Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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4607. JRRP
14n 67.2w.. the eye ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting weatherh98:


I'm about to cry dude I was diliberatley not looking at the date so I wouldnt face my greatest fear.... A weekend hit .....

We go back next Wednesday blah


are you done swimming yet?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
p.s. Here's the NHC Aircraft Recon Link

I can't make heads or tails for any of it so will have to wait for translations.
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the think the models are too far south with ernesto considering he is getting stronger
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting CCkid00:

wellllll.......if that pans out, at least it would be on the weekend. our kids start school next thursday.


I'm about to cry dude I was diliberatley not looking at the date so I wouldnt face my greatest fear.... A weekend hit .....

We go back next Wednesday blah
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4601. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:14Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08

11:15:00Z 15.367N 67.700W 842.9 mb

(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,567 meters
(~ 5,141 feet) 1009.1 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 105° at 37 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 42.5 mph) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 9.3°C
(~ 48.7°F) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 33.1 knots (~ 38.1 mph)
89.5%

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 11:05:30Z (first observation), the observation was 201 miles (323 km) to the SSW (208°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 11:15:00Z (last observation), the observation was 237 miles (381 km) to the SSW (207°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:


Sideways s
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4599. CCkid00
Quoting weatherh98:


Ensemble spread 192 hours

wellllll.......if that pans out, at least it would be on the weekend. our kids start school next thursday.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Ocean Heat Content along the track:



No mi gusta no mi gusta no mi gusta!
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00Z GFS ENSEMBLE
Link
Quoting CCkid00:

which model is this and what is the time frame and the strength? thanks in advance! :-)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
4595. GetReal
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Quoting CCkid00:

which model is this and what is the time frame and the strength? thanks in advance! :-)


Ensemble spread 192 hours
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The E really git it togther overnight. Me thinks he is stong enough to go north of Mex but SW of Cuba and run the chanel. That would not be good for gas prices.
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4592. CCkid00
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

which model is this and what is the time frame and the strength? thanks in advance! :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 11:05:00Z
Coordinates: 15.8667N 67.45W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,582 meters (~ 5,190 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.4 mb (~ 29.87 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 111° at 37 knots (From the ESE at ~ 42.5 mph)
Air Temp: 17.0°C (~ 62.6°F)
Dew Pt: 7.2°C (~ 45.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Good morning, Ernesto appears to be carrying wide windfield and is growing all the time.
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Thx!
Quoting weatherh98:


There is not very warm water there
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Ocean Heat Content along the track:

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Center of Ernesto passing a tad south of this bouy.

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Why is this??


There is not very warm water there
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good morning..i see the UKMET is south now too


I have been messing with ur Georgia. Friends:)
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lol
Quoting weatherh98:


STOP PUTTING MODELS OVER MY HOUSE WITH THIS ONE
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Why is this??
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


STOP PUTTING MODELS OVER MY HOUSE WITH THIS ONE
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Look at the monster poised to exit Africa.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
4581. GetReal



Ernesto has developed a nice CDO canopy, and is probably nearing hurricane status.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Well...

GFDL is nightmare.

145mph just south of the mouth...




Let's take the positives out of this... No school


-__-

I'd rather that not happen
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4579. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:04Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 07

11:05:00Z 15.867N 67.450W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,582 meters
(~ 5,190 feet) 1011.4 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 111° at 37 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 42.5 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 7.2°C
(~ 45.0°F) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 35.1 knots (~ 40.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 94.7%

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 10:55:30Z (first observation), the observation was 161 miles (258 km) to the SSW (200°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

At 11:05:00Z (last observation), the observation was 199 miles (320 km) to the SSW (208°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, it inhibited cyclogenesis last year. And a lot of storms that did form failed to strengthen as expected. It's a significant factor.
Here's 2005 for the Western Caribbean, so you do have a point. However, I would argue that hurricanes are designed by nature to transfer heat to higher latitudes, and I would expect even more so if you believe global warming is real.

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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
4575. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 10:54Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06

10:55:00Z 16.250N 66.867W 537.2 mb

(~ 15.86 inHg) 5,326 meters
(~ 17,474 feet) - 284 meters
(~ 932 feet) From 80° at 32 knots
(From the E at ~ 36.8 mph) -1.9°C
(~ 28.6°F) -5.2°C
(~ 22.6°F) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 33.9 knots (~ 39.0 mph)
106.1%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 10:45:30Z (first observation), the observation was 121 miles (195 km) to the S (186°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 10:55:00Z (last observation), the observation was 159 miles (255 km) to the SSW (200°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
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Good morning..i see the UKMET is south now too
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting huntsvle:


Can you provide a link to where you're getting your information!?!?

Go to Severe Weather tab on top of this page.
Click on Tropical & Hurricane drop-down.
Look down on the right side of the page for the HH info.
There are several tabs.
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4572. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting huntsvle:


Can you provide a link to where you're getting your information!?!?
Link
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Patrap:


We have many days to see that change hopefully.

I really hope it does change too. I'm in Kenner, so I'm part of the giant soup bowl as well.
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Good rain for S FL
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Right now the best factor in terms of forecast is that GFS and Euro currently agree pretty closely with one another.

But SHIPS would suggest a high 2/low 3 landfall in Mexico or Belize along those tracks.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Sat Aug 04 2012
1038 GMT
Latitude 17.0 N
Longitude 65.8 W
Moderate turbulence in clear air infrequent
Currently flying in clouds
Flight altitude 18307 feet (5580 meters)
Flight level winds 80 degrees at 34 knots (39 mph)
Temperature -6 C Dewpoint -6 C
Remarks: AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 01


Can you provide a link to where you're getting your information!?!?
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seem that we have the C-130 in the air repeat we have C-130 in the air
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
4565. Patrap
Quoting sailfish01:
Patrap and CCkid00, hope the GFDL doesn't pan out for you guys. BTW I'm from Hammond LA, now in east central FL


We have many days to see that change hopefully.
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4564. Patrap
About 8am Central time for the 12Z runs, or thereabout
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4563. CCkid00
Quoting RTSplayer:


Look.

This is Track:




This is intensity:




Multiple knots by 1.15 to get mph.


This is the OLD GFDL from 6 hours earlier:

GFDL six hours ago



gonna be interesting....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/2200Z
D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. FFF will be open tomorrow. I received word from the Deputy Postmaster General to begin securing all mail etc. this morning for lock down of all post offices until we receive the all clear.

oh ok didn't know that FFF will be open ok goog and I know already bout the mail
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
A nuclear explosion isn't limited by this factor, and that's what a major hurricane is, dynamically.





Well, it inhibited cyclogenesis last year. And a lot of storms that did form failed to strengthen as expected. It's a significant factor.
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4559. CCkid00
how long until the new tracks come out?
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Quoting CCkid00:

can you put that link up?


Look.

This is Track:




This is intensity:





Multiple knots by 1.15 to get mph.


This is the OLD GFDL from 6 hours earlier:

GFDL six hours ago


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Quoting hunkerdown:

They shouldn't expected to be...each ensemble member's track is based on a different set of possible environmental conditions based on possible weather/climate patterns over the time period.


agreed...i don't expect each member to agree with each other member...but at some point there has to be some agreement within each members self or it has no credability. And over the course of the last two days I've seen member spreads of over 1200 miles in difference and few of them keep the same direction. Now long term, each member should keep the environmental data set the same.

If you're going to run multi ensemble members from the same source, and you want the options laid out, they should be moderately consistent. Each run has initialized differently, and each run has produced results that arent similar. Even though the GFS itself has remained consistent...the ensemble hasnt
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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