Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Alright I'm off. Will check back in a few hours, only after I get some sleep ;)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
From Ernesto discussion:

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.


as well as a track past day three...

I think the models are giving them hell and I give them kudos for busting their butts to keep providing timely information.

hopefully we will be much more clear on a lot of things after the recon.
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Quoting huntsvle:


Well, I will say this, it's much easier to work a third shift as there are few interruptions. Most of my work is steady working and less phone calls, emails etc. It's nice. LOL. It almost makes me more productive.

I've just eaten a whole large BBQ chicken pizza and a cheesy garlic bread. I'm fuelled up for a few hours to watch the HH crew do their work.
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From Ernesto discussion:

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


IF this track plays out well, then I can understand why they would show a weakening at day 5. HOWEVER, that would also place it in slightly warmer water temperatures once it reenters the gulf. Secondly, if I remember correctly...that's similar to the path Ike took?!?? :0
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Quoting huntsvle:
Per 5am update...

Forecast to become a hurricane by sunday.

Umm....I'm thinking that's a little conservative.

A little bit, maybe. At least they're not sticking with the Monday scenario. I'm still thinking it will be late this afternoon at the earliest for hurricane status, but man, look out when it does.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Welcome to the night shift. It's easy for me cause it's actually day time here.


Well, I will say this, it's much easier to work a third shift as there are few interruptions. Most of my work is steady working and less phone calls, emails etc. It's nice. LOL. It almost makes me more productive.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

at the rate it going I would give it mor like 60%


true I don't think it goin Mex that temps and TCHPs in the GOM and W Carib more so in the W Carib could support a Cat 6 or 7 if it could ever exist

look at this its even higher than 2005
now

2005

even higher than 07


I prefer this map.
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4449. scott39
Quoting huntsvle:
Per 5am update...

Forecast to become a hurricane by sunday.

Umm....I'm thinking that's a little conservative.
I would think more like in the next 12 hours.
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 040847
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS
FROM 0135 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A
MUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN
36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN
EARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN
WEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.1N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.5N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 17.5N 83.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 21.5N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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Quoting huntsvle:
Per 5am update...

Forecast to become a hurricane by sunday.

Umm....I'm thinking that's a little conservative.


Yeah I'm thinking more like 5 or 11 PM EDT today
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I don't know why the NHC is so adamant on taking Ernesto over the Yucatan.

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Quoting huntsvle:


I'm a third shifter. I won't be in bed until around 9am.

Welcome to the night shift. It's easy for me cause it's actually day time here.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AT
0600 UTC...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT
VALUE.

THE FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE MIXED. THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CYCLONE AND MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES COULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPLIT...WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS SHOWING SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...HOWEVER...PREDICT LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWING THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LEAN TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN PREDICTING A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/14. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.9N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.5N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 16.0N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.2N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.7N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Per 5am update...

Forecast to become a hurricane by sunday.

Umm....I'm thinking that's a little conservative.
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Quoting scott39:
I give Ernesto at least a 50% chance of RI.

at the rate it going I would give it mor like 60%

Quoting david276:
I'm not a master met or something by any means.. Still in college...

But one has to look at current data and see this thing hitting the GOM. I highly doubt at this point the thing slams into southern Mexico. Ernesto is about to bathe in "hurricane rocket fuel".
If by luck this thing slams into southern Mexico (which I do do not see as physically possible at this point) that is a bullet certainly dodged.

true I don't think it goin Mex that temps and TCHPs in the GOM and W Carib more so in the W Carib could support a Cat 6 or 7 if it could ever exist

look at this its even higher than 2005
now

2005

even higher than 07
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12727
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 29.1W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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60 it is, for now, can't wait to see what the Hurricane Hunters find
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......and for round two???
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SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 67.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER...INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 4
Location: 14.1°N 67.2°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

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This is for TD 6

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 4
Location: 14.2°N 29.1°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Ernesto advisory has yet to be released.
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Bet everyone is pressing F5 for the 5 am advisory.
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4434. scott39
Quoting huntsvle:


I cannot believe that they are being so persistent. You would think they weren't dynamic or global models if you only looked at this. I'm interested to see how much they tweak themselves at the 12z runs. If they aren't on track with the system by then I quit lol.
After that, I will think terrorist hackers have planted a super bug and its not the models fault! LOL
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I forgot about that yes true huh we work well togeather my friend


lets collaborate haha
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Quoting scott39:
I dont see how the GFS and EURO cant catch up after yesterday and early this morning.


