Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:


The Trend is holding there, and the obs as well, as far as track out 36,the Divergence is still there, but when Ernesto becomes a Cane and those G-4 Sniffs input, we should see some consensus forming. By Mon, Tues.


I agree, the models need a boost from the aircraft.
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Where do the Cayman Islanders evacuate to?
Nowhere unless they fly out to the US.
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Where do the Cayman Islanders evacuate to?
old.timers.use.to.go.into.caves..did.a.tour.once
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4804. Patrap
Quoting 892mb:
Patrap - 4780

Can you please explain the difference between the two sets of models you just posted? Thank you!!



Dated Material but a good read nonetheless.


Technical Attachment
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region

BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)

The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: . The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.



Three versions of the BAM model are run with shallow (850-700 mb), medium (850-400 mb), and deep (850-200 mb) layers. All three versions of the model are run operationally four times per day.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
4802. MoeWest
Urrnesto
Photobucket

Curacao
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Quoting Patrap:


The Trend is holding there, and the obs as well, as far as track out 36,thew Divergence is there, but when Ernesto becomes a Cane and those G-4 Sniffs input, we should see some consensus forming. By Mon, Tues.
Are you thinking a more northerly track?
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4798. Patrap
Quoting reedzone:


Makes more sense unfortunately, a stronger system would be more likely to move more north. Ernesto is stronger then what the models are initializing. The global ones are currently useless.


The Trend is holding there, and the obs as well, as far as track out 36,the Divergence is still there, but when Ernesto becomes a Cane and those G-4 Sniffs input, we should see some consensus forming. By Mon, Tues.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
4797. 892mb
Patrap - 4780

Can you please explain the difference between the two sets of models you just posted? Thank you!!
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
guys, we in trouble for cayman , please ensure preps are in place , i gotta make last checks on genset and supplies today, monday roll around there is gonna be panic .
Thanks . Did all my prep work last night. Just boarding up left to do.
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4795. GetReal
Quoting Patrap:
Read um and weep.

Lordy

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts




What a spread between the Dynamic and Statistical models... I know that I'm not liking what i am seeing for obvious reasons.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
See they are looking at a center due south of eastern hispaniola, which is not where the center of the clouds is on sat, now a new convec blowup may be occuring over this center, which may be the real center, meaning ernesto was never symettrical like it looked:
\

NOTE, the sat i mention is not google earth sat,, i dont trust google earth sat to be correct because i find it not to be so accurate


Look at RGB.

The CoC is open to the north, and there is a small finger of dry air going into it (which has little to nothing to do with the dry air off to the west).

This is why this isn't a top tier TS or hurricane.

Will probably take another 6 to 12 to close off the CoC again. It does pass over some warmer, deeper waters in 12 hours also, so maybe that will help. It was over a cold pocket most of the night...
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4792. Patrap
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
LOL... GFDL hits New Orleans as a Cat 4...


No Humor from our perspective..fer sure.

And folks west and east of the Mouth of the River.

Bad Mojo afoot.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Quoting RTSplayer:


John Hope rule.

Its very rare to see anything over there do any real intensification.

It's got about another 18 hours before the CoC gets out of it.


whats the john hope rule?
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Quoting Patrap:
Read um and weep.

Lordy

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts



Makes more sense unfortunately, a stronger system would be more likely to move more north. Ernesto is stronger then what the models are initializing. The global ones are currently useless.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


John Hope rule.

Its very rare to see anything over there do any real intensification.

It's got about another 18 hours before the CoC gets out of it.
gilbert.kicked.butt.there..system.pointing.n.west
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it would seem the center is just west of the big blob, and may be getting a convec blowup now over it now, possibly depending on where exactly it is:

Ernesto RAMSDIS sat loop
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Quoting Articuno:

How?

this is weird. O_o
How can a storm look better and weaken at the same time?


John Hope rule.

Its very rare to see anything over there do any real intensification.

It's got about another 18 hours before the CoC gets out of it.
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Good Morning!

GM to you, too! Are you and Falcon Lake ready for this?
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Quoting belizeit:
Just a little reminder Levi was more right than most of us yesterday.


