Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tribucanes:
Wunderkid, your right though; wish you weren't. Don't see what's inhibiting Ernesto from making major in 48 and later on Cat. 4 based on upcoming conditions when he reaches the Gulf. Sounds crazy, but if Ernesto managed to shoot the gap as a major, cat.5 would not be out of the question. Ernesto reaches major in 48 and shoots the gap or goes over Western Cuba this could be Camille#2. Global models in consensus to an extent that this won't happen though. Maybe Rita's right, she's been saying all day Ernesto's going too fast for his own good and will never make the continental at this pace. Maybe the forward speed of Ernesto is what the models are all hinting at; going to outrun himself.


Thing is, it is still slowing down, and is strengthening. Doesn't a system slowing down mean a turn (in this case to the north) is about to occur? Models are having a very weak system taking the southern track which does not sound plausible, one of the main reasons, the initialization is off, so it throws the whole run out of balance.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Tom Taylor, that's better than eating crow in a post. #4301 your a great member here, that was funny. See ya tomorrow.
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4305. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hence why I removed it.


Ah dang, I should have refreshed before pressing post.

Seems now that only the OSI SAF has updated maps.
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Wunderkid, your right though; wish you weren't. Don't see what's inhibiting Ernesto from making major in 48 and later on Cat. 4 based on upcoming conditions when he reaches the Gulf. Sounds crazy, but if Ernesto managed to shoot the gap as a major, cat.5 would not be out of the question. Ernesto reaches major in 48 and shoots the gap or goes over Western Cuba this could be Camille#2. Global models in consensus to an extent that this won't happen though. Maybe Rita's right, she's been saying all day Ernesto's going too fast for his own good and will never make the continental at this pace. Maybe the forward speed of Ernesto is what the models are all hinting at; going to outrun himself.
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Quoting JLPR2:


You do realize that is from June, right?

Apparently that page was abandoned and isn't updated anymore.


oh crap just realised that but either way my statement still is true recon beats scat anyday
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12168
Quoting JLPR2:


You do realize that is from June, right?

Apparently that page was abandoned and isn't updated anymore.

Hence why I removed it.
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Well before I got to sleep, just want to say this was a stupid post
Quoting TomTaylor:
Tom's Unofficial Intensity Forecast For Fun (TUIFFF)

0-12H Slight Strengthening to a Strong TS (60-65) by 12H
12-24H Intensity Levels Off
24-48H Slight Weakening to a Moderate TS (50-60MPH) by 48hrs
48-60H Intensity Levels Off, Possible Slight Weakening, Moderate TS (45-50)
Beyond 72H Gradual Intensification Resumes



Look at the vertical wind shear across the Caribbean



Wouldn't be surprised if this became a hurricane tomorrow. Intensification is likely for the next day, may level off a little the day after, but as it passes Jamaica it should continue to intensify.

About my own forecast, it wasn't a good idea to use the global models to base my intensity forecast and I should have taken a better look at the upper level environment.
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Quoting AussieStorm:




that is why recon beats scat anyday and every day not only that but surface obs
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12168
4299. emguy
My apologies for the long wait, I saw some nice comments before I got typing, and there will probably always be some notes in my mind to add, but I wanted to follow up on my promise to post. We can always discuss other things later. These are some of my key thoughts.

