Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 207 - 157

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like a low is organizing south of Nassau. Very interesting as this has come out of no where. However the Euro I have noticed for several days has been developing this wave in the Bahamas this weekend and traveling over FL. If this system developes then what happens to Ernesto? That could be a good question come tomorrow and Sunday.


Unfortunately, that would probably create MORE questions and uncertainty than it would provide answers. Not what we need with a hurricane potentially entering the Gulf
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
If one dislikes a particular bloggers post, just enjoy the ignore feature.

Its dat EZ.

Thanks for the reminder Pat. My list just made it to 150 with the honor going to 'Jeff9645' :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
204. yoboi
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


3 HH Flights in just over 24 hours on a TS thats gonna be over water harming only shipping,Does that seem a bit unusual? NHC know something they not sharing? Just seems odd. Please correct me if Im wrong!



ya can't HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
This trough on the Canada/Montana border will likely be a factor with the future path of Ernesto.
..gee that thing off east florida is starting to look scary
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Not sure about that, however, keep in mind the models this far out are not gospel and usually very inaccurate, but the way things are now that High in the Atlantic is not budging.




I wonder, do the fish enjoy their storms?



?

Do not discount the opinion of the fish it is essential ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
This trough on the Canada/Montana border will likely be a factor with the future path of Ernesto.
Hydrus I would like to hear your thoughts...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmm there is really a small spot of convection developing on the SE side of the eyewall
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10903
Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! OK. I seriously doubt that.

It was reported on recon, stated by Dr. Masters, and is visible in radar and microwave imagery. What the heck else do you need?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
new.invest.likely....bahamas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve





2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! OK. I seriously doubt that.


For a person who went to met school, you sure don't do any research. Step 1, read Dr. Masters entry for easy to find information. Step 2, research hurricane hunter data. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
175... looks like a fish storm.
Not sure about that, however, keep in mind the models this far out are not gospel and usually very inaccurate, but the way things are now that High in the Atlantic is not budging.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Digital Dvorak Intensity Estimates

Using the infrared (IR) images collected as part of the CIRA tropical cyclone IR image archive, which are displayed in an earth relative format as a product on this web page. Center positions are extrapolated using the current position and the past 12-h mean motion vector. Tropical cyclone intensity estimates can be made using two temperatures derived from the IR imagery. The first is the warmest pixel in the eye, and second is the warmest pixel on the coldest circle between 24 and 111 km from the cyclone center. Using these values a Raw T-number can be created by using the locally developed Table That expands upon the table published in Dvorak (1984). Each T-number has an intensity, in terms of maximum 1-minute sustained winds, associated with it and can be converted to an intensity.

While Raw T-numbers give an estimate of how strong a given storm is, the quantity is noisy, and because it is an instantaneous measure does not properly account for the relatively slow decay process of tropical cyclone winds. To remove the noisy nature of the Raw T-numbers time averaging is employed to produce a 6-h running mean of the raw T-numbers. This 6-h running mean is considered the T-number associated with the current intensity if the 6-h running mean is not decreasing at more than 1.5 T-numbers per day. If the 6-h running mean is decreasing very rapidly, a maximum of 1.5 T-number per day decay rate is prescribed. This final value of the 6-h running mean with a decay rule applied is considered the current intensity number or CI. The CI, as with any T-number estimate, can be converted into a intensity. However, it is important to note that THIS TECHNIQUE IS ONLY VALID FOR STORMS OF HURRICANE INTENSITY (65 kt) OR GREATER.

The image shown on this web page shows the time series of warning intensity and the Digital Dvorak estimate of intensity at the top and the time series of raw T-number estimates, the 6-h running mean, and the CI at the bottom.
Dvorak, V., 1984: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data.NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 11, 47 pp. [Available from NOAA/NESDIS, 5200 Auth Rd. Washington DC, 20233].
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
That large tropical wave that crossed S FL a couple of weeks ago looks better than Ernesto. Almost appears to be opening up.



Systems that have "building eye walls" are not opening up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Its also starting to spin/wrap up quickly, here is microwave:





When all else fails, microwave imagery :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This trough on the Canada/Montana border will likely be a factor with the future path of Ernesto.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's building an eyewall...


LOL! OK. I seriously doubt that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's building an eyewall...


Its also starting to spin/wrap up quickly, here is microwave:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Sorry if this has been posted already...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70- FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z C. 04/2200Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


3 HH Flights in just over 24 hours on a TS thats gonna be over water harming only shipping,Does that seem a bit unusual? NHC know something they not sharing? Just seems odd. Please correct me if Im wrong!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting uptxcoast:
Nothing more fun than cutting up tree limbs, standing in line at Home Depot trying to get some quickcrete, digging Fence post holes with no AC and a cold shower if you are lucky. (Actually it is kind of like being in the Army out in the field)

All that and trying to get to work.

