Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Keeping a close eye on Florence - watching her every move
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4656. gator23
Quoting RTSplayer:



The aircraft is already in the storm.

Pay attention, several people have already posted position and data a few times.

He is talking about the NOAA plane that samples the atmo around the storm not the Hurricane Hunter plane. You need to pay attention
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Quoting huntsvle:


I'M BACK!!! what'd i miss wunder?


iWunder.... what did you miss
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We now have 6 name storms in the Atlantic we are tie with the Epacific and shear is going down with our aoi near Florida.
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4652. gator23
Quoting JRRP:
ahora resulta que esta mas al norte... antes decian que estaba mas al sur... que los modelos de pronostico lo muestran muy al norte... que esto... que lo otro.... ahora resulta lo contrario...
los modelos lo muestra muy al sur que debe estar mas al norte...
yo te digo a ti que aqui se ven cosas....


Bueno, los steering layers estan en acuerdo con el prognostico del NHC

mira.
Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
possible coc fix at 14.3N 67.8W


I'M BACK!!! what'd i miss wunder?
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Quoting belizeit:
TS Ernesto may be weaker then we all thought HH found a low of 1004 mb thats a lot higher than forcast and winds in the n of only 40mph

They are not near the centre of Ernesto yet. They have issued no centre fix.
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4649. Patrap
Quoting Seflhurricane:
The nhc needs to send the special noaa aircraft to sample the currents and atmosphere to help the models out these models are too far south for a system that is getting stronger and has yet to reach the western carribean


They will do some G-4 High Flights after Ernesto Becomes a Hurricane, as the 3 Day Steering confidence is pretty good now,
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up to 43mph so far on HH heading towards center it seems
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we get intermediate advisories?

yes

Quoting belizeit:
TS Ernesto may be weaker then we all thought HH found a low of 1004 mb thats a lot higher than forcast and winds in the n of only 40mph

give it time they just got in plus that 01mb pressure was a guess
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
Quoting Seflhurricane:
The nhc needs to send the special noaa aircraft to sample the currents and atmosphere to help the models out these models are too far south for a system that is getting stronger and has yet to reach the western carribean



The aircraft is already in the storm.

Pay attention, several people have already posted position and data a few times.
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4645. gator23
Quoting Seflhurricane:
The nhc needs to send the special noaa aircraft to sample the currents and atmosphere to help the models out these models are too far south for a system that is getting stronger and has yet to reach the western carribean

The steering current at most layers support their track even if it is stronger. See link.

Link
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microwave lighting up now...not sure exactly where the COC was because the highest reflectivity is over that spot...
we shall see
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Yes
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we get intermediate advisories?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we get intermediate advisories?



yes
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tropical storm watch is up now!!


so we get intermediate advisories?
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TS Ernesto may be weaker then we all thought HH found a low of 1004 mb thats a lot higher than forcast and winds in the n of only 40mph
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possible coc fix at 14.3N 67.8W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so why are you blogging?


On my way to the pool... I can't miss all the fun
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Tropical storm watch is up now!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
Lol. I guess he tried to be optimistic with the former tracks of storms that came here. :)


Ernesto: uncertain track
Posted: Aug 03, 2012 8:38 PM CDT Updated: Aug 04, 2012 5:32 AM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn

Latest satellite imagery shows Ernesto may be intensifying. A recent burst of convection and strengthening bands of thunderstorms leads me the storm is growing stronger.

Currently, Ernest is about 340 miles south-southeast of San Jaun, Puerto Rico near Latitude 13.9N...Longitude 64.1W. The storm is moving west at 21 mph with maximum-sustained winds of 50 mph.

The storm is expected to continue moving generally west through the weekend over the Caribbean. Once Ernesto nears Jamaica and the Northwestern Caribbean on Monday, it will be moving over very warm waters and high heat potential. During this time, the storm is expected to become a hurricane. It is possible that rapid intensification may occur and it is not out of the realm of possibility that the storm could become a major storm though the National Hurricane Center keeps it at a Category One Hurricane. By Wednesday, Ernesto will make a landfall near Cancun and move over the Yucatan.

It is then expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, there is too much uncertainty to pin-point exactly where this storm will go at this point. If we look back at past storm tracks, Bonnie 1986, Rita 2005, Humberto 2007, and Ike and Edouard in 2008, you can see that this storm is much further south of any of these storms that struck Southeast Texas. Maybe a bit of comfort.

Regardless, it is advisable to keep abreast of Ernesto's progress.
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Quoting Chicklit:


Morning, Watcher. Good deal. Thanks.
Your welcome. I tried the other but had the same problem trying to figure it out lol.
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 041132
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

all blakes fault
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
you know florence is gonna make me have to up my numbersss. maybe 13 stormsss


-__-
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The nhc needs to send the special noaa aircraft to sample the currents and atmosphere to help the models out these models are too far south for a system that is getting stronger and has yet to reach the western carribean
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2998
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link


Good morning. Use this one. Very easy to understand. Data is decoded.


Morning, Watcher. Good deal. Thanks.
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Quoting weatherh98:
nope I have the 200 Im and 50 free today a relay and then tomorrow an open water swim before going back


so why are you blogging?
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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012

AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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WTNT65 KNHC 041134
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012

AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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4626. JRRP
ahora resulta que esta mas al norte... antes decian que estaba mas al sur... que los modelos de pronostico lo muestran muy al norte... que esto... que lo otro.... ahora resulta lo contrario...
los modelos lo muestra muy al sur que debe estar mas al norte...
yo te digo a ti que aqui se ven cosas....
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you know florence is gonna make me have to up my numbersss. maybe 13 stormsss
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4624. WxLogic
Good Morning
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


are you done swimming yet?
nope I have the 200 Im and 50 free today a relay and then tomorrow an open water swim before going back
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Tropical Storm FLORENCE!!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
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4620. Thrawst
TD-6 is now Tropical storm Florence!
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morning all ernesto looking good this morning he will be a hurricane today NHC had put it to be a hurricane when he reaches 77w 16L it appears this will happen sooner, i tend to folllow the GFDL this time of the year as the others dont seem to grap the full dynamics of the carribean, unfortunately it doesnent look good for Cayman. by the way CCKID00 her is the link for modelsLink
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FLORENCE!!!!

KNHC 041132
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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4617. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:24Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4

11:25:00Z 14.833N 67.933W 842.9 mb

(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,554 meters
(~ 5,098 feet) 1006.4 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 94° at 28 knots
(From the E at ~ 32.2 mph) 20.0°C
(~ 68.0°F) 9.8°C
(~ 49.6°F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 31.9 knots (~ 36.6 mph)
113.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 11:15:30Z (first observation), the observation was 238 miles (384 km) to the SSW (207°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

At 11:25:00Z (last observation), the observation was 277 miles (446 km) to the SSW (207°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
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4616. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting Chicklit:
p.s. Here's the NHC Aircraft Recon Link

I can't make heads or tails for any of it so will have to wait for translations.
Link


Good morning. Use this one. Very easy to understand. Data is decoded.
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Ernesto looks to be a hurricane already.

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For the record, the GFDL sucks:


and ive heard of many problems with it
I did like the 3D satellite representation from it that was on WU tropical page for some storms
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4612. GetReal


WOW!!!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

thank you for agreeing with me
here is why. he is getting stronger. he could possibly be a cat2 in the W.carribean and the stronger the system the further north it shall go. im thinking a northern yucatan landfall and then NW towards texas
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Quoting floridaboy14:
the think the models are too far south with ernesto considering he is getting stronger

thank you for agreeing with me
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
4607. JRRP
14n 67.2w.. the eye ??
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.