Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting huntsvle:


I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane placed on him as quickly as after the recon.

I calling an upgrade to Hurricane status after the first pass by the Hurricane Hunters.
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Is it just me, or does the IR image of that wave behind TD 6 look like the Flying Spaghetti Monster? Oy, might be bedtime for me...
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Quoting tropicfreak:


You mean something like this?



And I shudder to see something so massive and dangerous in the Gulf. Not good news for the gulf coast.


I agree...and something of that magnitude is not what i'm trying to convey, but something on a larger scale perhaps.
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Just as an FYI... 5 am advisory should be out in 30-40 minutes.
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4403. scott39
Quoting huntsvle:


I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane placed on him as quickly as after the recon.
Maybe not that soon, but I believe today sometime.
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Quoting AussieStorm:












Check out the wave following TD6.


grrr. lol. i JUST said that.
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Quoting huntsvle:


You know, if ernesto's tendency is to grow large...we may have another Ike type storm. One where the entire GOM is covered by rain bands and clouds in satellite imagery. Just a thought.


You mean something like this?



And I shudder to see something so massive and dangerous in the Gulf. Not good news for the gulf coast.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Stepping away from Ernesto for a moment and shining the spotlight on TD 6. I think it deserves some attention :).



Ok, well the spotlight on both Ernesto and TD 6. But in any case TD 6 is still firing up some nice convection and still has an impressive structure.

What do y'all think? Florence at 5 am?












Check out the wave following TD6.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
MICROWAVE!!! (I decided to check one more time... :P)



Ok, I'm out for real now... :P


See, I told you they would upload it right after you said you were going to sleep! :P (Sorry, had to say it lol)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No way. Ike was exceptionally large. So large that I don't quite think you realize the scope of what you are suggesting. :P


I didn't mean like Ike exactly. And I'm well aware of the scope of Ike...amazingly aware lol. But it could pan out to be a large type system is all I'm expressing.
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Quoting huntsvle:


You know, if ernesto's tendency is to grow large...we may have another Ike type storm. One where the entire GOM is covered by rain bands and clouds in satellite imagery. Just a thought.


No way. Ike was exceptionally large. So large that I don't quite think you realize the scope of what you are suggesting. :P
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Quoting scott39:
Ernesto is starting to wrap very cold top intense convection around COC. He will be a hurricane soon.


I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane placed on him as quickly as after the recon.
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Quoting reedzone:
Forecast models are initializing a weak storm... Ernesto is not a weak storm.. Expect a northern shift in models once Hurricane Hunters find potentially our second Hurricane of the season in the Caribbean later today.

so very true
Quoting tropicfreak:
Stepping away from Ernesto for a moment and shining the spotlight on TD 6. I think it deserves some attention :).



Ok, well the spotlight on both Ernesto and TD 6. But in any case TD 6 is still firing up some nice convection and still an impressive structure.

What do y'all think? Florence at 5 am?


well the attention is not on TD6 because of what it is forecasted to do plus if it is still a TD by the time it reaches 50/50W its still will be a week maybe plus a few day befor it is any threat to any landmasses and with ernesto being a TS/hurricane and being in the caribbean it a threat to the caribbean abd the US so right now and quite frankly for the rest of the weekend and week the next week going to mid-week all the attention should and wiil be on ernesto
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10916
Quoting tropicfreak:
Stepping away from Ernesto for a moment and shining the spotlight on TD 6. I think it deserves some attention :).



Ok, well the spotlight on both Ernesto and TD 6. But in any case TD 6 is still firing up some nice convection and still has an impressive structure.

What do y'all think? Florence at 5 am?


06z ATCF file says no. Pressure went down a millibar, though.
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4393. scott39
Ernesto is starting to wrap very cold top intense convection around COC. He will be a hurricane soon.
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Quoting huntsvle:


How consistently inaccurate of them...

I really don't understand it. How is that happening? Are they using older data sets or something? Hell, we've had data for at least the past 6 hours that this was definitely not a weak storm. I wish I understand how the flow of data to the modelling systems worked.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Ernesto has some far reaching impacts. Some rain bands are being felt in Puerto Rico, and even some in the Leeward Islands! The center of the storm passed over the islands nearly 24 hours ago, and impacts are still being felt!

Incredible!



You know, if ernesto's tendency is to grow large...we may have another Ike type storm. One where the entire GOM is covered by rain bands and clouds in satellite imagery. Just a thought.
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Quoting StephanInNOLA:


Wow! I haven't been paying much attention at all to TD 6 tonight. That is some impressive imagery. Funny how you could consider either of these storms both ugly and beautiful at the same time.


