Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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hey i have a question i've been whatching the storm and how do yall think invest 91L and ernesto will interact.
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Quoting hurricane23:
As of now EURO has been spot on with ernesto.


Oh yeah, right on spot with an open wave that Ernesto is currently NOT.
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5055. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting hurricane23:
As of now EURO has been spot on with ernesto.

Yes, because Ernesto is a weak area of vorticity right now, right?
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5052. Patrap

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


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5051. LargoFl
Quoting 7544:
o is south fl not going to get anything from 91L except the normal seabreeze stroms kikin in latter today or can we see a small blow up again latter this afternoon as we see yesterday tia
..nws says heavy rain, somewhat more than the usual afternoon storms and its a two day event until it gets into the gulf..2-3 inches of rain or more depending on how slow it moves across the state
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think I'm going to take a break from WU today, it's clear this is going to be like Emily and everyone is going to moan disappointment. See ya.

It looks better then Emily to tell the truth..
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
5049. GetReal


I believe that I have possibly found the reason that the GFDL and HWRF models have consistently wanted to turn Ernesto north. The WV loop indicates that the culprit is the UL low currently in the E. GOM that is sinking SW, and turning the flow in front of Ernesto from the NW Caribbean towards the northern GOM, and also the weakening of the Bermuda ridge.
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As of now EURO has been spot on with ernesto.
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5047. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:44Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 23

13:45:00Z 13.833N 68.850W 843.0 mb

(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,566 meters
(~ 5,138 feet) 1009.5 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 273° at 8 knots
(From the W at ~ 9.2 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 9.4°C
(~ 48.9°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 25.8 knots (~ 29.6 mph)
322.2%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 13:35:30Z (first observation), the observation was 334 miles (538 km) to the S (172°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

At 13:45:00Z (last observation), the observation was 329 miles (529 km) to the SSE (168°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
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I am enjoying all the disagreement on the future track of TS Ernesto. Just to far out for anybody to get real excited. I have been through many storms and it is always the unexpected that comes into play. My meteorology degree came from a one night stay at the local Holiday Inn. Based on that I am seeing a S.TX / N. Mexico scenario. I would not want to be on a cruise ship at Cozumel in 3 days.
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Recon findings despite the sat presentation show ernesto barely hanging on to TS intensity.
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5043. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks

Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

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Quoting Patrap:
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters
For the record, it did reach 113 in OKC yesterday, tying the all-time highest temperature there.

hot
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I think I'm going to take a break from WU today, it's clear this is going to be like Emily and everyone is going to moan disappointment. See ya.
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Ernesto is getting in dry air. However its only temporarly and he should get going once he mixes it out
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5038. keisa90
HH rounding the bend and heading back to the center. Should get a good sampling of the NE quadrant after that.
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5037. 7544
o is south fl not going to get anything from 91L except the normal seabreeze stroms kikin in latter today or can we see a small blow up again latter this afternoon as we see yesterday tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
good news!! Ernesto has weakened winds down to 50 mph at 11am and maybe down to a tropical wave tonight!!



If Ernesto isn't an open wave tonight. Will you leave the blog????
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Come on ppl be realistic and quit relying so much in computer models. They are a great tool, but not a definite way to predict trajectory. With 91L weakening the ridge and a Hurricane strong enough to pick it up, don't you all think that Ernesto has a great chance of moving toward the Gulf Coast? I will not quit keeping an eye on this system until there is a consensus on both the statistical which I have not alot of confidence in and the Dynamical models which I trust more. If there was so much confidence on the mexico impact, don't you think the NHC would have adjusted their cone to indicate that?
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
good news!! Ernesto has weakened winds down to 50 mph at 11am and maybe down to a tropical wave tonight!!

