Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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I agree
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06z HWRF shoots the gap:

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155. SpFox
Ernesto is definetly trying to build an eyewall

Link
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90L and the Bahama Blob look better than Ernesto right now.
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Quoting DataNerd:
I still don't see this mythical eye.

It was visible on Barbados radar earlier today. Things change.
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Sorry if this has been posted already...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
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Ummm who was wishcasting?.All I see is good discussion with a few trolls in between...
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We are tracking One Tropical Storm and one Invest in the Atlantic Now.

The Entity off the Fla East coast is NOT a invest at this time.


Currently Active Tropical Cyclones

Atlantic

AL052012 - Tropical Storm ERNESTO
AL902012 - INVEST
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting 19N81W:


Listen to what in Cayman? our best source is the NHC and you guys....my concern is its speed and a potential 24 hr rapid intensification south of Jamaica....and with that impending NW turn..


Unless it slows down, can't imagine any RI.

Just in my experience, storms have trouble intensifying when they are moving that fast.

Anyone else that can remember a storm really intensifying when moving 20mph+ is welcomed, but I can't think of any.
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Quoting DataNerd:
Finally found the bugger. Northern periphery near the the new t storms in the last frame of the rgb loop.
Link

Sheesh that is pretty obscure.



I need a break from this storm, its beginning to feel like a roller coaster.


SO is it safe to say that you still don't think that it'll turn into a open wave and dissipate by noon, like you said in the last blog?
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Maybe i should get a met degree and outsource to Cayman islands...or anywhere else without a good huricane center
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting DataNerd:



Call me an "el nino" wisher then, I had my fingers crossed.

Again having been through Ike 4 years ago and only recently having finished dealing with that from a business perspective I have no desire to have another major event. A rainy TS or Cat 1 is fine but no carribean monsters thank you.


Anyway seems you guys were right, its taken too long to develop and the High pressure situation is disrupting the trade winds anyway.
I with you. I had no problem with Nino coming to us. It may help somethings and wreak havoc on others when it arrives in full.
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as a side note i see oil is up $2. They believe its going to the gulf.i really hate speculators making money on theses storms
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Quoting LargoFl:
..we will see in a few days,someone said earlier it crosses florida then goes back into the atlantic..we'll see what happens next week


Next week?!? The thing is really close to the US mainland already... is it really moving that slowly? I thought it'd be hitting either Florida, NC, or going out to sea by next week... or is this one just a reeaally slow mover?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
Quoting 19N81W:


Listen to what in Cayman? our best source is the NHC and you guys....my concern is its speed and a potential 24 hr rapid intensification south of Jamaica....and with that impending NW turn..


Well, listen in here, follow the NHC, the Storm is being well tracked by the HH every 6 Hours now.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
06z GFDL shifted a tad bit west:

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Quoting Patrap:


Listen to your Local info on Ernesto, as they are your best info along with the NHC.


Listen to what in Cayman? our best source is the NHC and you guys....my concern is its speed and a potential 24 hr rapid intensification south of Jamaica....and with that impending NW turn..
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Dr. Masters entry above has all the current relevant forecast info.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
So is this Bahama wave supposed to cross Florida into the northern Gulf? I thought models (the few that developed it) had been showing it riding up the Atlantic coast the past few days...
..we will see in a few days,someone said earlier it crosses florida then goes back into the atlantic..we'll see what happens next week
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Quoting pmzqqzmp:


I agree 100%. I hope you are spared.

As a Miami resident, and Andrew survivor, I know all to well the destruction, horror, heartache and misery caused by these monsters. Seeing the "wishcasting" on here always makes my blood boil.

I come here to see relevant discussion about what may or may not occur and whether or not my property & life could be in danger.

But many posters here it seems are only interested in seeing how strong and how much destruction and hurt these storms can do. They taunt and then pooh-pooh anyone that comes here for REAL reasons.

For those that want to wishcast, please keep your joy at seeing these monsters to a minimum.


