Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


look you right listen to me very carefully right I take it as a threat a big one I have been trough the worst one in my like b04 its called Ivan right that made landfall here in Grand Cayman Island as a CAT 5 and Grand Cayman is Flat with a few deppresions right and Ivan tore this Island to shit so don't you dare say that I am taking it as an amusement hobby thing DO YOU HEAR ME now you got me really pissed off

right for the other people on this blog I am sorry for getting pissed and disturbing to flow of the blog


I'm just replying to THIS quote because it's the most recent...but to whomever, I don't think anyone is disappointed that a storm doesn't play into a major hurricane. The majority of us would be incredibly affected if that were to happen. Most of us blogging live somewhere that could be obliterated by a major hurricane. Don't confuse our enthusiasm with concern. If it didn't actually matter, there wouldn't be theories and updates flying like crazy. Don't assume things you don't know. Everyone might be a bit pride hurt when they're personal evaluations don't pan out, but please don't attack someone over that. That's not the case. No one is sitting around getting off to the thought of a cat 5 making landfall. Perhaps you shouldn't parlay your guilty thoughts into someone elses actions.
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wunderkid that was his one and only goal. Don't take that chum off the back of the boat. I see why it's emotional for you though, glad you made it. Check the trolls, don't let em drag ya under the bridge with em. :)
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4355. ackee
Quoting tropicfreak:


In about 3 hours if I'm not mistaken.
I think they find 70mph winds
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I believe in about two and a half hours ackee, or close to. Six was the plan earlier at least.
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Quoting pmzqqzmp:

This is what I was talking about earlier. You can almost feel the disappointment in some wishcasters that don't see the models turning ever storm into a major hurricane. What is wrong with you guys c'mon be happy it might not. These storms which you treat as a hobby, are seen by most normal people as a threat. they are not here for your amusement.


look you right listen to me very carefully right I take it as a threat a big one I have been trough the worst one in my life its called Ivan right that made landfall here in Grand Cayman Island as a CAT 5 and Grand Cayman is Flat with a few deppresions right and Ivan tore this Island to shit so don't you dare say that I am taking it as an amusement hobby thing DO YOU HEAR ME now you got me really pissed off

right for the other people on this blog I am sorry for getting pissed and disturbing to flow of the blog
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Quoting ackee:
when will HH investigate Earnesto ?


In about 3 hours if I'm not mistaken.
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Alright, bed this time for real. Will be back in a few hours for recon.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Tribucanes:
Much more scientific 1900hurricane :)

Well, it's that time of night when even a really bad joke will have on the floor lost it. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting StephanInNOLA:

Unfortunately, I believe you may be right. It's hard to find anything that would lead me to believe this won't be a major by the time it reaches the GOMEX. Ahead of this storm, there's very little wind shear and very warm waters deep enough to support a rapid intensification event. If this thing develops a good anticyclone, it will most likely explode. The way I see it, Ernesto will gradually edge toward hurricane status, possibly hitting it by late tomorrow afternoon or early evening, with the lid coming off shortly after midnight/Sunday morning. I'm not one to blow things out of proportion, but I have a really, really bad feeling about this one. I pray I'm wrong.


I agree here as well. I'm beginning to think that this could be quite major event for the gulf states.
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4348. ackee
when will HH investigate Earnesto ?
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Quoting scott39:
Ernesto down to 1001mb and believe to be dropping as I type. Winds up to 60 to 65mph. moving 17mph. I would expect a hurricane soon.


The next advisory should be interesting. The NHC was pretty conservative on their growth potential.
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Much more scientific 1900hurricane :)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This isn't exactly a scientific post (although I could try to throw some forecast conditions to make it that way), but I feel like the sky is the limit for Ernesto. There is a great deal of untapped energy which I feel like he will channel, much to the dismay of somebody out there.

Unfortunately, I believe you may be right. It's hard to find anything that would lead me to believe this won't be a major by the time it reaches the GOMEX. Ahead of this storm, there's very little wind shear and very warm waters deep enough to support a rapid intensification event. If this thing develops a good anticyclone, it will most likely explode. The way I see it, Ernesto will gradually edge toward hurricane status, possibly hitting it by late tomorrow afternoon or early evening, with the lid coming off shortly after midnight/Sunday morning. I'm not one to blow things out of proportion, but I have a really, really bad feeling about this one. I pray I'm wrong.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Wooo colors!



I like how impressive this is looking after Dmin.
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4343. scott39
Ernesto down to 1001mb and believe to be dropping as I type. Winds up to 60 to 65mph. moving 17mph. I would expect a hurricane soon.
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Wooo colors!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Puerto Rico feeling some of Ernesto's outer bands.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Fairly intense convection is building over the center again.



