Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hunkerdown:

They shouldn't expected to be...each ensemble member's track is based on a different set of possible environmental conditions based on possible weather/climate patterns over the time period.


agreed...i don't expect each member to agree with each other member...but at some point there has to be some agreement within each members self or it has no credability. And over the course of the last two days I've seen member spreads of over 1200 miles in difference and few of them keep the same direction. Now long term, each member should keep the environmental data set the same.

If you're going to run multi ensemble members from the same source, and you want the options laid out, they should be moderately consistent. Each run has initialized differently, and each run has produced results that arent similar. Even though the GFS itself has remained consistent...the ensemble hasnt
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Patrap and CCkid00, hope the GFDL doesn't pan out for you guys. BTW I'm from Hammond LA, now in east central FL
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


at that time storms location could stiil be tracked by radar and crew have a rollover system each member get rolled to the next guy cause you need fresh pair of eye on the equipment so yesterdays flight was to be at 18Z but they decided to move it to 22Z and they dropped the 06Z flight that flights info would have been put in to the 5 am advisory


we Caymanians will have to do it today cause stors close on sunday (its a "cayman" Island thing)
Good morning. FFF will be open tomorrow. I received word from the Deputy Postmaster General to begin securing all mail etc. this morning for lock down of all post offices until we receive the all clear.
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4554. CCkid00
Quoting sailfish01:

Only link I have for GFDL is the FSU model page. Does this help? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

yes, thanks!
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Quoting yonzabam:


Don't forget the 'lack of vertical instability' throughout the region. It's a hurricane inhibitor.
A nuclear wind isn't limited by this factor, and that's what a major hurricane is, dynamically.



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Quoting CCkid00:

can you put that link up?

Only link I have for GFDL is the FSU model page. Does this help? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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4551. CCkid00
Quoting Patrap:


Cool, I live Uptown, NOLA.

Middendorf's my Fav. : )

love middendorfs. it's about 25 min. from me. great place to fish right near it, too....by the bridge.
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Good morning. I have a Tropical Depression Six blog where we can talk about that system.

Link
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Quoting trunkmonkey:



So So true, Seen this a thousand times over the years!

They shouldn't be expected to be...each ensemble member's track is based on a different set of possible environmental conditions based on possible weather/climate patterns over the time period.
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4548. bappit
Quoting trunkmonkey:



So So true, Seen this a thousand times over the years!

I hope that is sarcasm.
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4547. CCkid00
Quoting RTSplayer:
Well...

GFDL is nightmare.

145mph just south of the mouth...

can you put that link up?
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4546. Patrap
Quoting CCkid00:

i live just to the northwest of the little dot (lake maurpaus) by lake pontchatrain.


Cool, I live Uptown, NOLA.

Middendorf's my Fav. : )
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4545. Patrap
The Curiosity landing at Mars is at 1:31 a.m., EDT on Monday, Aug. 6.
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4544. CCkid00
Quoting Patrap:
Gustav's Track




i live just to the northwest of the little dot (lake maurpaus) by lake pontchatrain.
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Quoting huntsvle:


and as an addendum, it's ensemble members don't even agree with themselves



So So true, Seen this a thousand times over the years!
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I will be surprised if Ernesto isn't a major hurricane by the time the new Mars Rover lands on the planet's surface, Monday at 2:32 A.M. Eastern.

What we're seeing is relatively rare in the "grave yard," and every storm in my memory that managed to strengthen in the grave yard, has gone on to become a very potent player.
I suspect that this is because it signals very favorable conditions upstream.


Don't forget the 'lack of vertical instability' throughout the region. It's a hurricane inhibitor.
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4541. Patrap
Curiosity, the car-size, one-ton rover is bound for arrival on Mars at 1:31 a.m., EDT on Monday, Aug. 6.

www.nasa.gov
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hunters to take off in either 10 mins or 40 min from now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12151
4539. Patrap

06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Early Model Wind Forecasts


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4538. leo305
Well TD 6 sure looks like way more than a TD..
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Quoting huntsvle:


too conservative.
I will be surprised if Ernesto isn't a major hurricane by the time the new Mars Rover lands on the planet's surface, Monday at 2:32 A.M. Eastern.

