Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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5006. MoeWest
Quoting Bitmap7:


Link


Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5005. WxLogic
Quoting Bitmap7:


Curacao soundings indicate a lot of dry air to the south of Ernesto.


Here's another view of that dry air:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
4957...that's why I always put Neapolitan on ignore. That, and because of his moronic global warming takes.


too bad....you miss out on Neapolitan posts
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
good morning all. my thinking on Ernesto is still the picture on where he is going will come clear tomorrow sunday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You hang onto that forecast..



Only 2 models still (TRENDING) north GFDL and HWRF. Last run from the euro decouples the low/mid level circulations which has me wondering but based on sat trends its looking rather unlikely. As of now iam leaning towards the trof not being strong enough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Whoa! Did I say a single word about "the men and women that fly into these dangerous storms"? I was talking about the nonsensical, anti-government, anti-NHC conspiracy theory garbage that gets spewed here on occasion, especially when the NHC doesn't do precisely what some people wish they would. I've seen them simultaneously accused of both naming things they shouldn't (to pad the record so they can promote a "climate change agenda") and not naming things they should (so they don't "scare" people).

As I said: nonsense.


He said they were trying to make their forecast right....But how are republicans anti government and anti-NHC?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
I would say Ernesto has weakened some due to dry air chopping the northern side.. Give it a day, he'll be a Hurricane.

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4998. Patrap
There is nothing "Moronic" about AGW as far as the Science goes.

Esp in this authors entry.

That, I can assure anyone.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history

An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma

The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
4996. LargoFl
....................................IF..this proves true...look at 120 hours
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
4995. Bitmap7
Quoting MoeWest:


Mr Bitmap where did you get this?


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
4866...that's because the "plane" is driven by snivelling humans associated with the corrupted US government, which I'd trust Pinocchio over. It's a plot to try to make the NHC look better with its predictions.


Usually this would just be instant "iggy"
but, before that just want to state my heartfelt support to men and women - groundcrew and aircrew of HH - this comment is gross insult to those (and those who support them)doing a dangerous job - demanding superb airmanship standards - day and night when called.
Have this wonderful image of altesticstorm2012 strapped into a seat on a C-130 HH, howling in fear and puking his heart out as spiral bands and eye wall flown through!
Sorry - rant over!!
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Quoting LargoFl:
. ..if i was on the western side of the gulf, i would forget ernesto for the time being and watch, say monday morning..where this 91L is in the gulf and is it rebuilding in the hot gulf waters............there are no mountains in florida..only dry land..hopefully it dies overland in florida..if not...well....


How can you say something like that! I always hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Ppl in the Gulf coast need to keep an eye on Ernesto and the other systems as well. I will forget Ernesto when the NHC issues at least the 5 day cone pointing somewhere else. PPl who forget about it now might find themselves in big trouble. The NHC has very low confidence in the future track because of the slit in the models once it enters the GOMEX.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS,

ATCF weakens Ernesto to 50 mph
HOW IS HE WEAKER? he looks really well.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
4989. MoeWest
Quoting Bitmap7:


Curacao soundings indicate a lot of dry air to the south of Ernesto.


Mr Bitmap where did you get this?
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4988. Patrap
TFP's and ZOOM are active

Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting jpsb:
I just can not let that one slide by. Freepers have nothing but respect for the men and women that fly into these dangerous storms. You are way out of line on that comment.
Whoa! Did I say a single word about "the men and women that fly into these dangerous storms"? I was talking about the nonsensical, anti-government, anti-NHC conspiracy theory garbage that gets spewed here on occasion, especially when the NHC doesn't do precisely what some people wish they would. I've seen them simultaneously accused of both naming things they shouldn't (to pad the record so they can promote a "climate change agenda") and not naming things they should (so they don't "scare" people).

As I said: nonsense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A track to Mexico can certainly happen, especially if Ernesto stays weak, but I agree that Ernesto will strengthen into a dangerous Hurricane. You cannot count that high TCHP out.. A stronger storm is more inclined to move closer to a weakness... The GFDL and HWRF show a good point in seeing a bigger weakness influenced by the remnants of 91L. Although my forecast is around LA to TX. To simply say it's not going to the GOM is immature.
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So did the center relocate?
Because looking at the video, the center seems to be in one spot before the new blowup comes adn it seems to be somewhere else..
you can almost see the rotation move just a tad east towards the "new" center, but its most likely my eyes tricking me
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
4984. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS,

ATCF weakens Ernesto to 50 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4982. Bitmap7
Quoting yqt1001:


Now, it could be off center as the sat image is 15 minutes after the last recon pass through the center. I'm not sure but the sat image itself could be very well off. It looks pretty close though.