Doubt that it will disintegrate into a tw
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
The EURO has done a HORRIBLE job so far this year...
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Give Ernesto time, I suspect whenever Ernesto gets south of Jamaica is when intensification will happen. Needs to get out of the killer of tropical storm zone, aka the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting TXCWC:
To say this is going to the U.S. Gulf Coast OR Mexico IS PREMATURE to say - latest model guidance shows the real possibility FOR EITHER scenario

i so agree sunday mabee monday a much clearer picture
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5029. Gorty
Is TD 6 a TS now?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


He said they were trying to make their forecast right....But how are republicans anti government and anti-NHC?


Totally off topic so lets not delve too deep into this.... but pretty much all republicans are pro smaller government (some could take that as anti-govt).... and many seem to be anti-science (just look at my home state... who recently voted to IGNORE scientific data showing sea level rise), denying GW at this point is pretty much anti-science any (logical) way you look at it
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
5027. jpsb
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
good news!! Ernesto has weakened winds down to 50 mph at 11am and maybe down to a tropical wave tonight!!
Great news for us on the upper Texas coast. Hope that is exactly what happens. I will hold off for a day or two on buying plywood. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A majority of those models are statistical models, while the ones I posted were the more reliable models. And you can through the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and CMC out on this storm...they've all been wrong.


How can you say you can "through" out the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and CMC? That leaves only the GFDL and HWRF. The globals are split against the storm specific models and I don't think anything can be thrown out just yet. Certainly not ALL of the global models. The battle between the storm specifics and globals will end in agreement among them. When that happens, we will know which ones were right. But imho, it is naive to say "throw out all the globals"
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5024. LargoFl
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
good news!! Ernesto has weakened winds down to 50 mph at 11am and maybe down to a tropical wave tonight!!
...that would be the best news if it did in fact fall apart...wherever this went it would hurt people
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
No reason to get excited. The plane is finding that Ernesto is barely a TS, despite its appearance on satellite. Surface obs (buoy to the north) and recon don't lie. Satellite can be VERY deceiving when trying to estimate surface conditions in the tropics. Clearly, Ernesto is struggling as the models had forecast. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking.
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5022. TXCWC
To say this is going to the U.S. Gulf Coast OR Mexico IS PREMATURE to say - latest model guidance shows the real possibility FOR EITHER scenario

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A majority of those models are statistical models, while the ones I posted were the more reliable dynamical models. And you can through the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and CMC out on this storm...they've all been wrong.

A stronger storm will go more poleward. The NHC forecast doesn't factor in the fact that Ernesto could RI at any time in the NW Caribbean, meaning it would move more north.


Adrian is also not factoring in the remnants of 91L (more troughiness/weakness)
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5020. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
5004...GeorgiaStormz... same reason I don't watch MSNBC.
yeah get your weather info from fox
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5017. Gorty
He is like Felix of 2007, too close to South America right now to get banding on the southern side.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Only 2 models still (TRENDING) north GFDL and HWRF. Last run from the euro decouples the low/mid level circulations which has me wondering but based on sat trends its looking rather unlikely. As of now iam leaning towards the trof not being strong enough.

A majority of those models are statistical models, while the ones I posted were the more reliable dynamical models. And you can through the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and CMC out on this storm...they've all been wrong.

A stronger storm will go more poleward. The NHC forecast doesn't factor in the fact that Ernesto could RI at any time in the NW Caribbean, meaning it would move more north.
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Quoting biloxibob:
Camille was named after John Hope's daughter. RI occured just south of Jamaica.


And JH (RIP) has been gone 10 years this summer...
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Ernesto has not weakened. dry air is affect him but he still looks GREAT. not buying the weakining
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
AL, 05, 2012080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 679W, 45, 1006, TS,

ATCF weakens Ernesto to 50 mph


Recon is only finding a moderate ts. I still think it will eventually get its act together.
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Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Ouch.

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Quoting LargoFl:
...............................................me anwhile the big event This weekend is the deluge of rain and wind and lightning that is going to hit and cross over florida these next 2 whole days..flooding is going to be a big issue i think....and hopefully 91L will not build into a tropical depression when it hits the gulfstream
We got pretty much 48 hrs of rain from this... and quite a bit of lightning, too. Agree on the TD...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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