Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting biloxibob:
i dont understand why the nhc uses an average of models,to propose a predicted path.


That's not exactly what's happening.

The cone of uncertainty is designed so that at any given time there is a 66% chance that the storm will be inside the cone.

The line which is usually in the center of the cone is just where the greatest probability is.

The cone does not show you "every" solution or statistical possibility, only the middle 66% of where the EYE will be.

Then you have to figure WIND can be scores or hundreds of miles farther outside the cone than the eye itself.

That's why the wind probability map is so much wider area:



Further, the Official forecast does not always agree exactly with the TVCN anyway, or at least it used to not be so.

It would be pretty dumb if NHC just took the average of models and applied no human intuition, experience, or common sense...
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Ernesto is growing so much it's no joke.
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4705. guygee
Quoting huntsvle(4688):
dis.a.gree. TX/LA is a very likely candidate for this storm. With the continue retrograding of the ridge it is likely that ernesto WOULD respond to that weakness.
This far out in the forecast I'll give you LA, say the MoM or east, that is about the westernmost extent that I can see. But even though the high is going to retrograde NW somewhat it will also strengthen, so I am thinking TX is the least likely destination. I am looking for a big track shift in the out days...we will see in 2-3 days now.
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Quoting Patrap:
Mojo is on the way up fer sho'

Rain here..least we wont go to Hades in Temp this am.

: )




same here to. about 1/2 inch between 5:30 / 6:30 this morning. going to get some genny gasoline shortly.
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4703. HarryMc
Quoting Patrap:
Im trying anew Browser this am.

Is this Run Viewable or is the Lil Box there?




Picture came through ok. Good Morning.
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Quoting Patrap:
Im trying anew Browser this am.

Is this Run Viewable or is the Lil Box there?




It's viewable Pat. :)
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:57Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 11:54Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 13.7N 68.5W
Location: 343 miles (552 km) to the SSE (164°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 18°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 10°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,490 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
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4699. Patrap
Im trying anew Browser this am.

Is this Run Viewable or is the Lil Box there?



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Quoting Thing342:
Hello, just joined and have have been lurking for a few days. I could see Ernesto being a hurricane by day's end.

Hi, I don't think you're the only one!
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Ernesto is not "a mere TS."
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4695. Patrap
Mojo is on the way up fer sho'

Rain here..least we wont go to Hades in Temp this am.

: )

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Hello, just joined and have have been lurking for a few days. I could see Ernesto being a hurricane by day's end.
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4693. gator23
Quoting guygee:
Poor NHC, they are in a bind. Models continue to be bifurcated, so they have to split the difference and forecast a track towards TX, really the most unlikely destination given the persistent continental high. It is either going more south or more north, but by splitting the difference the NHC minimizes error when they do have shift the track.

For my part I am looking for Ernesto to become a major and to head north into the GOM...if that pans out it will be the northeastern gulf coast or the FL peninsula and then perhaps up the US Atl. coast that takes the hit. Not Texas.

steering currents disagree with u
Link
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morning wu. pat ... mojo risin ?
ernesto seems to be percolating well this am
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Quoting guygee:
Poor NHC, they are in a bind. Models continue to be bifurcated, so they have to split the difference and forecast a track towards TX, really the most unlikely destination given the persistent continental high. It is either going more south or more north, but by splitting the difference the NHC minimizes error when they do have to shift the track.

For my part I am looking for Ernesto to become a major and to head north into the GOM...if that pans out it will be the northeastern gulf coast or the FL peninsula and then perhaps up the US Atl. coast that takes the hit. Not Texas.
i dont understand why the nhc uses an average of models,to propose a predicted path.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



IMO he may not be a hurricane yet but I really don't think he is far off.


It's got that "dangerous" look.. Ernesto may become a Hurricane today rather then Monday.
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4689. Patrap
# 4686

None of the ensembles show that solution.




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Quoting guygee:
Poor NHC, they are in a bind. Models continue to be bifurcated, so they have to split the difference and forecast a track towards TX, really the most unlikely destination given the persistent continental high. It is either going more south or more north, but by splitting the difference the NHC minimizes error when they do have shift the track.

For my part I am looking for Ernesto to become a major and to head north into the GOM...if that pans out it will be the northeastern gulf coast or the FL peninsula and then perhaps up the US Atl. coast that takes the hit. Not Texas.


dis.a.gree. TX/LA is a very likely candidate for this storm. With the continue retrograding of the ridge it is likely that ernesto WOULD respond to that weakness.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
91L likey have been drop has nothing have been update on it for more then 12 hrs



swo i would call this ex 91L


No official "RIP" yet?
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4686. guygee
Poor NHC, they are in a bind. Models continue to be bifurcated, so they have to split the difference and forecast a track towards TX, really the most unlikely destination given the persistent continental high. It is either going more south or more north, but by splitting the difference the NHC minimizes error when they do have to shift the track.