From that center fix the LLC seems to be situated well under the cloud cover, so I don't think the weakening is attributed to the LLC speeding away but rather that streak of dry air we are seeing now. I think its safe to assume it may have be stronger a few hours ago but with that much dry air it may have weakened a bit. Its up to Ernesto to churn it out now. Lucky for him this is happening during DMAX.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Massive dry intrusion.




May choke this sucker down even more.


yea, that's a huge invasion on Ernesto...
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4979. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting reedzone:


Not with a bigger weakness on the gulf coast influenced by the remnants of 91L.. You can't simply write the Gulf Coast out. Yes, I don't want anybody hurt but I'm looking at reality here instead of simply saying it's not gonna happen. People need to be aware of what may turn out to be a very dangerous situation on their hands next week.


Someone is going to get the effects of this system regardless. Either the Mexican coast or the Gulf Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4977. LargoFl
. ..if i was on the western side of the gulf, i would forget ernesto for the time being and watch, say monday morning..where this 91L is in the gulf and is it rebuilding in the hot gulf waters............there are no mountains in florida..only dry land..hopefully it dies overland in florida..if not...well....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting Articuno:

Page 50 for me. :)

Page 25 for me...
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Quoting Articuno:

Page 50 for me. :)


my computer is not that powerful to load 100comments worth of text, and imagery
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
IM SO HAPPY ITS PAGE 100

Page 50 for me. :)
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Frankly, I'm more worried about Florence. That scheduled spin-down severely cuts any chances of it going up the centre of the ATL, but leaves it in a position where in the 6-10 day period it may restrengthen.

And u know the F storm is the one that always trashes the Bahamas.

Things are either going to be VERY interesting next week, or a HUGE anticlimax.... lol

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!!!! I'M SO HAPPY ITS PAGE 100 !!!!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting wunderkidcayman: there is no dry air intrusion


Visible, water vapor, and two radars disagree.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You hang onto that forecast..

I also expect those models to shift to the right more i just cannot see that High hold all the way to the eastern gulf with a weakness opening up which is what the GFDL depicts
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You hang onto that forecast..




Lol good one
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You hang onto that forecast..

i thought that it was starting to slow down.18 mph,down from 22mph. I think significant intensification will begin around 75 long.
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This should definitely get a center fix then..
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4966. yqt1001


Now, it could be off center as the sat image is 15 minutes after the last recon pass through the center. I'm not sure though because the sat image itself could be very well off, but it looks pretty close to the real center.
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4965. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting hurricane23:


Model trends are encouraging this morning for the gulfcoast its quick westward speed will defeat any immediate move towards the Gulf.


Morning Adrian. Tend to agree that a continued westward motion is most likely per everything the models have said the past few days. But I also can't help but notice that the moisture path in front of Ernesto is off to the WNW or NW. This type of moisture path has often shown the short term direction of other storms, although not always I guess. That coupled with the fact that the HWRF and GFDL are still holding on to that more northerly turn is interesting at the least.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Model trends are encouraging this morning for the gulfcoast its quick westward speed will defeat any immediate move towards the Gulf.


Not with a bigger weakness on the gulf coast influenced by the remnants of 91L.. You can't simply write the Gulf Coast out. Yes, I don't want anybody hurt but I'm looking at reality here instead of simply saying it's not gonna happen. People need to be aware of what may turn out to be a very dangerous situation on their hands next week.
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4962. Bitmap7


Curacao soundings indicate a lot of dry air to the south of Ernesto.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Model trends are encouraging this morning for the gulfcoast its quick westward speed will defeat any immediate move towards the Gulf.
they are encouraging but i have a feeling its going to go futher to the right than the models depict , the models have been terrible the only one than has fared a bit better has been the gfdl
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there is no dry air intrusion


I also noted with the 12Z models for ernesto have shifted N
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4959. LargoFl
...............................................me anwhile the big event This weekend is the deluge of rain and wind and lightning that is going to hit and cross over florida these next 2 whole days..flooding is going to be a big issue i think....and hopefully 91L will not build into a tropical depression when it hits the gulfstream
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting hurricane23:


Model trends are encouraging this morning for the gulfcoast its quick westward speed will defeat any immediate move towards the Gulf.

You hang onto that forecast..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32265
4957. jpsb
Quoting Neapolitan:
You do realize that a large number of forum members are putting you on ignore this very second for such an inane and illogical series of comments, don't you? Baseless anti-government paranoia and TP chest-beating is welcome among freepers, but not here...
I just can not let that one slide by. Freepers have nothing but respect for the men and women that fly into these dangerous storms. You are way out of line on that comment.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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