Amazingly enough After Hurricane Ike, Houston Drivers became some of the most polite drivers I had ever seen, stopping at all the non working traffic lights and treating them like a 4-way stop. As soon as everything was somewhat back to normal, everyone resumed the normal hostile/aggressive driving...

I don't wish to go through that again anytime soon. Hurricanes are best seen on the news from far away. It is not an adventure, it is 4 or 5 hours of extreme weather followed by a couple of weeks of suck.


For the first half week after Ike the commute from Katy to the Medical Center was absolutely brutal. I'm wanting to say my normal 45 minute to 1 hour commute was well over 2 hours, due primarily to two major intersections having their lights out (West Loop at Old Katy being one of them). And that was 30-40 miles west of where the eye tracked.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
06z GFS out to 216 hrs, Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampico, south of Brownsville and a new system forming off of Cape Verde.



Run the loop and look at where that Cape Verde system goes. Yikes!! Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Is Digital Dvorak tmax the estimated windspeed using satellite?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
interesting you bring these numbers up especially about CSU predicting 14 storms. Maybe it is a coincidence but in 2004 we had 14 storms also. That too in an upcoming el nino season. We all remember the pattern back then. Lots of talk about this season possibly mirroring the 2004 season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
That large tropical wave that crossed S FL a couple of weeks ago looks better than Ernesto. Almost appears to be opening up.


It's building an eyewall...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Not really. What is the point of having HH if people are going to knowingly ignore/discount the information provided... instead relying on their own naked and not professional eye?

To give him credit, he later asked where the coordinates were that everyones seeing this eye wall formation, so I jumped the gun on my critique. But he should've simply asked where the first time instead of implying the HH and Dr. Masters were simply wrong because he didn't see what they see...

Down casters--just wish casting in reverse. Business as usual on the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
06z GFS out to 216 hrs, Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampico, south of Brownsville and a new system forming off of Cape Verde.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Listen to your Local info on Ernesto, as they are your best info along with the NHC.




Okay this.


This right here is should be emblazoned in large letters and stickied to the top of each comment section for this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That large tropical wave that crossed S FL a couple of weeks ago looks better than Ernesto. Almost appears to be opening up.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like a low is organizing south of Nassau. Very interesting as this has come out of no where. However the Euro I have noticed for several days has been developing this wave in the Bahamas this weekend and traveling over FL. If this system developes then what happens to Ernesto? That could be a good question come tomorrow and Sunday.
would be nice if it becomes a week storm and parks in the gulf churning and cooling the surface before Ernesto gets there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If one dislikes a particular bloggers post, just enjoy the ignore feature.

Its dat EZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..morning GT..we in florida need to really watch that yellow circle..its coming over us
Looks like we're going to have an interesting weekend!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ummm who was wishcasting?.All I see is good discussion with a few trolls in between...


I'm talking about the past on this board. It can be quite disconcerting to those of us who live in areas vunerable to the danger these storms put us, our families and our property in.

The cheerleading just sometimes is just over the top.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is the best 'product' for wind shear forecasts? I'd like to see what conditions could be in place in the GOM if/when Ernesto arrives there.. TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Already thunderstorms in West Palm Beach...



Looks like a low is organizing south of Nassau. Very interesting as this has come out of no where. However the Euro I have noticed for several days has been developing this wave in the Bahamas this weekend and traveling over FL. If this system developes then what happens to Ernesto? That could be a good question come tomorrow and Sunday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Feel free to use the wunderground Tropical/Hurricane page under the severe weather Tab at the top of this and every wu-page.

I get 90% of my info there.

Tropical Weather & Hurricanes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Maybe i should get a met degree and outsource to Cayman islands...or anywhere else without a good huricane center


well to be fair some of the guys in the met office give pretty good forecasts and know their stuff...problem is we never hear from them...the information they get out is usually from the nhc...its always good to have other opinions given where we are in the heat content area these storms have a habit of blowing up around us...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:
As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.


Well said, Jason! My thoughts exactly.

Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The New Atlantic Invest


AL902012

All three of our systems are doing very well in a supposed down MJO cycle. That was the case 3 weeks ago in the GOM with Debby and that anti-cyclone that wound up bringing a system to TX. Pretty much everything that can develop has or is, with no antagonist features tearing them apart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 207 - 157

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.