How dare you shun it! ;)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
MICROWAVE!!! (I decided to check one more time... :P)



bahahahahaha...thanks for your persistance. I would say we missed you but you were only gone for 2.5seconds.
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Ernesto has some far reaching impacts. Some rain bands are being felt in Puerto Rico, and even some in the Leeward Islands! The center of the storm passed over the islands nearly 24 hours ago, and impacts are still being felt!

Incredible!

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MICROWAVE!!! (I decided to check one more time... :P)



Ok, I'm out for real now... :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Quoting tropicfreak:
Stepping away from Ernesto for a moment and shining the spotlight on TD 6. I think it deserves some attention :).



Ok, well the spotlight on both Ernesto and TD 6. But in any case TD 6 is still firing up some nice convection and still has an impressive structure.

What do y'all think? Florence at 5 am?


I don't know if you'll see a name at 5am. I think the forecasters are too busy trying to figure out the models and focus on giving some type of accuracy and forecast to Ernesto who is a more immenent threat.

I would not be surprised to see Florence with the day though at some point.

And if things pan out well, we may see a TD 7, Florence, and Ernesto all at the same time before anything makes a landfall.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Stepping away from Ernesto for a moment and shining the spotlight on TD 6. I think it deserves some attention :).



Ok, well the spotlight on both Ernesto and TD 6. But in any case TD 6 is still firing up some nice convection and still an impressive structure.

What do y'all think? Florence at 5 am?


Wow! I haven't been paying much attention at all to TD 6 tonight. That is some impressive imagery. Funny how you could consider either of these storms both ugly and beautiful at the same time.
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Quoting reedzone:
Forecast models are initializing a weak storm... Ernesto is not a weak storm.. Expect a northern shift in models once Hurricane Hunters find potentially our second Hurricane of the season in the Caribbean later today.


How consistently inaccurate of them...
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Quoting reedzone:
Forecast models are initializing a weak storm... Ernesto is not a weak storm.. Expect a northern shift in models once Hurricane Hunters find potentially our second Hurricane of the season in the Caribbean later today.


Agreed. I said this earlier. If it initialized a weaker storm than it really is, then it throws the whole run off.
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by the way here is a reminder on hurricane hunters upcoming flight into ernesto

1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10916
4381. scott39
91L is going to reinforce the break in the ridge. I think that a TX/LA to the FL. panhandle is the most likely Gulf Coast landfall.
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Stepping away from Ernesto for a moment and shining the spotlight on TD 6. I think it deserves some attention :).



Ok, well the spotlight on both Ernesto and TD 6. But in any case TD 6 is still firing up some nice convection and still has an impressive structure.

What do y'all think? Florence at 5 am?
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Forecast models are initializing a weak storm... Ernesto is not a weak storm.. Expect a northern shift in models once Hurricane Hunters find potentially our second Hurricane of the season in the Caribbean later today.
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Quoting AussieStorm:










Still blowing up some very cold cloud tops. DMAX is upon us.
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Quoting huntsvle:


I noticed that. Last nights blogging was pretty good debating conversation. Today was statement of facts and everytime I walked away from my keyboard I was 40 posts behind. -_-

Seriously, I think my Ctrl and R keys were starting to jam up on me as I tried to follow it all!
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Quoting StephanInNOLA:

It's true. Just a few nights ago I think, it was much worse. Glad to see it's been pretty civil with just good old fashioned tropical discussion talk. That said, I think I'd feel a little better if we were discussing a fish storm and not one that could possibly landing on my front door in the not-too-distant future haha.


I completely concur!
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Quoting Tribucanes:
See ya'll on the flip side. Have a good night all.


Night!
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Luckily the blog is buzzing by so quickly now that the trolls can have no fun. Luckily there are so few here. They get there comments covered up and read very seldom. When it's as fast as it was today, the trolls can't reap the attention needed to keep them interested. An ignored troll is a troll soon to leave. So few trolls here, less than a handful. Really awesome blog.

It's true. Just a few nights ago I think, it was much worse. Glad to see it's been pretty civil with just good old fashioned tropical discussion talk. That said, I think I'd feel a little better if we were discussing a fish storm and not one that could possibly landing on my front door in the not-too-distant future haha.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Agreed. I'm starting to like late night blogging even when the Atlantic gets very active. Comments are being posted at a steady rate, not the warp speed you see during the day. Some good ol weather discussion. Love it!


