Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting uptxcoast:
Nothing more fun than cutting up tree limbs, standing in line at Home Depot trying to get some quickcrete, digging Fence post holes with no AC and a cold shower if you are lucky. (Actually it is kind of like being in the Army out in the field)

All that and trying to get to work.

Amazingly enough After Hurricane Ike, Houston Drivers became some of the most polite drivers I had ever seen, stopping at all the non working traffic lights and treating them like a 4-way stop. As soon as everything was somewhat back to normal, everyone resumed the normal hostile/aggressive driving...

I don't wish to go through that again anytime soon. Hurricanes are best seen on the news from far away. It is not an adventure, it is 4 or 5 hours of extreme weather followed by a couple of weeks of suck.


BINGO ! Thank you.

Wishcasters please read this post and be more sensitive when you post.
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Quoting uptxcoast:
Nothing more fun than cutting up tree limbs, standing in line at Home Depot trying to get some quickcrete, digging Fence post holes with no AC and a cold shower if you are lucky. (Actually it is kind of like being in the Army out in the field)

All that and trying to get to work.

Amazingly enough After Hurricane Ike, Houston Drivers became some of the most polite drivers I had ever seen, stopping at all the non working traffic lights and treating them like a 4-way stop. As soon as everything was somewhat back to normal, everyone resumed the normal hostile/aggressive driving...

I don't wish to go through that again anytime soon. Hurricanes are best seen on the news from far away. It is not an adventure, it is 4 or 5 hours of extreme weather followed by a couple of weeks of suck.



Agreed wholeheartedly.


Took me months to clean things up. Course I live in Galveston part time.
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That me i'm in WPB lol
Quoting StormTracker2K:
NAM shows the low closing off Saturday night east of West Palm Beach.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
NAM shows the low closing off Saturday night east of West Palm Beach.

..we just might get one ST
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Quoting Pocamocca:

Good for you. Trust who you will. That's your business.

As to assuming another is wacky and speculates to get inside their head that they know more than professionals...that's your business to work on too.


Not really. What is the point of having HH if people are going to knowingly ignore/discount the information provided... instead relying on their own naked and not professional eye?

To give him credit, he later asked where the coordinates were that everyones seeing this eye wall formation, so I jumped the gun on my critique. But he should've simply asked where the first time instead of implying the HH and Dr. Masters were simply wrong because he didn't see what they see...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
Quoting DataNerd:
Finally found the bugger. Northern periphery near the the new t storms in the last frame of the rgb loop.
Link

Sheesh that is pretty obscure.



I need a break from this storm, its beginning to feel like a roller coaster.

even on that loop I can't see the eyewall. But I trust the HH crew cause they are seeing it with their own eyes.
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Quoting Patrap:
AL902012 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery




That looks close to TD. Very vigorous.
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Quoting hydrus:
Some of us have said for months that El-Nino effects will not arrive in time to slow cyclone development this year.



Call me an "el nino" wisher then, I had my fingers crossed.

Again having been through Ike 4 years ago and only recently having finished dealing with that from a business perspective I have no desire to have another major event. A rainy TS or Cat 1 is fine but no carribean monsters thank you.


Anyway seems you guys were right, its taken too long to develop and the High pressure situation is disrupting the trade winds anyway.
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AL902012 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128647
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8896
NAM shows the low closing off Saturday night east of West Palm Beach.

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Quoting jascott1967:
As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.


I agree 100%. I hope you are spared.

As a Miami resident, and Andrew survivor, I know all to well the destruction, horror, heartache and misery caused by these monsters. Seeing the "wishcasting" on here always makes my blood boil.

I come here to see relevant discussion about what may or may not occur and whether or not my property & life could be in danger.

But many posters here it seems are only interested in seeing how strong and how much destruction and hurt these storms can do. They taunt and then pooh-pooh anyone that comes here for REAL reasons.

For those that want to wishcast, please keep your joy at seeing these monsters to a minimum.
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..............................GFS at 42 hours...looks like a good rain event coming for south west florida,i think someone here said they need rain down there..if this GFS proves true..the rains are coming for you folks next week
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94. 7544
Link
Quoting LargoFl:
..any of the models showing a track for this yet?


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxma p_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012080 300&set=Tropical
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Quoting jascott1967:
As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.


Agreed. Hoping this stays clear of us!! Everyone else too!
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with organization of ernesto look good and getting better and I think convection will start to really pop soon things could get kicked off very very quickly
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
It's interesting to note that even as the most recent Oklahoma heat wave abates a bit--temperatures will "only" be around 100 next week--the West, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, are finally out of the cooler and headed for heat. Parts of Washington and Oregon and forecast should be in the mid-90s this weekend; tomorrow's forecast high in Portland, for instance, is 95. And moving into next week, that big blob o'heat will spread east and south:

hot
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Looks like Ernesto will be 'interesting' over the next week or so. As I go back to workshops and then teaching next week, it'll be back to catching up in the evenings again for me.



At the rate its moving now it would be in the gulf, assuming that forecast held, by tuesday night.
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Quoting DataNerd:



Wacky is right. Look at the spread.


