Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GetReal:


Eye beginning to form???

Ernesto is behaving atypically all around: strengthening in daytime, weakening at night, building an eye and long spiral bands while at TS status, hauling at 24mph.
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Quoting caribbeantracker01:
doc what is really stopping Ernesto from taking off at the moment ?



Forward speed. Its moving so fast it cannot establish a good mid-upper level circulation and is confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere. If it was to slow down it would probably get better organized.
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Didn't change the prelim discussion much

...ERNESTO...

THE BIGGEST ISSUE/PROBLEM THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ERNESTO...WHICH
THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE THROUGH BELIZE/THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH IS A BIT
SOUTHWEST OF THE NHC TRACK...WHICH MID PERIOD IS CLOSEST TO THE
00Z CANADIAN MODEL THAT ULTIMATELY TAKES THE STORM TOWARDS THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
PRECEDING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD LURE ERNESTO UP TOWARDS THE 30TH
PARALLEL...BUT THAT ASSUMES A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHICH
IS MINIMALLY SHEARED. COMPROMISES WERE MADE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING AND THE CANADIAN MODEL...WITH SOME INPUT GATHERED FROM
NHC ON THE 08Z CONFERENCE CALL WHICH CAUSED SOME SLIGHT SLOWING.
FOR NOW...ITS PRESSURE HAS BEEN DRAWN DOWN BELOW 1000 HPA TO
INDICATE A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT ITS FUTURE DEPENDS
ON WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN EFFECTIVELY FIGHT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET STEERING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD
IMPARTS ON THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC CONCERNING ERNESTO.
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Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north.
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Quoting DataNerd:
I still don't see this mythical eye.
Read what it says. He doesn't say there is an eye he said recon reported beginning to build an eyewall. If you put up one wall do you have a house or just the beginning of a house ? Leave it to the experts.
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the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting
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Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Doesn't help much :/
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doc what is really stopping Ernesto from taking off at the moment ?
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Quoting floridaT:
"resulting in the storm entering the gulf of mexico by the middle of next week" not a good scenario scary in fact
..water temps in the gulf are..geez..gasoline for a storm
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Quoting AussieStorm:

So just because YOU can't see it on Satellite, YOU say there is no eyewall. The Hurricane Hunters are INSIDE Ernesto, closer than any weather satellite can get yet your still dissing what they found.



I am looking right at the thing on radar and sat I see no eye, only a vigorous LLC


I am not asking for vote or for anyone to care what I think I am simply stating I do not see this feature, which is why I asked specifically what coordinates are you seeing this at/is it supposed to be at?

If its there I would like to see it too.
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Quoting DataNerd:
I still don't see this mythical eye.


You don't have to see it when the hurricane hunters are in the system giving us real information. That's all I need to know.
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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If you ask me just a tad west and south of St. Lucia looks like the early formations of an eyewall
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Quoting ncstorm:


from the previous blog..
it wont get into the gulf once it starts crossing Florida..its supposed to hook a hard right and head back to the east coast..which might also set up ernesto in pulling it north and hooking a right..
..whew..we surely must be paying attention next week huh..
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"resulting in the storm entering the gulf of mexico by the middle of next week" not a good scenario scary in fact
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read.lots.of.books.about.hurricanes...once.they.get .an.eye....watch.out..cat.4
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hello. can you please send me a link of where you got these maps? thanks
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Thx dr. masters

This is what happens when lightning strikes a wind turbine. Thanks to Deb Bushman for taking the picture:



De ja vu with the comments on the last blog with jeffs and pocamoca.
cant remember what happened to ernesto in the end though. lol.
But its on the tip of my brain, from a dream...

Doc seems optimistic about its survival chances...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting jascott1967:
As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.
..yes this could turn out to be very bad for you folks, im hoping ernesto falls apart..which still could happen...but..the time for preparations in NOW and i hope you folks there are doing so..just a few days left..to all of us on the whole gulf coast..good luck and stay safe out there
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Quoting jascott1967:
As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.