For my part I am looking for Ernesto to become a major and to head north into the GOM...if that pans out it will be the northeastern Gulf coast or the FL peninsula and then perhaps up the US Atl. coast that takes the hit. Not Texas.
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Quoting RTSplayer:



The aircraft is already in the storm.

Pay attention, several people have already posted position and data a few times.
I dont mean the HH i meant the G-iv aircraft to sample the forcast path to help the models i getting all the current info from the HH live on my computer now!!!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



IMO he may not be a hurricane yet but I really don't think he is far off.

we have to wait til hunters have flown on NE side
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
4683. Patrap
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Ernesto has that "dangerous" look this morning.. Still a very impressive storm and may become a Hurricane as early as today.



Folks from Mexico all the way to Alabama really need to watch this storm, should be a Major Hurricane in a few days as it enters a very warmer then usual Western Caribbean and GOM. The TCHP is mind blowing near the Cayman Islands.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
91L


I wasn't expecting much from 91L, it only has a limited time over water today. Rain for the weekend around South Florida.
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You can see by the dropsounde info that Ernesto is not properly stacked the wind changed 180 degrees the first couple of 100 ft that it felt
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91L likey have been drop has nothing have been update on it for more then 12 hrs



swo i would call this ex 91L
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Quoting gator23:

He is talking about the NOAA plane that samples the atmo around the storm not the Hurricane Hunter plane. You need to pay attention


The don't normally do that for a mere mid-tier TS.
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Quoting huntsvle:


I'M BACK!!! what'd i miss wunder?

TD6 is now TS Jamaica under a TS watch hunter flying now into ernesto
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
Quoting islander101010:
nailed.the.last.ernesto...all.the.others.stunk.it .up..gfdl.nailed.that....into.hispanola


ive seen it blow the forecat on so many storms...not gonna give it much credit for winning one, it has a bad performance record, as shown by that chart
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91L
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4673. Patrap


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:44Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 11


11:45:00Z 13.983N 68.150W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,560 meters
(~ 5,118 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 293 at 5 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 5.8 mph) 17.0C
(~ 62.6F) 9.2C
(~ 48.6F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 18.3 knots (~ 21.1 mph)
366.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 11:35:30Z (first observation), the observation was 307 miles (494 km) to the SSW (203) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

At 11:45:00Z (last observation), the observation was 332 miles (534 km) to the SSE (160) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
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IMO he may not be a hurricane yet but I really don't think he is far off.
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Quoting belizeit:
They flew over the center already so i,m just giving numbers . I hope the drop a dropsonde


me too.
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4670. WxLogic
So far Ernesto is looking good...

I would expect it to continue on a W heading for a while... with a WNW to NW turn around Haiti. Given that 500MB Heights are running in the the 588DM to 590DM range across RD/Haiti/Cuba.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5039
Quoting Tazmanian:



give them time you guys they likey this got there


i am, they have few more passes unless they decide to go home again.

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°22'N 67°53'W (14.3667N 67.8833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 305 miles (491 km) to the SSW (203°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,475m (4,839ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the N/NNE (11°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ON
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED NEAR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER
TODAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

They are not near the centre of Ernesto yet. They have issued no centre fix.
They flew over the center already so i,m just giving numbers . I hope the drop a dropsonde
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
For the record, the GFDL sucks:


and ive heard of many problems with it
I did like the 3D satellite representation from it that was on WU tropical page for some storms
nailed.the.last.ernesto...all.the.others.stunk.it .up..gfdl.nailed.that....into.hispanola
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
dont know if they are at the correct center, but after the wind shifted they are turning now, but extrp surf pressure is not impressive...1005-1006mb??



give them time you guys they likey this got there
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Only 1004MB, with -45MPH recorded in this pass from recon.
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Quoting RTSplayer:



The aircraft is already in the storm.

Pay attention, several people have already posted position and data a few times.

no no no you got it wrong the one that is out there is Air force hes talking about the one is the NOAA aircraft
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
dont know if they are at the correct center, but after the wind shifted they are turning now, but extrp surf pressure is not impressive...1005-1006mb??
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:34:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°22'N 67°53'W (14.3667N 67.8833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 305 miles (491 km) to the SSW (203°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,475m (4,839ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the N/NNE (11°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the north quadrant at 11:13:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (322°) from the flight level center
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Its now the first time that the HH have found decent W winds when exiting the southern side of the cerculation
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Keeping a close eye on Florence - watching her every move
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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