As expected. I think many of us expected convection to fire post DMin. It'll be interesting to see what starts to happen when DMax comes into full play.
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#4323 everyone blogging here tonight has never had any desire for destruction. Just following a very confusing model run and trying to make sense of it. I remember watching in horror during Katrina what a bad major can do. I know I shouldn't respond to your disingenuous comment, but I think I speak for everyone here when I say we'd take a fishy over a land falling major ANYWHERE ANY DAY. Discussing all possibilities is in no way wishing for disasters on others.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Convection looks like it may be bridging together again.


as DMAX come in I expect a really big blow up

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Fairly intense convection is building over the center again.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
4336. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


Any thoughts for when it gets into the Gulf?


Some models show it staying inland, but even over water, upper-level winds seem to suggest it will be sheared by the upper low moving southwest away from it as it moves westward, and then Ernesto's outflow will take over the shearing in a few days. Not much room to grow on most of the models for 91L.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Ernesto continues to move rapidly to the west over the eastern Caribbean and will likely pass near Jamaica Sunday night. A gradual increase in intensity appears likely and Ernesto could be a hurricane by Monday. It remains too early to tell if Ernesto will be a threat to the Texas or Louisiana coastline late next week.

-Greg Bostwick KFDM6
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Quoting Levi32:


Boy did I get that one thrown at me earlier today lol.

Let me guess, did it happen to involve 91L? :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 4August6amGMT:
MinimumPressure decreased from 1003millibars to 1001millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 45knots(52mph)83km/h to 50knots(58mph)93km/h
Its vector changed from 270.2*West@16.8mph(27km/h) to 273.9*West@17.9mph(28.8km/h)

CDD-PuertoLempira :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: PVA-Providencia :: AUA-Aruba :: SLU-St.Lucia

The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TropicalStormErnesto's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TropicalStormErnesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to a coastline
3August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had passed 5.1miles(8.2kilometres)South of St.Lucia on its way to passage 17.2miles(27.7kilometres)North of Aruba.
3August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over ParqueNacionalKruta southeast of PuertoLempira
4August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage 7.6miles(12.2kilometres)South of Providencia (PVA-blob)
4August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage over MiskitoCays in ~2days11hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pnd, cdd-15.1n83.315w, puz, pva-13.323n81.391w-13.213n81.384w, aua-12.623n70.055w-12.872n70.082w, ngd, slu, 13.1n55.5w-13.3n57.4w, 13.3n57.4w-13.7n59.8w, 13.7n59.8w-13.6n61.5w, 13.6n61.5w-13.8n63.3w, 13.8n63.3w-13.8n64.8w, 13.8n64.8w-13.9n66.4w, 13.8n64.8w-14.32n82.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for the larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.
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Better than nothing I suppose.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
foward speed is not a problem well not anymore ernesto is slowing down people and I expect further slowing down

from 24MPH-23MPH-21MPH-18MPH yeah I'll call that slowing down how about you
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4330. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


You can turn the wishcasting card around for those hoping for dissipation too, though.

At least in my case, I've never been wishcasting (not that I assume you were accusing me). I just honestly don't see any negatives for Ernesto.


Boy did I get that one thrown at me earlier today lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Levi32:


It looks more like typical mid-level vorticity left over from intense convection to me. Surface winds directly north of the system are still out of due south. The pattern is one for spreading the system out, not consolidating it together, in my opinion. It shouldn't be a big problem for Florida, but good rain.


Any thoughts for when it gets into the Gulf?
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4328. Levi32
Quoting emguy:


Ummm...Levi...It's not dead. In your loop, I actually see better vorticity than ever. Look east of Lauderdale, North of Andros. Hang in there on it. It's not a write off yet.


It looks more like typical mid-level vorticity left over from intense convection to me. Surface winds directly north of the system are still out of due south. The pattern is one for spreading the system out, not consolidating it together, in my opinion. It shouldn't be a big problem for Florida, but good rain.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Levi32:
Well 91L kind of died, which was expected. Florida will still get heavy weather from this though over the coming few days.



I can actually pinpoint a circulation north of Andros Island. Interesting, despite the toll DMIN took on 91L's convection. I'll admit I kinda discounted it earlier, but I'm starting to think development is within the realm of possibility.
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Quoting pmzqqzmp:

This is what I was talking about earlier. You can almost feel the disappointment in some wishcasters that don't see the models turning ever storm into a major hurricane. What is wrong with you guys c'mon be happy it might not. These storms which you treat as a hobby, are seen by most normal people as a threat. they are not here for your amusement.


You can turn the wishcasting card around for those hoping for dissipation too, though.

At least in my case, I've never been wishcasting (not that I assume you were accusing me). I just honestly don't see any negatives for Ernesto.
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4325. emguy
Quoting Levi32:
Well 91L kind of died, which was expected. Florida will still get heavy weather from this though over the coming few days.



Ummm...Levi...It's not dead. In your loop, I actually see better vorticity than ever. Look east of Lauderdale, North of Andros. Hang in there on it. It's not a write off yet.
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Quoting emguy:


Hey there, If you're talking about mine...I can understand the comment. On a personal note, I don't understand how to make video's and etc, and wouldn't dabble there, but I do like to utilize links and a love to make weather maps that show conditions and place visuals to words...This time...I felt there was a lot to discuss tonight, and I have been a little strapped for time. Either way, I hope it helps folks out in some way. I'm going to bed, but if anyone has questions or comments about my posts...e-mails are always welcome.