If it was up to me, I'd love to see a storm stall out over the GOM and choke itself to death on upwelling.

That said, I hope that the dome of hot air put out by wishcasters doesn't push a storm towards TX.
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Quoting jascott1967:
As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.
I've been through that Derecho this year.And let me tell you I couldn't even stand three days without any power.It is not something to play around with.I wish this on nobody.As you stated in your post you also have to pick up mess.
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Quoting DataNerd:



I don't honestly know what they are seeing. But there is no eye.


There is not even a mid level circulation hardly at this point.


If this continues it will be dead by noon.
I agree with TA13. You're not in the storm yourself, and the recon is. They seem to have found the beginnings of an eyewall. How do you know there is no mid-level circulation. If there wasn't, this most likely wouldn't be Ernesto at the moment. This storm is really fighting, and is winning. Rant over. :)
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Quoting DataNerd:



I don't honestly know what they are seeing. But there is no eye.


There is not even a mid level circulation hardly at this point.


If this continues it will be dead by noon.

So just because YOU can't see it on Satellite, YOU say there is no eyewall. The Hurricane Hunters are INSIDE Ernesto, closer than any weather satellite can get yet your still dissing what they found.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting jascott1967:
As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.



Seconded.


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Probably the most durable TS for a while. havent seen one try to form an eyewall while entering the dreadful carribean
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This area in the Bahamas actually is better organized than I thought. I must say I wasn't expecting that. Could 91L later today.



..morning stormtracker..we in florida really need to watch this one..it crosses over florida
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As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.
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"The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall."

I mean... you can't really get much clearer than that.
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Quoting stoormfury:
WHAT A NERD
Ooooookay.
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Quoting reedzone:


Satellite shows it to... Look extremely closely at the system, you'll see half an eye wall looking feature in the storm.


Ernesto is organizing despite the dry air and wind shear.



I zoomed on the RGB loop and I want to see what you guys are talking about.



Coordinates of where your seeing it?
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This area in the Bahamas actually is better organized than I thought. I must say I wasn't expecting that. Could 91L later today.



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one note of interest..ernesto at the beginning of next week will be entering the southern gulf, while the yellow circle on the east coast( whatever it becomes)..crosses florida into the northern gulf..its going to be a wild next week all along the gulf coast..posting here will be in the thousands lol
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Quoting DataNerd:



I don't honestly know what they are seeing. But there is no eye.


There is not even a mid level circulation hardly at this point.


If this continues it will be dead by noon.

?? were talking about eyewall not the eye itself...think it right!!
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Eye beginning to form???
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gonna get a little busy doc hope you are ready for the wacky 2012 season



Wacky is right. Look at the spread.


And here I was hoping to go about my business without worrying about the tropics this year per El Nino.
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Looks like the NHC knew what they were doing from the start.Good job NHC.I think they deserve a round of applause :).
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was just stated by Dr. Masters and recon reported it. You can't go against recon, sorry.


Satellite shows it to... Look extremely closely at the system, you'll see half an eye wall looking feature in the storm.


Ernesto is organizing despite the dry air and wind shear.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
12.

Do I need to bust out my spray again?
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gonna get a little busy doc hope you are ready for the wacky 2012 season
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2012 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 13:36:09 N Lon : 61:52:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1001.5mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.4 2.3

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -29.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 13:00:00 N Lon: 61:40:11 W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was just stated by Dr. Masters and recon reported it. You can't go against recon, sorry.



I don't honestly know what they are seeing. But there is no eye.


There is not even a mid level circulation hardly at this point.


If this continues it will be dead by noon.
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Thanks DRM.

Updated prelim

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thanks Dr masters.
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Quoting Pocamocca:

That's because there isn't any.

It was just stated by Dr. Masters and recon reported it. You can't go against recon, sorry.
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Keep looking its there!...btw thanks doc!
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Thanks Dr. Masters!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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