And here I was hoping to go about my business without worrying about the tropics this year per El Nino.
Some of us have said for months that El-Nino effects will not arrive in time to slow cyclone development this year.
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I dont see any eye either but I do see nice outflow to the N and E.
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Nothing more fun than cutting up tree limbs, standing in line at Home Depot trying to get some quickcrete, digging Fence post holes with no AC and a cold shower if you are lucky. (Actually it is kind of like being in the Army out in the field)

All that and trying to get to work.

Amazingly enough After Hurricane Ike, Houston Drivers became some of the most polite drivers I had ever seen, stopping at all the non working traffic lights and treating them like a 4-way stop. As soon as everything was somewhat back to normal, everyone resumed the normal hostile/aggressive driving...

I don't wish to go through that again anytime soon. Hurricanes are best seen on the news from far away. It is not an adventure, it is 4 or 5 hours of extreme weather followed by a couple of weeks of suck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128647
Looks like Ernesto will be 'interesting' over the next week or so. As I go back to workshops and then teaching next week, it'll be back to catching up in the evenings again for me.
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Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8896
This development here in the Bahamas could impact Ernesto's future down the road as ncstorm said. Things might get very interesting over the coming days as the Euro has this Bahamas disturbance stronger and larger than Ernesto come Sunday.


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Lots of dry air still in front of it, but so far so good:

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Ernesto really starting to wrap up suddenly and get more clouds on sat:
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting AussieStorm:

Have you actually thought, maybe it can't be seen on Satellite loop/image???



It is, its just very hard to find.
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I hope Ernesto gets strong enough to miss us we have had alot of rain already this year i,m tired of the mud and wet shoes.
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Quoting DataNerd:



I don't honestly know what they are seeing. But there is no eye.


There is not even a mid level circulation hardly at this point.


If this continues it will be dead by noon.


Sorry, I'll trust hurricane hunters and dr masters over you.... maybe you should try to figure out what they are seeing instead of going wacky and assuming you know more than the professionals?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
Quoting 7544:


agree on that and if i remember the ngps showed this yesterday as a trop storm over south fl on the 6th not too far away could be right this time seems to be ganing more convection to the sw at this hour but could it wind up enough to be tagged before moving over land time will tell either way it going to rainy week end over so fl
..any of the models showing a track for this yet?
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Finally found the bugger. Northern periphery near the the new t storms in the last frame of the rgb loop.
Link

Sheesh that is pretty obscure.



I need a break from this storm, its beginning to feel like a roller coaster.
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Thanks Dr Masters. While I don't think (for now) Ernesto will be a South Florida storm I will keep monitoring the situation. I am, however closely monitoring that AOI in the Bahamas. It will be a wind, rain and lightening maker for me.
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Quoting DataNerd:



I zoomed on the RGB loop and I want to see what you guys are talking about.



Coordinates of where your seeing it?


How about trusting HH and what they are seeing with their eyes directly vs. Sat? More accurate 100% of the time.

But, hey, you go with sat obs from space vs. obs from 5000 ft.
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Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128647
Quoting DataNerd:



I am looking right at the thing on radar and sat I see no eye, only a vigorous LLC


I am not asking for vote or for anyone to care what I think I am simply stating I do not see this feature, which is why I asked specifically what coordinates are you seeing this at/is it supposed to be at?

If its there I would like to see it too.

Have you actually thought, maybe it can't be seen on Satellite loop/image???
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LATEST ramsdis visible shows new convection beginning to develop near the COC.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
67. 7544
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This area in the Bahamas actually is better organized than I thought. I must say I wasn't expecting that. Could 91L later today.





agree on that and if i remember the ngps showed this yesterday as a trop storm over south fl on the 6th not too far away could be right this time seems to be ganing more convection to the sw at this hour but could it wind up enough to be tagged before moving over land time will tell either way it going to rainy week end over so fl
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Ernesto is a rollin' on the daylight visible...looks ready to enter The Octagon.
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Could someone explain how the newest AOI off the se fl coast could move nw, (per the NHC) with all the high pressure over the state?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Blog moving at warp speed this morning, I see.

Not sure why people are debating real live information from the hunters. Pretty sure that's way better info than any of us have from eye-ing a satellite loop.





Yes of course they do but generally their observations square well with sat and radar. And in this case they don't. Aside from the new banding t storms on the northern side of the COC it looks worse then it did yesterday, winds are down as well.
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Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128647
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Read what it says. He doesn't say there is an eye he said recon reported beginning to build an eyewall. If you put up one wall do you have a house or just the beginning of a house ? Leave it to the experts.
The experts and bloggers with some darn sense are the only ones I'm listening to.
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Blog moving at warp speed this morning, I see.

Not sure why people are debating real live information from the hunters. Pretty sure that's way better info than any of us have from eye-ing a satellite loop.
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Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128647
Watching 90L seems that the reported center is lower than 12.3N actually.
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Quoting GetReal:


Eye beginning to form???

Ernesto is behaving atypically all around: strengthening in daytime, weakening at night, building an eye and long spiral bands while at TS status, hauling at 24mph.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.