I'm sorry but you really are generalizing a very select few members of the blog as the entire mindset of "many". Do you honestly think we want people to loose their homes and lives? Do you really think that's what we want when we say 'models might be trending more towards the Gulf', or 'system appears to be intensifying', or how about 'the models are showing favorable conditions in the Caribbean beyond this point', because if that's wishcasting I've been doing it for 7 years. I know what it's like to be through a hurricane too, I wasn't in anything as strong as Andrew but I went through a LOT in a 3 year period, being unlucky to move to move from Virginia in 2004 after Isabel to Central Florida. I certainly don't want it, people who went through storms such as Andrew, Katrina, Ike and Irene don't want it either but we really can't stop them. Mother nature doesn't care what we say, never has never will.
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CSU updated their numbers for this hurricane season, calling for a total of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 99. The probability for a major hurricane landfall across the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast is only very slightly below average.
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just wondering, what makes you say that?
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The New Atlantic Invest


AL902012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Would one of the learned posters mind discussing the conditions, at this point in the season, that would either inhibit or promote a N or NE recurve should Ernesto reach the GOM?

Thanks,
EcoLogic
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So, I'm assuming the GFS is an outlier model on Ernesto? Looks that way..
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
90L!!


Looks sheared to me
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Quoting hydrus:
Some of us have said for months that El-Nino effects will not arrive in time to slow cyclone development this year.


Unfortunately, comments about the time delay of el nino's effects also take months to sink in, and won't arrive in time for discussions of cyclone development this year. ;)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I get some shut eye and comeback to an orange circle and a yellow circle, in addition to Ernesto.
..morning GT..we in florida need to really watch that yellow circle..its coming over us
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Quoting Patrap:
AL902012 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Any new coordinates?
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One can tell that August has started. :)

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Already thunderstorms in West Palm Beach...

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Quoting Methurricanes:
Ernesto is a small storm.

Small compared to what 45 mph TS? Seems nicely sized to me.
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I get some shut eye and comeback to an orange circle and a yellow circle, in addition to Ernesto.
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Ernest goes to Florida.
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So is this Bahama wave supposed to cross Florida into the northern Gulf? I thought models (the few that developed it) had been showing it riding up the Atlantic coast the past few days...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
Ernesto is a small storm.
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Quoting 19N81W:
ok folks I was hoping Ernesto would be done by today...is this really a serious threat to Cayman? I really dont want to have to evacuate next week....


Listen to your Local info on Ernesto, as they are your best info along with the NHC.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279


Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
ok folks I was hoping Ernesto would be done by today...is this really a serious threat to Cayman? I really dont want to have to evacuate next week....
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This development here in the Bahamas could impact Ernesto's future down the road as ncstorm said. Things might get very interesting over the coming days as the Euro has this Bahamas disturbance stronger and larger than Ernesto come Sunday.




I will say I must have to respectfully disagree that with conditions in the W Caribbean Ernesto will likely bomb out there and then do it again in the S gulf. If it doesn't bomb out, then it will strengthen quickly.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

even on that loop I can't see the eyewall. But I trust the HH crew cause they are seeing it with their own eyes.



I can see what they referenced. But it was very obscure.


And because of the shoddy appearance in the earlier loop I was very skeptical of how something like that could be present at all.


I was wrong move on, it was my opinion not yours so I don't see why you should be worried.

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.........................GFS at 144 hours
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110. 7544
nam eruo and the nogaps all form the bamama wave now ?no gaps win it was first lol
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90L!!
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Quoting uptxcoast:
Nothing more fun than cutting up tree limbs, standing in line at Home Depot trying to get some quickcrete, digging Fence post holes with no AC and a cold shower if you are lucky. (Actually it is kind of like being in the Army out in the field)

All that and trying to get to work.

Amazingly enough After Hurricane Ike, Houston Drivers became some of the most polite drivers I had ever seen, stopping at all the non working traffic lights and treating them like a 4-way stop. As soon as everything was somewhat back to normal, everyone resumed the normal hostile/aggressive driving...

I don't wish to go through that again anytime soon. Hurricanes are best seen on the news from far away. It is not an adventure, it is 4 or 5 hours of extreme weather followed by a couple of weeks of suck.


BINGO ! Thank you.

Wishcasters please read this post and be more sensitive when you post.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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