Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting huntsvle:

I'm lead to believe that the dry air will have very little effect on ernesto. I really think it'll do nothing but slow his strengthening IF it manages to do that. As characteristic of larger storms, he seems to be doing quite will at just creating his own little atmosphere.


I'm waiting on the 12z runs to see if the computers got their acts together after last nights complete chaos. I think we'll see a difference. In my opinion, the center has completely closed off and there is a developing eye. If the computers can pick up on this and analyze it for what it is (and NOT initialize the storm as a weak storm as they did last night) they'll change up their track and intensity forecasts.

For those of you who missed it, scroll back some posts and look through the craziness that was the 6z model run data.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

dry air don't mention that cause ernesto got "dry repeliant" on no probles with that


Lookin so...bet you Caymanislanders will be doing some hurricane prep today and tomorrow.
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Who understands this???

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031409
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.


4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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4504. LargoFl
20 TO 60 NM-
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG,
CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOODING: STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY WINDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER,
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
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Quoting Chicklit:


yay!
There's a lot of dry air ahead of Ernesto but unfortunately it looks like the storm is creating its own environment. Link Caribbean WV Loop


dry air don't mention that cause ernesto got "dry repeliant" on no probles with that
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Good afternoon :)

Post 4482, wow that might really be an eye there

Coordinate: 14 N, 67 W
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Quoting frostynugs:
3 storms... yeah, 'bout time to come out of my annual hibernation.

G'day folks. Me thinks Ernesto is going to pull some surprises today.



Here's the shear map. And below you can see it is expected to drop and it's currently not that high.
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I think Ernesto forgot his passport. High/way border patrol is not going to allow US entry.
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4499. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
507 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-042115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
507 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WITH MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM ALONG OTHER BOUNDARIES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

CARLISLE
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Good morning, everyone. Well, we had a couple of torrential downpours last night, compliments of Ernesto. Seas are up and to the point where it was advised to be in harbor by dusk. Still pretty cloudy and windy this morning. Looking to the east and keeping our fingers crossed on this next one!

Lindy
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Quoting Chicklit:


yay!
There's a lot of dry air ahead of Ernesto but unfortunately it looks like the storm is creating its own environment. Link Caribbean WV Loop


I'm lead to believe that the dry air will have very little effect on ernesto. I really think it'll do nothing but slow his strengthening IF it manages to do that. As characteristic of larger storms, he seems to be doing quite will at just creating his own little atmosphere.
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4496. LargoFl
Quoting StephanInNOLA:

Good morning, Largo. That sure seems to be the case. Only question is who will be left with the short straw.
..yes we still have some days ahead to see where he goes, things can change fast and there is still a good chance he goes into mexico etc
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3 storms... yeah, 'bout time to come out of my annual hibernation.

G'day folks. Me thinks Ernesto is going to pull some surprises today.
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It seems 91L will be a localized blob providing lots of rain for the Florida peninsula today.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hunters should be taking off in about an hour


yay!
There's a lot of dry air ahead of Ernesto but unfortunately it looks like the storm is creating its own environment. Link Caribbean WV Loop

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Quoting LargoFl:
..................good morning folks...a very interesting time for us all along the gulf coast probably near the end of the coming week huh

Good morning, Largo. That sure seems to be the case. Only question is who will be left with the short straw.
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hunters should be taking off in about an hour
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4490. LargoFl
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4489. LargoFl
.........................7-day forecast for the Tampa Bay area
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4487. LargoFl
..................good morning folks...a very interesting time for us all along the gulf coast probably near the end of the coming week huh
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4486. Matt74
Hey guys. I'm just an observer but I follow this site for the info and knowledge that you guys provide at times likes these. So thank you all. I live in Texas but am in Florida on vacation right now and we are watching this very closely. Just wanted to say thanks for all the input and info you guys give to someone like me that knows nothing. ( but I am learning things from y'all )
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Link WV Loop

If you click on SST's , lat/long, Fcast Points you can see where they're putting the center.

