recent advisory. The next one isn't until 5 AM, which is when we will see any changes.

Haha alright, no watches or warnings...my bad. darn, now theyre making me wait even longer. Alright im going to sleep now since i just wasted my time waiting for the advisory that was never gonna come haha :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Let's clear things up for real...

Next recon leaves out at 1030UTC.


4.5 hours until Hurricane Ernesto. Calling it. Winner winner chicken dinner.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6505
Ernesto definitely look more impressive than he has ever looked tonight.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey, if you're going to insult me, at least spell correctly. :-D

*riddance

...hehe


Ok, I fixed it....now you must! Lol
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting huntsvle:


I agree...aside from wrong, they've been all over the place. I like reading your for fun forecasts lol. They always pose something on which to think.


I'll correct myself...

scratch wrong
instert inaccurate**
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Per the GFS, TD 6 shouldn't exist, neither should Ernesto. So I would keep an eye on it just in case. XD


That's why this is serious.... Ernesto and TD6 does exist and GFS downgrades them or thinks that they shouldn't exist....

When they present this storm over Africa, then what does it mean?

(maybe that they should check their upgrade?)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


lol :)


You must have took a break....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GHOSTY1:

So far when i go to NOAAs website and go to the hurricane page where it shows the active waves, storms, hurricanes, etc. and i scroll over the Tropical Storm Ernesto symbol it says its still from the 11 oclock advisory.


Because that was the most recent advisory. The next one isn't until 5 AM, which is when we will see any changes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guyz did you just see Phelps won gold in the 100 meter hurdles?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6505
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

There are no watches or warnings out.
Oh ok thanks, was really looking forward to see if they were going to raise the winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let's clear things up for real...

Next recon leaves out at 1030UTC.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
4189. JLPR2
TD 6 holding on for the moment.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Certainly possible. As I was saying in my forecast...lol jk.

Upper level environment is key once again. That outflow and light shear has allowed Ernesto to strengthen despite accelerating tradewinds and dry air ahead. Global model intensity forecast has been horrible so far.


I agree...aside from wrong, they've been all over the place. I like reading your for fun forecasts lol. They always pose something on which to think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Never fear everyone, I have returned to the blog! :P


lol :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:


Good riddens!


Hey, if you're going to insult me, at least spell correctly. :-D

*riddance

...hehe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
4185. GHOSTY1
Quoting KoritheMan:


Uh, what? They change with the advisories.

So far when i go to NOAAs website and go to the hurricane page where it shows the active waves, storms, hurricanes, etc. and i scroll over the Tropical Storm Ernesto symbol it says its still from the 11 oclock advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


here let me help you out there so people don't get confused with the mumble jumble

1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


How does posting it again clear up anything?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6505
X
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


here let me help you out there so people don't get confused with the mumble jumble

1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Oops. Didn't realize it had jumbled up so bad. Basically next flight leaves at 1030UTC.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
Quoting GTcooliebai:
What happened to the 2am advisory for Ernesto?
they come out every 6 hours now because theres no warnings or watches
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4180. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


But looks like the one GFS develops over Africa is the one behind that one More than 120 hrs...


Per the GFS, TD 6 shouldn't exist, neither should Ernesto. So I would keep an eye on it just in case. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, that seals it. Time for me to be hitting the old dusty trail...


Good riddance!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting GHOSTY1:
how long does it usually take before NOAA changes their cone of uncertainity or doom, whichever yall like better, after there advisories?


Uh, what? They change with the advisories.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting huntsvle:


I believe recon's not going out until tomorrow morning.
Schucks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
What happened to the 2am advisory for Ernesto?

There are no watches or warnings out.
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
4175. JLPR2
Ernesto is closing in.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


here let me help you out there so people don't get confused with the mumble jumble

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-

A. 04/1200, 1800Z

B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO

C. 04/1030Z

D. 14.4N 68.1W

E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-

A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z

B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO

C. 04/2200Z

D. 15.0N 71.2W

E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4173. GHOSTY1
how long does it usually take before NOAA changes their cone of uncertainity or doom, whichever yall like better, after there advisories?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is a nice one



But looks like the one GFS develops over Africa is the one behind that one More than 120 hrs...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone know when the next microwave pass is? The most recent one is a few minutes short of six hours old.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting huntsvle:


Its pretty clear that 50mph is now an understatement. I'm willing to bet we're looking at 60-65 or maybe even closer to 70mph. I wouldn't be surprised if HH mission in the morning would find some SL winds at 70mph with higher gusts. And it would be easy to assume that likewise SLP has dropped some to the 998-1000mb range.

We might see a H1 by tomorrow afternoon.
Certainly possible. As I was saying in my forecast...lol jk.

Upper level environment is key once again. That outflow and light shear has allowed Ernesto to strengthen despite accelerating tradewinds and dry air ahead. Global model intensity forecast has been horrible so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happened to the 2am advisory for Ernesto?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Never fear everyone, I have returned to the blog! :P


Well, that seals it. Time for me to be hitting the old dusty trail...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Lol that was a joke but okay
Yeah I knew it was a joke, I guess I should learn not to always be technical and just be outgoing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Never fear everyone, I have returned to the blog! :P


WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
,
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
right the TWO came out 91L is still at 20% no surprise there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Never fear everyone, I have returned to the blog! :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE TROUGH MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4161. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


I posted that earlier in color. Did you like it?


here is a nice one

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I meant according to the NHC lol

Is recon heading out anytime soon?
not until 12 ( 8 am eastern)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ON
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE TROUGH MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10250
4158. JLPR2
91L waning away.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I meant according to the NHC lol

Is recon heading out anytime soon?


I believe recon's not going out until tomorrow morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 4207 - 4157

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
72 °F
Partly Cloudy