Actually if you watch his video, he said Ernesto will probably open up to a wave today, which it is clearly not doing. I respect Levi, he's a great forecaster.. Though I don't think he got this one right. We all have our mishaps and mistakes. In fact, we may see Hurricane Ernesto later today if the trend continues.
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4782. guygee
Quoting huntsvle:
particularly this go around. The models have been so haywire lately that no one could assume any one was accurate. Poorly initializing and downcasting the storm and based on that data proposing a likely inaccurate track. The global models are almost performing as stat models this go around. The NHC forecasters most definitely have their hands full, and it's for that reason they've maintained a progressive median forecast.
Yes! That is my point exactly, the forecast is the "median" as you call it. The models are split into 2 sets, one of those will end up being correct, the other not correct. So the best course that the NHC can take in the face of uncertainty is to take the middle path, so that later adjustments are minimized.

That is exactly what they have been saying in their past few discussions, as well as emphasizing the uncertainty of the forecast in the out days, so I do not see why anyone is not expecting some track adjustments...just wait, they are coming.
BBL
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Looking at the recon on google earth, it seems as if they are flying a pattern on the leading edge of the storm, not through the center. Maybe they are trying to sample all parts?
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4780. Patrap


12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Quoting centex:
Maybe, but South Texas is a very reasonable solution.

Bob Rose thinks so, too. Kenedy County is my hope.
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4778. GetReal
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


a lot of people will be mad at this...so much for a hurricane this morning....



I am one of those that was fooled by the satellite presentation.
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See they are looking at a center due south of eastern hispaniola, which is not where the center of the clouds is on sat, now a new convec blowup may be occuring over this center, which may be the real center, meaning ernesto was never symettrical like it looked:
\

NOTE, the sat i mention is not google earth sat,, i dont trust google earth sat to be correct because i find it not to be so accurate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys, we in trouble for cayman , please ensure preps are in place , i gotta make last checks on genset and supplies today, monday roll around there is gonna be panic .
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Good Morning!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Just a little reminder Levi was more right than most of us yesterday.
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4773. Patrap
Quoting GetReal:


The late Dr. John Hope, of TWC fame, you to always say that you could sometimes get a hint of a storms future movement by the way it was tilted. I wonder if this tilted look here means that Ernesto may begin a more WNW movement soon.


By the way Pat what a lightning show we are currently getting here in NOLA!!!


Boomers, to keep the Hades temps away.

But if it keeps up they will be scrambling to get these Uptown Cars on the Neutral Grounds.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
4772. Patrap
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What time will the Master Bot appear?


I bet Dr. M is cranking up his next entry up in Ann Arbor.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
4771. GetReal


The late Dr. John Hope, of TWC fame, you to always say that you could sometimes get a hint of a storms future movement by the way it was tilted. I wonder if this tilted look here means that Ernesto may begin a more WNW movement soon.


By the way Pat what a lightning show we are currently getting here in NOLA!!!
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These "F storms" ... ugh! If Florence really is going to weaken as she comes across, that's worrisome to me. See path of Frederic (1979); he faded out so bad on his trek across, they later called him "the born-again hurricane"! September 12, 1979 changed MY life ... rough, rough night....
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What time will the Master Bot appear?
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4768. maeko
Holy Moley! SUDDENLY 3!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
Been the pattern with Ernesto, when a HH is in, He is Inhaling, when they orbit out and Home, He is exhaling.

: )


Or when Allan is working, Ernesto strengthens ;)
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4766. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Do we get an 8 a.m. on Ernesto, or nothing til 11 a.m?
Wow a member from 2002 asking such a question you should be a expert after all these years we had a speacial update at 8
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Quoting RTSplayer:



Lol.

Half the posters thought this was a hurricane.

Pressure is weakest it's been in like 36 hours.

How?

this is weird. O_o
How can a storm look better and weaken at the same time?
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4763. Patrap
Been the pattern with Ernesto, when a HH is in, He is Inhaling, when they orbit out and Home, He is exhaling.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ernesto is slightly weaker; winds are down five knots, and pressure is up five millibars:

AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,


Recon will sort out what we truly have after a few more passes.
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Quoting Articuno:

you've gotta be joking... O_________o


We'll see...
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NHC going back for same center, if that is the true center, almost all the convection is east of the center and ernesto is nowhere near a symettrical storm
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Good morning! I'm very distressed.

I wake up to a stronger, bigger, but slower Ernesto.

Here in Jamaica we're celebrating 50 years of Independence. Huge celebrations for Monday (long weekend) and here comes Ernesto to rain on our parade.

On top of which we're all glued to the Olympics for track and field.

Sincerely hoping for a miracle!!!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Ernesto slightly weaker; winds are down five knots, and pressure is up five millibars:

AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 50, 1010, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,
I personally don't think that they have found the strongest winds yet. Lowering the speed is a bit premature.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.