5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 4
Location: 14.1°N 67.2°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

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4484. LargoFl
Quoting uptxcoast:
Well Dang, Time to really start paying attention and get a couple of things done this weekend. A 1/2 tank of gas in the car in the minimum allowed.
.wow..folks there better hurry and gas up and get prepared quickly before the run on gas and stores start
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Well Dang, Time to really start paying attention and get a couple of things done this weekend. A 1/2 tank of gas in the car in the minimum allowed.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Evenin'


yes, good evening, too!
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Quoting Chicklit:
Link 5 a.m. NHC Discussion of Ernesto

...THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A MUCH SLOWER RATE.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS...


too conservative.
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Link 5 a.m. NHC Discussion of Ernesto

...THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A MUCH SLOWER RATE.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS...
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi, morning guys


Glad to hear the HH's will be out early today.

Evenin'
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi, morning guys


Glad to hear the HH's will be out early today.


mornin
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Hi, morning guys


Glad to hear the HH's will be out early today.
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Quoting nola70119:



UKMET modek is one of the best.....shows a westward bias. But confidence is LOW.


it is quite good, but it has also deviated from what its previous run in the last run. But I wouldn't place too much confidence in any of the models from this run because many of them just went a little hinky.
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Quoting PcolaSurf182:
What is going on with Invest 91L? Is it dead or might still track across FL and enter the Gulf? Sorry in advance if this is a stupid question...


I think 91L is too close to land to form but who knows what could happen once it crosses over Florida.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is there an eye developing at 66/13



You may be right though. This image shows what could be a developing eye about those coordinates.
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Quoting huntsvle:


agreed. I don't know why they deviated from the more northerly track. I think the models are underestimating the storm as a whole. I also think that the NHC is trying to use a blend of models and skill but it's almost too 50/50 and causing them to be conservative.



UKMET modek is one of the best.....shows a westward bias. But confidence is LOW.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is there an eye developing at 66/13


only one way to find out and that ain't going to happen for about an hour and 30 min
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is there an eye developing at 66/13



Perhaps, I can't exactly tell..you look like you have a later frame than I do. I generally judge based on a loop and then post the last frame.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm still here. It's only 7:23pm here. I'll be here for another 6 or 7hrs.


oh, okay. you just haven't said anything in a while.
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Quoting huntsvle:


looking good to me....almost seeing a possible eye here.

Is there an eye developing at 66/13

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Quoting huntsvle:



I think we're the only two left atm. lol

I'm still here. It's only 7:23pm here. I'll be here for another 6 or 7hrs.
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looking good to me....almost seeing a possible eye here.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes I know very well about those incidents and issues



I think we're the only two left atm. lol
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hunters takeoff at 630am
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Quoting huntsvle:


Unfortunately, there has been a string of incident with this system. the last recon mission was cancelled for technical issues as well. They MUST get a pinpoint on the center, and by the time they get there we can call it an eye. But you're certainly right in that the models cannot find it.

yes I know very well about those incidents and issues
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah I think because we can't pin point the center and how strong it is thats why the models are underestimating the strength and forseeable tracks so what need to happen is that the NHC need to have more hunter mission and get the noaa planes in as well because time is of the evansance countries don't have money for extra damages due to bad preparation due to bad forecasting


Unfortunately, there has been a string of incident with this system. the last recon mission was cancelled for technical issues as well. They MUST get a pinpoint on the center, and by the time they get there we can call it an eye. But you're certainly right in that the models cannot find it.
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Quoting huntsvle:


agreed. I don't know why they deviated from the more northerly track. I think the models are underestimating the storm as a whole. I also think that the NHC is trying to use a blend of models and skill but it's almost too 50/50 and causing them to be conservative.

yeah I think because we can't pin point the center and how strong it is thats why the models are underestimating the strength and forseeable tracks so what need to happen is that the NHC need to have more hunter mission and get the noaa planes in as well because time is of the evansance countries don't have money for extra damages due to bad preparation due to bad forecasting
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think NHC is being a little way too conservative with intensity and I think that the forecast track should have shifted N not S but anyway all of you keep this in mind intensity and forecast track will be absolut crap untill hurricane hunters fly in


agreed. I don't know why they deviated from the more northerly track. I think the models are underestimating the storm as a whole. I also think that the NHC is trying to use a blend of models and skill but it's almost too 50/50 and causing them to be conservative.
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What is going on with Invest 91L? Is it dead or might still track across FL and enter the Gulf? Sorry in advance if this is a stupid question...
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I think NHC is being a little way too conservative with intensity and I think that the forecast track should have shifted N not S but anyway all of you keep this in mind intensity and forecast track will be absolut crap untill hurricane hunters fly in
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Alright I'm off. Will check back in a few hours, only after I get some sleep ;)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.