What we're seeing is relatively rare in the "grave yard," and every storm in my memory that managed to strengthen in the grave yard, has gone on to become a very potent player.

I suspect that this is because it signals very favorable conditions upstream.

I favor a more westward track, but not south of the BOC. However, if Ernesto manages to gain Cat. 4 status by the time it reaches the central Caribbean, I favor a middle Texas landfall.
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4536. Patrap





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4535. GPTGUY
Quoting RTSplayer:
Well...

GFDL is nightmare.

145mph just south of the mouth...


Yikes!!
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4534. Patrap
One looks for "consensus", not any one model can do what the ensemble can..
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Quoting Chicklit:


The GFS has Ernesto weakening in the next few days and then strengthening in the west Caribbean at this point, do you agree? Link GFS Animation


No. I think it's moving into an area of dryer air. I think that might hinder its strengthening, but I don't expect to see it weaken. I think the GFS still thinks were working with a struggling storm that may or may not make it and may end up entraining some dry air. At this point, though, I think Ernesto is just too strong for that.
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Well...

GFDL is nightmare.

145mph just south of the mouth...
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4531. Patrap
Gustav's Track



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4530. GPTGUY
Yeah about the GFS I've been reading this blog since before Katrina and one thing I've learned about the computer models is that if one does very well on one storm that does not by any stretch mean it's going to perform as good with another storm.
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Quoting huntsvle:


and as an addendum, it's ensemble members don't even agree with themselves


The GFS has Ernesto weakening in the next few days and then strengthening in the west Caribbean at this point, do you agree? Link GFS Animation
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4528. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting CCkid00:

thanks! i don't say anything often on here, just watch.....from Denham Springs, La....just about 5 miles east of Baton Rouge. Katrina wasn't that bad here...no power for just 3 days. Gustav got us moreso...no power for 7 days and some roof damage. we are 2.5 to 3 hours inland. had a lot of trees down and on houses, but not bad considering what it did to our coast.


Thank Cuba that Gustav wasn't another Katrina. It's eye wall collapsed as it went over the westernmost tip of Cuba.
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Quoting huntsvle:


Maybe it was reliable for debby, but NOOONNNEEE of the global models have done a good job with ernesto. They aren't initializing properly, they aren't finding a ciruclation at the right location, and they aren't progessing. They have been consistently inaccurate. I would toss the GFS completely.


and as an addendum, it's ensemble members don't even agree with themselves
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Quoting Chicklit:
The GFS was the most reliable model for Debbie and that one says Ernesto will landfall maybe a little south of Belize at this point. Once the hurricane hunters are able to locate the center and do their wind analyses, then the models should become more reliable.

The important thing is to act 'as if' and that way you're in better shape down the road.


Maybe it was reliable for debby, but NOOONNNEEE of the global models have done a good job with ernesto. They aren't initializing properly, they aren't finding a ciruclation at the right location, and they aren't progessing. They have been consistently inaccurate. I would toss the GFS completely.
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The GFS was the most reliable model for Debbie and that one says Ernesto will landfall maybe a little south of Belize at this point. Once the hurricane hunters are able to locate the center and do their wind analyses, then the models should become more reliable.

The important thing is to act 'as if' and that way you're in better shape down the road.
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Quoting LargoFl:
............................hmmm..where it goes..nobody knows

If i where you, id throw this out those are all the gfs and its ensenbles, and the gfs has been sucking with this storm same with the EURO
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4522. LargoFl
............................hmmm..where it goes..nobody knows
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
the 06Z Ships now has a 70 MPH tropical storm by 18Z( 2 PM eastern) today, it also has a 112 MPH Category 2 hurricane upon landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula


that might be a bit progressive. I would expect to see a cat one sooner than they expect. Once it reaches the gulf (which I think is a better assumption) it would intensify to a cat 2/3 before making landfall. The models have ALL initialized the storm weaker than it was at the 6z runs. So they are thinking it would be steered by flow instead of finding an upper level weakness to draw it more northward. I'm very curious to see what changes in the 12z runs.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Who understands this???

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031409
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.