Forecast for Ernesto:
1.) This is too far out to get pinpoint, but it is a good timeframe to go with regional parameters. I'm going to stick with my eastern Gulf of Mexico philosophy for Ernesto. More specifically, from the Mississippi Delta (SE Louisiana) on the western side, through Miami on the eastern side.
2.) It may sound overdone, but I am actually adding Miami/extreme SE Florida out of consideration for 91L and it’s already seen influence on Ernesto. I agree on comments and statements regarding US trough development and the typhoons in the far western Pacific. This does enhance the trough over the eastern US, within a lag time of up to 10 days. So I believe it’s safe to consider this plus 91L's influence as an extreme eastern outlier.
3.) To that end, I do disregard the GFS for it’s handling of Ernesto, it’s handling of the US heat wave, and 91L. The model is trying to have all three this time. At no point this year have we seen anything move from east to west along the northern Gulf coast, from fronts, to shortwave, to Debbie, as everything has moved west to east in an overall trough environment, so it is impossible to believe 91L will move west along the northern gulf coast. The GFS is trying to push 91L west on the north Gulf coast in an effort to backfill and reconcile the retreating heat wave with the Bermuda High. Something likely overdone in consideration of our consistent trough that will be enhanced in the east.
4.) 91L is a key player as an extension of the east coast trough and overall weakness over Florida and the Eastern Gulf. If the system develops into something, it will continue to erode the ridge further, but for now, it has already done quite a bit in clearing the Carribean and slowing Ernesto. It is in no apparent hurry to depart and will likely depart in a northward direction up the Florida East coast, leaving a wake behind that enhances the east gulf trough.
5.) Overall, I anticipate that Ernesto will continue to slow in forward speed, and may even stall briefly near Jamaica. Any NW or N motion will be slow and prolonged after that, despite the major hurricane potential. The overall weather is not progressive, so this storm will not be either, we are talking about a turn into the weakness…no diving troughs…just a hurricane trying to find a path of least resistance.
6.) Speaking of Debby, my thoughts are this...if a weak open low can be drawn north into the Gulf from the Cuba area, what happens when a Category 2 or 3 or 4 hurricane is in the neighborhood under a similar pattern?
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4298. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:




You do realize that is from June, right?

Apparently that page was abandoned and isn't updated anymore.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
If the global models are successful in their prognosis for weakening, I will be more attentive to them in the future.

No kidding! It would be amazing if they were correct after all of the crap we have given them.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting KoritheMan:
If the global models are successful in their prognosis for weakening, I will be more attentive to them in the future.



unlikely scenario
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4295. scott39
The GFS and EURO should be ashamed of themselves....when it comes to Ernesto!
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If the global models are successful in their prognosis for weakening, I will be more attentive to them in the future.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
00z GFDL.



STILL. To hit MS/AL it would have to go Due north from here but it is heading NW looks like more of a Morgan City type hit
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Quoting lurkersince2008:
.

I agree wholeheartedly.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Alright, time to get some sleep. Probably going to wake back up in time for recon. Until then, so long.
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X
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.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Looks like an anticyclone is trying to set up over Ernesto:



Looks like all the conditions are there for Ernesto to bomb over the next few days.... Not sure what the global models are seeing to weaken the storm...

well seeing a Major Hurricane in the Central-Western Caribbean now seem realistic and now a Cat 4/5 doesn't seem so far fetched anymore
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12168
4287. scott39
FIRE most of the models!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Would be nice to get a G-IV mission to sample the environment throughout the region. Not only would it help with track, but maybe it would help the models with intensity. Something is just not adding up for the majority of the global models to kill off Ernesto.
I agree. The fact that the GFS/ECMWF duo is so stagnant on keeping this weak while the GFDL/HWRF and LGEM/SHIPS groups intensify it is really odd. Given the conditions it has ahead after passing 75W, there's just no reason to believe the former camp -- especially with how well it's doing in the eastern Caribbean graveyard.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Gar, can't sleep....... NHC had remarkably little to say about Ernesto in their latest statements. I'm using gar as an expression, I do apologize to the fish. Glad I'm still up though, Ernesto will be a hurricane tomorrow based on how he's rocking it tonight. TD ain't no fishy either, may weaken, but later in the path I smell big troubles. Late August hasn't been particularly nice to the continental.


