Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Ernesto slightly weaker; winds are down five knots, and pressure is up five millibars:

AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,
I personally don't think that they have found the strongest winds yet. Lowering the speed is a bit premature.
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4756. Patrap
8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 4
Location: 14.6°N 29.7°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,



Lol.

Half the posters thought this was a hurricane.

Pressure is weakest it's been in like 36 hours.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Ernesto is slightly weaker; winds are down five knots, and pressure is up five millibars:

AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,


a lot of people will be mad at this...so much for a hurricane this morning....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
8 am
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Do we get an 8 a.m. on Ernesto, or nothing til 11 a.m?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Ernesto slightly weaker; winds are down five knots, and pressure is up five millibars:

AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,

you've gotta be joking... O_________o
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4750. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Looks like the ridge backs-off some at 69 hrs. A larger storm in circumference it means it should feel the gap more. A turn more to the north would be logical and it may end up over that jet fuel tchp at 20n 85w. RI spot. Will shear keep it from becoming a monster? This storm is no joke.
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Do we get an 8 a.m. on Ernesto, or nothing til 11 a.m?
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Quoting RTSplayer:


That's not exactly what's happening.

The cone of uncertainty is designed so that at any given time there is a 66% chance that the storm will be inside the cone.

The line which is usually in the center of the cone is just where the greatest probability is.

The cone does not show you "every" solution or statistical possibility, only the middle 66% of where the EYE will be.

Then you have to figure WIND can be scores or hundreds of miles farther outside the cone than the eye itself.

That's why the wind probability map is so much wider area:



Further, the Official forecast does not always agree exactly with the TVCN anyway, or at least it used to not be so.

It would be pretty dumb if NHC just took the average of models and applied no human intuition, experience, or common sense...
Thank you. Very helpful. Its good to know that experience,insight are part of the equation.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
HOLY... I leave for a week and we get not one tropical storm, but two and an invest off of Florida? Mother of god...

Ernesto looks good, so does Florence. GOM looks like a good bet for Ernesto, Florence looks to be a fish to me. Will be more in depth later.


Hey man I missed you!
Glad to see you back. :)
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Ernesto is slightly weaker; winds are down five knots, and pressure is up five millibars:

AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6Z GFS


its far out but it initializes sooner so i trust a storm might form..
that might actually recurve if it can...E coast would need to watch but that is high latitude for a straight across run..might help it spin up better
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
What day is it coming off??
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thought I comment before I go.Ernesto will probably be a hurricane sometime today.Florence will hopefully stay out to sea and leave people alone.Watch the wave behind her though.It could become our next storm.
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4742. HarryMc
Geez. Did anybody notice Florence?? I didn't know they had already named her.
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4741. Patrap
ATCF has cleared the 06Z runs,and should be loading the 12Z ones shortly.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Thought I comment before I go.Ernesto will probably be a hurricane sometime today.Florence will hopefully stay out to sea and leave people alone.Watch the wave behind her though.It could become our next storm.
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4739. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 12:14Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 14

12:15:00Z 13.750N 67.517W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,550 meters
(~ 5,085 feet) 1008.1 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 193° at 23 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 26.4 mph) 16.5°C
(~ 61.7°F) 9.5°C
(~ 49.1°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 33.5 knots (~ 38.6 mph)
145.8%

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 12:05:30Z (first observation), the observation was 352 miles (567 km) to the SSW (201°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

At 12:15:00Z (last observation), the observation was 337 miles (542 km) to the SSW (197°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
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4737. Patrap
Africa will soon be spitting CV Waves out like a Beagle Mamma with pup's in May..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
4736. ackee
So Earnesto weaker ?
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4735. Patrap
Tropical Forecast Points & Zoom are Active

Ernesto Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
HOLY... I leave for a week and we get not one tropical storm, but two and an invest off of Florida? Mother of god...

Ernesto looks good, so does Florence. GOM looks like a good bet for Ernesto, Florence looks to be a fish to me. Will be more in depth later.
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storm.of.the.yr.after.this.fish.land
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Wow 99MB

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4731. Patrap
I wunder if Al Roker has a Wu Handle yet?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
4730. WxLogic
On SAT Ernesto looks decently solid but the LLC is a mess. The fast forward speed still not allowing it to consolidate better (Yes... slower than yesterday but still too fast).
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4729. guygee
Quoting RTSplayer(4707):


That's not exactly what's happening.

The cone of uncertainty is designed so that at any given time there is a 66% chance that the storm will be inside the cone.

The line which is usually in the center of the cone is just where the greatest probability is.

The cone does not show you "every" solution or statistical possibility, only the middle 66% of where the EYE will be.
[...]
Actually, that cone probability are based on the average forecast error, that is the forecast error averaged over all past storm forecasts in the last several years. This average error is not particularly relevant when there is a big disagreement in the models. Those probabilities do not apply to particular cases, only to the "typical" case. This forecast is atypical due to large model disagreement, so we need to pay attention when the NHC says the forecast is highly uncertain.
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4728. Patrap
Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
6Z GFS
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4726. HarryMc
Quoting Patrap:
These early morn Hours will be the slowest times here next week.