4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


at that time storms location could stiil be tracked by radar and crew have a rollover system each member get rolled to the next guy cause you need fresh pair of eye on the equipment so yesterdays flight was to be at 18Z but they decided to move it to 22Z and they dropped the 06Z flight that flights info would have been put in to the 5 am advisory

Quoting Chicklit:


Lookin so...bet you Caymanislanders will be doing some hurricane prep today.

we Caymanians will have to do it today cause stors close on sunday (its a "cayman" Island thing)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12151
the 06Z Ships now has a 70 MPH tropical storm by 18Z( 2 PM eastern) today, it also has a 112 MPH Category 2 hurricane upon landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula
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4518. LargoFl
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Quoting LargoFl:
..yes ive heard someone say that but..its from the NHC 2am discussion..which is the official version


Indeed it is, but they even indicate that the model consensus is poor and confidence is very low long term.
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4516. CCkid00
Quoting huntsvle:


pretty much. Ernesto is a strong storm will falling pressures and (underestimated) increasing windspeeds. I think that it's creating it's own micro-environment and a little dry air isn't going to do much to it. That may be part of the reason the NHC didn't grow it to a hurricane as early as I think it should have been. Other than that, I doubt it'll play an issue.

thanks! i don't say anything often on here, just watch.....from Denham Springs, La....just about 5 miles east of Baton Rouge. Katrina wasn't that bad here...no power for just 3 days. Gustav got us moreso...no power for 7 days and some roof damage. we are 2.5 to 3 hours inland. had a lot of trees down and on houses, but not bad considering what it did to our coast.
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4515. LargoFl
Quoting huntsvle:


This information is based off of what a few of us believe to be inaccurate model data. The track is too far south.
..yes ive heard someone say that but..its from the NHC 2am discussion..which is the official version
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Quoting CCkid00:

has Ernesto gotten past the point of where they said it could come apart some?


I think so. They weren't sure it would develop and thought it might turn into a wave. Not so, obviously. Evidently, the system slowed down and wasn't torn up by the winds ahead of it, at least that's my take.

Now it's in a better environment for strengthening.
The main question of course is whether it will stay south and travel mainly west or move more to the north and end up somewhere around the Yucatan Strait and of course enter the GOM.

There's also a question of what will happen when it gets to the West Caribbean because as Aussie and others have posted, the water temperatures are very warm in that area, there is little land interference, and that is a recipe for a stronger tropical system.
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4513. LargoFl
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Quoting LargoFl:
A SURFACE TROUGH E OF
FLORIDA OVER THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL TRACK W ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MON AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TUE AND WED. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS THE
NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE THROUGH WED.


This information is based off of what a few of us believe to be inaccurate model data. The track is too far south.
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Quoting CCkid00:

has Ernesto gotten past the point of where they said it could come apart some?


pretty much. Ernesto is a strong storm will falling pressures and (underestimated) increasing windspeeds. I think that it's creating it's own micro-environment and a little dry air isn't going to do much to it. That may be part of the reason the NHC didn't grow it to a hurricane as early as I think it should have been. Other than that, I doubt it'll play an issue.
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4510. LargoFl
A SURFACE TROUGH E OF
FLORIDA OVER THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL TRACK W ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MON AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TUE AND WED. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS THE
NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE THROUGH WED.
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4509. CCkid00
Quoting Chicklit:


yay!
There's a lot of dry air ahead of Ernesto but unfortunately it looks like the storm is creating its own environment. Link Caribbean WV Loop


has Ernesto gotten past the point of where they said it could come apart some?
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Who understands this???

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031409
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.


4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



essentially that means they cancelled last nights flight and todays looks good to go. Take off in a little less than hour.
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Quoting huntsvle:

I'm lead to believe that the dry air will have very little effect on ernesto. I really think it'll do nothing but slow his strengthening IF it manages to do that. As characteristic of larger storms, he seems to be doing quite will at just creating his own little atmosphere.


I'm waiting on the 12z runs to see if the computers got their acts together after last nights complete chaos. I think we'll see a difference. In my opinion, the center has completely closed off and there is a developing eye. If the computers can pick up on this and analyze it for what it is (and NOT initialize the storm as a weak storm as they did last night) they'll change up their track and intensity forecasts.

For those of you who missed it, scroll back some posts and look through the craziness that was the 6z model run data.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.