Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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4906. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
ATCF has dropped the runs for 91 and has not updated
yes its at 10% now but....it has not entered the gulfstream with all that mid 80's water coming from the gulf yet..just a big rain maker so far
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting mobileshadow:
The pattern does not support anything other than a Mexico strike at this time and it's amazing and sad to me that people are trying to wishcast this storm in the area that they live in. If you want a storm so bad then go chase Ernesto but to chase this one you will need a passport and friends in the Cartel to protect you cause chasing in Mexico is dangerous.


I disagree, the remnants of 91L will create more of a weakness for Ernesto to pull north into the GOM. Also the global models (GFS, EURO) are garbage until they are fueled with G-4 data.
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4903. MoeWest
Quoting BahaHurican:
R u guys getting rain / wind? it looks like Ernesto's staying to ur north...


No rain. No wind.
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4902. Patrap
One can see the Dry air running n front of Ernesto



But note the core is sealed fairly well from it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125601
Quoting mobileshadow:
The pattern does not support anything other than a Mexico strike at this time and it's amazing and sad to me that people are trying to wishcast this storm in the area that they live in. If you want a storm so bad then go chase Ernesto but to chase this one you will need a passport and friends in the Cartel to protect you cause chasing in Mexico is dangerous.


Thats funny, the models must be wishcasting too as they are showing now a northern gomex storm
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I'd really like to know why tropical storms do this in the Eastern Caribbean. Emily looked like a strong TS when it truth it was exactly like Ernesto was.
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4899. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125601
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 12:29:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°19'N 68°05'W (14.3167N 68.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 312 miles (502 km) to the SSE (157°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,477m (4,846ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 200° at 29kts (From the SSW at ~ 33.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the north quadrant at 11:13:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:56:00Z
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Navy COAMPS



Camille keeps popping into my head:



RI right at the Gap and a clean passage through it, goes straight poleward. I think the models are planning for high pressure that won't be there in 5 days.
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4895. LargoFl
Quoting BahaHurican:
That trip over FL is supposed to keep 91L pretty weak, right?
yes so far, but we must watch it when it crosses the gulfstream, might get to be a depression then...but all in all..this will be a BIG rain maker and might throw off some severe storms..probably be a big lightning event with the heating of the day...i sure hope its a fast mover.....remember Debby wasnt a powerful storm either..and she dumped 2 feet of rain in some places..whew
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
4894. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125601
Quoting MoeWest:


Curacao
R u guys getting rain / wind? it looks like Ernesto's staying to ur north...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The pattern definitely supports a Gulf Coast hit. And this is coming from somebody living in North Carolina, so...



Mobile is a troll
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4891. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125601
Lets see if Ernesto will reform further to the east under the heavy convection it looks like the trade winds have pushed out his low level center wich is visible on the sat pic
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, Ernesto is portraying a nice satellite signature.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.9mb/ 63.0kt


Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION




Then why isn't the actual plane in the system getting numbers anywhere near that?


Second, why does the Radar also agree with me that the CoC is highly disorganized and has a gaping hole on the north side?





Look at that. This is not impressive to me at all.

37dbz max reflectivity?

That's pathetic. A dry cloud beats that some days.
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4887. Patrap
ATCF has dropped the runs for 91 and has not updated
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125601
It looks like its trying to become annular
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looks like a new center is trying to form just NE of the hunters fix where that new burst of convection I hope the hunters fly over the E side I think there will be surprises waiting for them
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im back. i still think ernesto will make landfall in the northeastern yucatan before remerging into the Gulf and will head NW towards texas
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting mobileshadow:
The pattern does not support anything other than a Mexico strike at this time and it's amazing and sad to me that people are trying to wishcast this storm in the area that they live in. If you want a storm so bad then go chase Ernesto but to chase this one you will need a passport and friends in the Cartel to protect you cause chasing in Mexico is dangerous.

The pattern definitely supports a Gulf Coast hit. And this is coming from somebody living in North Carolina, so...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30255
4881. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:04Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

13:05:00Z 15.433N 69.433W 842.8 mb

(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,584 meters
(~ 5,197 feet) 1011.2 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 75° at 25 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 28.7 mph) 17.4°C
(~ 63.3°F) 9.5°C
(~ 49.1°F) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 16.7 knots (~ 19.2 mph)
66.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 12:55:30Z (first observation), the observation was 221 miles (356 km) to the SSE (168°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

At 13:05:00Z (last observation), the observation was 213 miles (343 km) to the S (172°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125601
Quoting LargoFl:
..........................does anyone have todays forecast track for 91L coming over florida?
That trip over FL is supposed to keep 91L pretty weak, right?
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4879. GetReal


Ernesto is being coy.
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are the HH done going through Ernesto? I just find it hard to believe that he's weaker
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Link
Some video of current conditions at Mayaguez, Puerto Rico.
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Back to sleep I go. Too early to be getting trolled by Ernesto. Lol.
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4874. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
The pattern does not support anything other than a Mexico strike at this time and it's amazing and sad to me that people are trying to wishcast this storm in the area that they live in. If you want a storm so bad then go chase Ernesto but to chase this one you will need a passport and friends in the Cartel to protect you cause chasing in Mexico is dangerous.
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Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

thanx, pat. watching TS Florence as well, and not liking the way most of the models are not turning this out to sea... that one is high enough to give a fright to anybody from Antigua to VA... if it lasts...
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Satellite estimates are useless compared to HH data. Basically, the satellites are seeing what we see. The HH are finding otherwise.
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4870. MoeWest
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all...

Where is this?


Curacao
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4869. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
4868. Patrap
NOW TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE


8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 4
Location: 14.6N 29.7W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125601
I'll be lurking for a while still tired lol back a lil later.
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Plane is finding that Ernesto is a weak TS. Satellite imagery clearly doesn't tell the whole story, thus the value in recon. New model guidance is all into the Yucatan then W-WNW into Mexico to maybe as far north as south TX. Only the GFDL and HWRF disagree and take it north toward western FL.
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From the NHC, hello Florence.
000
WTNT61 KNHC 041132
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2012 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 14:14:25 N Lon : 67:57:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.9mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -67.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 66km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.6 degrees

************************************************* ***
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30255



Shear will not be an issue imo and continues to fall.

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4862. Patrap
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.9mb/ 63.0kt


Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION



The storm is cycling, maybe for the first time with a Warm Tower being Built.

As the appearance improves its going to take awhile longer for the pressure to fall and the winds to respond.

Been the trend when the HH are in He has been Inhaling, and when they exit home, he is exhaling.

The Ol' "Shuck and Jive" Tempo
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125601
4861. LargoFl
..........................does anyone have todays forecast track for 91L coming over florida?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Ernesto looks much bigger though maybe he's doing what Ike did and widening instead of strengthening
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Quoting RTSplayer:



Because that's not a nice signature on satellite.

It has a big hole of dry air on it's northern side, which wraps all the way around to the west and the CoC.



No, Ernesto is portraying a nice satellite signature.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.9mb/ 63.0kt


Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

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4858. 900MB
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wonder why Ernesto has not strengthened despite its very nice signature on satellite.



It's a pretty big system. The bigger, the longer it takes to get its act together, but when it does....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wonder why Ernesto has not strengthened despite its very nice signature on satellite.


RTS says he had to spend the night over cold water, and as of 5a EDT he was still doing 18mph. Maybe once he finds a nice warm spot he'll slow down and breathe some.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.