I cannot believe that they are being so persistent. You would think they weren't dynamic or global models if you only looked at this. I'm interested to see how much they tweak themselves at the 12z runs. If they aren't on track with the system by then I quit lol.
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4431. emguy
Okay...I tried to sleep. Some quick notes of things to watch for today, then I'm seriously ready for sleep and I'm out till later....

1.) Continued slowing in forward speed of Ernesto. By all looks, the slowdown may have continued further. Ounce again, he has maybe only made it halfway to his 12 hour forecast point (from 00Z Initial to 12 Z Forecast Piont), yet there is only 3.5-4 hours left to make up the gap. Ernesto is way, way, way behind schedule.

2.) Monitor the thunderstorms ahead of Ernesto, they are creating a V-shaped pointed arrow head pointed toward Hispanola and the area between there and Jamaica. The distortion of the forward band is happenning because it's the current path of least resistance.

3.) Keep all wary eyes on 91L. Even without development, this is a mid-level disturbance, that steering level will/could/can affect Ernesto steering and High Pressure Ridge strength. Also, with vigorous mid-level well established north of Andros Island, one must monitor for a translation to the surface and potential tropical development.

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4430. scott39
I dont see how the GFS and EURO cant catch up after yesterday and early this morning.
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Quoting david276:
I'm not a master met or something by any means.. Still in college...

But one has to look at current data and see this thing hitting the GOM. I highly doubt at this point the thing slams into southern Mexico. Ernesto is about to bathe in "hurricane rocket fuel".
If by luck this thing slams into southern Mexico (which I do do not see as physically possible at this point) that is a bullet certainly dodged.


I completely concur. What I've noticed so far:

1. The models are initializing the storm weaker than it is very consistently.
2. This weak initialization is giving the global models a tendency to allow the storm to be picked up by steering.
3. This is also allowing the models to run the storm at a more southerly track than what it actually is.
4. The entire placement of the storm is relatively too far south in my opinion. Otherwise the effects of the invest would not be so clear.
5. If the storm were that weak...it is likely it would have already started to dissipate, which it hasn't.

So, I agree, and I do not foresee a dodged bullet as much as I would like to.
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Quoting scott39:
Ernesto is going to tapping into some TCHP,that hasnt been touched in years!


Not since Ida in 09! Well... that was late season. I guess the last mid season storm we had that passed over that area was Dennis in 05
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Quoting huntsvle:


That intensity forecast would be a bit off as well. The larger the storm grows, the more energy it will suck up. I think that if it is a moderate cat 1, then we're looking for sure at a major hurricane, and pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see an RI event IF that situation were to pan out. But GOOD observation.

I forgot about that yes true huh we work well togeather my friend
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12727
4425. scott39
Ernesto is going to tapping into some TCHP,that hasnt been touched in years!
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I'm not a master met or something by any means.. Still in college...

But one has to look at current data and see this thing hitting the GOM. I highly doubt at this point the thing slams into southern Mexico. Ernesto is about to bathe in "hurricane rocket fuel".
If by luck this thing slams into southern Mexico (which I do do not see as physically possible at this point) that is a bullet certainly dodged.
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so does the GFDL at the 6z run.
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4422. scott39
I give Ernesto at least a 50% chance of RI.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

thanks a load well shows the center at 14N 67W but not intierly sold on that yet as more data comes in them maybe


would not be surprised in is already


note also if it is a hurricane it will be way earler that forecasted so when it does they will have to increase the intensity to compensate so probably by the time it reaches Jamaica it could be a moderate - strong Cat 1

ok lets take this
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

ok now lets put the first one at 75MPH and add up the rest of the speed from that

12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 80KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 85KT 80 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 90KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 95KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 100KT 95 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 110KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 100KT 95 MPH

Now of coarse the coordinates will be different but I am talking about intensitys not track right now


also this forecast still emphasizes a bit of weakending at day 5 which i just honestly can't imagine happening. That would place it somewhere mid GOM and I can't image it weakening once it's there just because of SST and SST anamolies.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Ernesto my man, you are not failing to impress me.