I noticed that. Last nights blogging was pretty good debating conversation. Today was statement of facts and everytime I walked away from my keyboard I was 40 posts behind. -_-
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See ya'll on the flip side. Have a good night all.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Luckily the blog is buzzing by so quickly now that the trolls can have no fun. Luckily there are so few here. They get there comments covered up and read very seldom. When it's as fast as it was today, the trolls can't reap the attention needed to keep them interested. An ignored troll is a troll soon to leave. So few trolls here, less than a handful. Really awesome blog.


Agreed. I'm starting to like late night blogging even when the Atlantic gets very active. Comments are being posted at a steady rate, not the warp speed you see during the day. Some good ol weather discussion. Love it!
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4369. scott39
Quoting huntsvle:


Indeed...they do have pretty awesome skill.

But the models have been so crazy this go around that I'm suprised they have even kept running them lol.
Lol...Im sure they are pulling thier hair out. Thank God we have those guys and gals.
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Quoting scott39:
That they were. Although they have not been on the side of the GFS and EURO. This is where thier God given forecasting skills come into play.

I still say that most of the models are way too south to how I think the track is going to go
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10916
Quoting scott39:
That they were. Although they have not been on the side of the GFS and EURO. This is where thier God given forecasting skills come into play.


Indeed...they do have pretty awesome skill.

But the models have been so crazy this go around that I'm suprised they have even kept running them lol.
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Luckily the blog is buzzing by so quickly now that the trolls can have no fun. Luckily there are so few here. They get there comments covered up and read very seldom. When it's as fast as it was today, the trolls can't reap the attention needed to keep them interested. An ignored troll is a troll soon to leave. So few trolls here, less than a handful. Really awesome blog.
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4365. scott39
Quoting huntsvle:


The next advisory should be interesting. The NHC was pretty conservative on their growth potential.
That they were. Although they have not been on the side of the GFS and EURO. This is where thier God given forecasting skills come into play.
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Quoting StephanInNOLA:

You just *know* the second you go to sleep, they're going to release the new microwave data. They're probably uploading it right now lol.


bahahaha, that's the story of MY life.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Ok, I think I'm out as well. If there isn't any new microwave data for Ernesto by the time I get up, I think I'll... probably go back to sleep. :P

You just *know* the second you go to sleep, they're going to release the new microwave data. They're probably uploading it right now lol.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
wunderkid that was his one and only goal. Don't take that chum off the back of the boat. I see why it's emotional for you though, glad you made it. Check the trolls, don't let em drag ya under the bridge with em. :)

yeah thanks huh Ivan brings back meroies you know one of my closest friends almost got his head sliced off from flying zinc luckly he slipped and fell flat on his front step
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10916
Ok, I think I'm out as well. If there isn't any new microwave data for Ernesto by the time I get up, I think I'll... probably go back to sleep. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


look you right listen to me very carefully right I take it as a threat a big one I have been trough the worst one in my life its called Ivan right that made landfall here in Grand Cayman Island as a CAT 5 and Grand Cayman is Flat with a few deppresions right and Ivan tore this Island to shit so don't you dare say that I am taking it as an amusement hobby thing DO YOU HEAR ME now you got me really pissed off

right for the other people on this blog I am sorry for getting pissed and disturbing to flow of the blog


no worries wunderkid we got your back.
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4359. scott39
Unfortunately every now and then, a TC comes along that doesnt pay attention to models.
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Quoting ackee:
I think they find 70mph winds


Agreed... right in the nick of time for DMAX. Expect a hurricane perhaps in the afternoon/evening.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


look you right listen to me very carefully right I take it as a threat a big one I have been trough the worst one in my like b04 its called Ivan right that made landfall here in Grand Cayman Island as a CAT 5 and Grand Cayman is Flat with a few deppresions right and Ivan tore this Island to shit so don't you dare say that I am taking it as an amusement hobby thing DO YOU HEAR ME now you got me really pissed off

right for the other people on this blog I am sorry for getting pissed and disturbing to flow of the blog


I'm just replying to THIS quote because it's the most recent...but to whomever, I don't think anyone is disappointed that a storm doesn't play into a major hurricane. The majority of us would be incredibly affected if that were to happen. Most of us blogging live somewhere that could be obliterated by a major hurricane. Don't confuse our enthusiasm with concern. If it didn't actually matter, there wouldn't be theories and updates flying like crazy. Don't assume things you don't know. Everyone might be a bit pride hurt when they're personal evaluations don't pan out, but please don't attack someone over that. That's not the case. No one is sitting around getting off to the thought of a cat 5 making landfall. Perhaps you shouldn't parlay your guilty thoughts into someone elses actions.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.