Not directed towards you at all. Just throwing out an opinion without anything backing it up. Basically just my gut feeling.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well seeing a Major Hurricane in the Central-Western Caribbean now seem realistic and now a Cat 4/5 doesn't seem so far fetched anymore

This is what I was talking about earlier. You can almost feel the disappointment in some wishcasters that don't see the models turning ever storm into a major hurricane. What is wrong with you guys c'mon be happy it might not. These storms which you treat as a hobby, are seen by most normal people as a threat. they are not here for your amusement.
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4322. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
15:00 PM JST August 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Wake Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 23.4N 161.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 23.5N 161.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Wake Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
15:00 PM JST August 4 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Minami daito

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haikui (985 hPa) located at 25.3N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.9N 127.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - northesat of Naha
48 HRS: 27.5N 124.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.0N 122.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
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4321. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
sleep time for me be gone in ten more minutes be back around 7 as recon gets there
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Back for a few minutes. I turned everything off and was trying to go to sleep when I remembered to check buoy data since there was one west of Ernesto. He will probably pass about a degree to the south of this buoy but it will be interesting to watch its information output.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
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4318. emguy
Quoting 1900hurricane:
This isn't exactly a scientific post (although I could try to throw some forecast conditions to make it that way), but I feel like the sky is the limit for Ernesto. There is a great deal of untapped energy which I feel like he will channel, much to the dismay of somebody out there.


Hey there, If you're talking about mine...I can understand the comment. On a personal note, I don't understand how to make video's and etc, and wouldn't dabble there, but I do like to utilize links and a love to make weather maps that show conditions and place visuals to words...This time...I felt there was a lot to discuss tonight, and I have been a little strapped for time. Either way, I hope it helps folks out in some way. I'm going to bed, but if anyone has questions or comments about my posts...e-mails are always welcome.
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Well if the models ain't right, we're in for some unpleasantness. NHC just waiting till morning to make their change in intensity and track. They must be upset. Their the best, but this is worse than Debbie by far in so many ways. Their thinking has to be quite like many of us here. What in the bloody hell are these models looking at. Their prognosis must be quite different from what the models are showing them. Somebody's butt is on the line tomorrow with their morning update. Good to have the pros when things are this questionable.
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4315. Levi32
Well 91L kind of died, which was expected. Florida will still get heavy weather from this though over the coming few days.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Convection looks like it may be bridging together again.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
4313. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W
05L/TS/E/CX
R.I.FLAG OFF
MARK
13.81N/65.03W


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4312. scott39
Ernestos 12 hour average movement is slowing down...17mph per tropical Atlantic....expect this to continue going down. Lets just face the facts that the GFS and EURO are doing a very poor job with Ernesto. The NHC saw it yesterday.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The forward speed is something I hadn't considered before. It still seems unrealistic because of the trough though.

Forward speed may not be much of a problem anymore with the way Ernesto seems to be slowing down. Look how far east of the forecast point he is!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
This isn't exactly a scientific post (although I could try to throw some forecast conditions to make it that way), but I feel like the sky is the limit for Ernesto. There is a great deal of untapped energy which I feel like he will channel, much to the dismay of somebody out there.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
I'm taking a break too!! Be back when recon goes in. Good night!
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Wunderkid, your right though; wish you weren't. Don't see what's inhibiting Ernesto from making major in 48 and later on Cat. 4 based on upcoming conditions when he reaches the Gulf. Sounds crazy, but if Ernesto managed to shoot the gap as a major, cat.5 would not be out of the question. Ernesto reaches major in 48 and shoots the gap or goes over Western Cuba this could be Camille#2. Global models in consensus to an extent that this won't happen though. Maybe Rita's right, she's been saying all day Ernesto's going too fast for his own good and will never make the continental at this pace. Maybe the forward speed of Ernesto is what the models are all hinting at; going to outrun himself.


The forward speed is something I hadn't considered before. It still seems unrealistic because of the trough though.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Wunderkid, your right though; wish you weren't. Don't see what's inhibiting Ernesto from making major in 48 and later on Cat. 4 based on upcoming conditions when he reaches the Gulf. Sounds crazy, but if Ernesto managed to shoot the gap as a major, cat.5 would not be out of the question. Ernesto reaches major in 48 and shoots the gap or goes over Western Cuba this could be Camille#2. Global models in consensus to an extent that this won't happen though. Maybe Rita's right, she's been saying all day Ernesto's going too fast for his own good and will never make the continental at this pace. Maybe the forward speed of Ernesto is what the models are all hinting at; going to outrun himself.


Thing is, it is still slowing down, and is strengthening. Doesn't a system slowing down mean a turn (in this case to the north) is about to occur? Models are having a very weak system taking the southern track which does not sound plausible, one of the main reasons, the initialization is off, so it throws the whole run out of balance.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.