I say if not a 75MPH Cat 1 then a 70MPH TS

what wait oh my gosh white spot very high and cold cloud top
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12727
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

thanks a load well shows the center at 14N 67W but not intierly sold on that yet as more data comes in them maybe


would not be surprised in is already


note also if it is a hurricane it will be way earler that forecasted so when it does they will have to increase the intensity to compensate so probably by the time it reaches Jamaica it could be a moderate - strong Cat 1

ok lets take this
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

ok now lets put the first one at 75MPH and add up the rest of the speed from that

12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 80KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 85KT 80 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 90KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 95KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 100KT 95 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 110KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 100KT 95 MPH

Now of coarse the coordinates will be different but I am talking about intensitys not track right now


That intensity forecast would be a bit off as well. The larger the storm grows, the more energy it will suck up. I think that if it is a moderate cat 1, then we're looking for sure at a major hurricane, and pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see an RI event IF that situation were to pan out. But GOOD observation.
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4418. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Methinks you're forgetting about Gustav...
Thanks for the reminder. The ol memory aint what it used to be :)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
MICROWAVE!!! (I decided to check one more time... :P)



Ok, I'm out for real now... :P

thanks a load well shows the center at 14N 67W but not intierly sold on that yet as more data comes in them maybe

Quoting scott39:
Ernesto is starting to wrap very cold top intense convection around COC. He will be a hurricane soon.

would not be surprised in is already


note also if it is a hurricane it will be way earler that forecasted so when it does they will have to increase the intensity to compensate so probably by the time it reaches Jamaica it could be a moderate - strong Cat 1

ok lets take this
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

ok now lets put the first one at 75MPH and add up the rest of the speed from that

12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 80KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 85KT 80 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 90KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 95KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 100KT 95 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 110KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 100KT 95 MPH

Now of coarse the coordinates will be different but I am talking about intensitys not track right now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12727
Ernesto my man, you are not failing to impress me.


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Quoting ClevelandBob:
Ernesto is finally impressing us, I say 60 at 5AM EDT


I think ernesto is already 60-65mph. I wouldn't be surprised to see 65-70 at the 5am
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Quoting scott39:
I said it earlier and i will say it again.... I have NEVER in all of my years of tracking TCs, witnessed a DEVELOPING TC.....in the EASTERN Caribbean.


Methinks you're forgetting about Gustav...
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4413. scott39
I said it earlier and i will say it again.... I have NEVER in all of my years of tracking TCs, witnessed a DEVELOPING TC.....in the EASTERN Caribbean.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Go to bed.


I'm a third shifter. I won't be in bed until around 9am.
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Quoting ClevelandBob:
Ernesto is finally impressing us, I say 60 at 5AM EDT


It is going to be 60 mph at 5 am after the ATCF updated an hour ago. Pressure is down to 1001 mb I think.
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Ernesto is finally impressing us, I say 60 at 5AM EDT
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Quoting huntsvle:


grrr. lol. i JUST said that.

Go to bed.
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Quoting huntsvle:


I agree...and something of that magnitude is not what i'm trying to convey, but something on a larger scale perhaps.


Just in case you are wondering... that was Alex in 2010. One of the if not the largest hurricane I've ever seen. The largest tropical system as a whole that I've seen was either Debby or Lee.
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Quoting huntsvle:


I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane placed on him as quickly as after the recon.

I calling an upgrade to Hurricane status after the first pass by the Hurricane Hunters.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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