I for one will most likely be one of those who is occupied otherwise for a few mornings next week. Just bought a FourWinns S215 and plan to try a little fishing out around the Isles of Shoals. I just have to check the weather to make sure I won't need my new VHF with DSC GPS to get help.

Now... where could I get a good handle on weather... hum.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Landfall prediction is Yucatan Peninsular



bahahaha...and from there?!?
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4724. GetReal
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Quoting Articuno:
My landfall spot prediction is make landfall east of marsh island LA and going into either the Vermillion Bay or the West Cote Blanche Bay.

Landfall prediction is Yucatan Peninsular
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4722. centex
Quoting guygee:
This far out in the forecast I'll give you LA, say the MoM or east, that is about the westernmost extent that I can see. But even though the high is going to retrograde NW somewhat it will also strengthen, so I am thinking TX is the least likely destination. I am looking for a big track shift in the out days...we will see in 2-3 days now.
Maybe, but South Texas is a very reasonable solution.
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Quoting Patrap:
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)



trending south...
If ernesto bombs out, would it go more north?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
dont think HH hit the COC, they were due south of eastern hispaniola and the COC is not all the way over there based on sat..
they are going east now, maybe gonna scan the storm looking for a good center fix
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
4719. Patrap
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
4717. MoeWest
ABC island radar loop of Ernesto:

http://www.meteo.an/SatRadarImages/Img_Radar_ABC_ Cappi_Loop.asp

No wind here on Curacao. No rain. Bone dry.
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I hope this is not another Felix . Felix was supose to hit Belize but stayed a little further S and slamed into Niguaragua only giving them a couple of hrs warning
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4715. Patrap
These early morn Hours will be the slowest times here next week.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's not exactly what's happening.

The cone of uncertainty is designed so that at any given time there is a 66% chance that the storm will be inside the cone.

The line which is usually in the center of the cone is just where the greatest probability is.

The cone does not show you "every" solution or statistical possibility, only the middle 66% of where the EYE will be.

Then you have to figure WIND can be scores or hundreds of miles farther outside the cone than the eye itself.

That's why the wind probability map is so much wider area:



Further, the Official forecast does not always agree exactly with the TVCN anyway, or at least it used to not be so.

It would be pretty dumb if NHC just took the average of models and applied no human intuition, experience, or common sense...


particularly this go around. The models have been so haywire lately that no one could assume any one was accurate. Poorly initializing and downcasting the storm and based on that data proposing a likely inaccurate track. The global models are almost performing as stat models this go around. The NHC forecasters most definitely have their hands full, and it's for that reason they've maintained a progressive median forecast.
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4713. Patrap
Quoting HarryMc:

Picture came through ok. Good Morning.


G'morn, thanx..

That will save me like a full minute posting the new Models runs then.
Much appreciated.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting belizeit:
You can see by the dropsounde info that Ernesto is not properly stacked the wind changed 180 degrees the first couple of 100 ft that it felt


Yep. We've seen this kind of thing many times. The storm appears stronger than it really is because of improved mid-level structure. The surface organization and connection with the mid-level structure just isn't there, yet. Who knows when it'll get its act together. It could be later today or it could still be struggling to pull everything together two days from now.
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My landfall spot prediction is make landfall east of marsh island LA and going into either the Vermillion Bay or the West Cote Blanche Bay.
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Quoting guygee:
This far out in the forecast I'll give you LA, say the MoM or east, that is about the westernmost extent that I can see. But even though the high is going to retrograde NW somewhat it will also strengthen, so I am thinking TX is the least likely destination. I am looking for a big track shift in the out days...we will see in 2-3 days now.


I'm actually quite the opposite. I cannot imagine that kind of a track shift with it's current position and what synoptics are progged to be. If I were to place an extent, I think the absolute most easterly extent would be mobile, AL and that's a stretch even.
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If 91L survives FL it has a minute chance at development...
I don't expect anything, either way it will be very close to land its whole life
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting biloxibob:
i dont understand why the nhc uses an average of models,to propose a predicted path.


That's not exactly what's happening.

The cone of uncertainty is designed so that at any given time there is a 66% chance that the storm will be inside the cone.

The line which is usually in the center of the cone is just where the greatest probability is.

The cone does not show you "every" solution or statistical possibility, only the middle 66% of where the EYE will be.

Then you have to figure WIND can be scores or hundreds of miles farther outside the cone than the eye itself.

That's why the wind probability map is so much wider area:



Further, the Official forecast does not always agree exactly with the TVCN anyway, or at least it used to not be so.

It would be pretty dumb if NHC just took the average of models and applied no human intuition, experience, or common sense...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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