I agree. I'm concerned that TD6 will eventually be a long-range threat to the US since it's supposed to remain weak.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:


This is as good as it gets right now, unless you'd rather use quarter-day old data.


thank but no thank neither of them could help me
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12168
Gar, can't sleep....... NHC had remarkably little to say about Ernesto in their latest statements. I'm using gar as an expression, I do apologize to the fish. Glad I'm still up though, Ernesto will be a hurricane tomorrow based on how he's rocking it tonight. TD ain't no fishy either, may weaken, but later in the path I smell big troubles. Late August hasn't been particularly nice to the continental.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Okay, a track as far east of the GFDL isn't exactly what I have in mind. It can't be discounted at all though. Still don't understand the whole "bury this in Mexico" thing the GFS/Euro are seeing.

Guess that leaves me in the middle then. Sweet. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Looks like an anticyclone is trying to set up over Ernesto:



Looks like all the conditions are there for Ernesto to bomb over the next few days.... Not sure what the global models are seeing to weaken the storm...
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I made this for your viewing pleasure. Merry Hurricane Season!


r>

Back to lurking!
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Okay, a track as far east as the GFDL isn't exactly what I have in mind. It can't be discounted at all though. Still don't understand the whole "bury this in Mexico" thing the GFS/Euro are seeing.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 1001mb and winds up to 60mph. About time.

AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS,

by the time the 5 am advisory comes in it should be a 70 or even 75MPH system

that location could be correct there is a little uncertainty about where the COC is at this time
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12168
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey any microwave images coming in soon on ernesto it might give us a better idea of where the COC is now


This is as good as it gets right now, unless you'd rather use quarter-day old data.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting tropicfreak:


Now are you happy NHC?
Nah, I'll never me happy with the NHC. ;P
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB gave it a T3.5 which is 55kts/994mb. I guess they just split it down the middle with SAB.

AL, 05, 201208040545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1400N, 6640W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, GR, I, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,


Would be nice to get a G-IV mission to sample the environment throughout the region. Not only would it help with track, but maybe it would help the models with intensity. Something is just not adding up for the majority of the global models to kill off Ernesto.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting GPTGUY:


Isn't the GFDL the model that that does the best with intensity and tracks of hurricanes?


It does well...but I wouldn't say the best.
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4273. GPTGUY
Quoting tropicfreak:


Ugh.... I can see this happening. Not good... not good. Out of all the models (most that are on drugs) GFDL seems to be performing decently and realistically.


Isn't the GFDL the model that that does the best with intensity and tracks of hurricanes?
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Ernesto has strengthen there you go lol! Took long enough!!
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4271. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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TAFB gave it a T3.5 which is 55kts/994mb. I guess they just split it down the middle with SAB.

AL, 05, 201208040545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1400N, 6640W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, GR, I, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure down to 1001mb and winds up to 60mph. About time.

AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS,


Now are you happy NHC?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
4268. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Ernesto looking a little ragged. This probably has to do with DMIN and will be temporary. In a few hours this thing will fire up.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
hey any microwave images coming in soon on ernesto it might give us a better idea of where the COC is now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12168
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Pressure down to 1001mb and winds up to 60mph. About time.

AL, 05, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 664W, 50, 1001, TS,
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maybe
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hey guys I have a feeling that maybe the COC of Ernesto may have relocated to 13.2N 66.2W moving WNW but I still strongly think its at 13.9N 65.9W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12168
This image is only 15 minutes and some seconds old.



Only looks like breaks in the convection to me based on this and shortwave.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Have a great night everyone!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting msuwxman:
GFDL actually did a decent job with Katrina IIRC.
Quoting StephanInNOLA:

Wasn't the GFDL the one that predicted Gustav in '08? I could swear it did pretty well that year.
Oh well in that case we need to pay close attention to it, especially if you live along the Gulf Coast.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Do EYE spy something?

I'm really not sure. I'm hurting for a microwave pass...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
4257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Is it still true that El Nino years are conductive to inhibiting development in the Atlantic?

Is this a Nino year?


yeah
but not till after the new moon of sept 16
by then it won't matter
the damage will be done
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.