Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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tight.circulation.shown.on.twc
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Good morning guys,
FORT COLLINS - The Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Team slightly increased its overall seasonal forecast today, while still calling for a slightly below-average remainder of the season due to the likely development of El Nino.
The team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray are now predicting a total of 14 named storms with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. In June, the team had predicted 13 named storms with five of the 13 expected to become hurricanes and two of those expected to become major hurricanes.
The 14 named storms and six hurricanes in the latest forecast includes the four named storms and one hurricane that formed in May and June.
“We have increased our seasonal forecast from early April and early June, due to a combination of uncertainty in El Nino as well as slightly more favorable tropical Atlantic conditions,” Klotzbach said
. “Still, the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2012 season is estimated to be slightly below its long-period average.”

For the remainder of the season, Klotzbach also recalculated probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast after July 31:
• A 48 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline (full-season average for the last century is 52 percent)
A 28 percent chance for the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (full-season average for the last century is 31 percent).
A 28 percent chance for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (full-season average for the last century is 30 percent).
The probability for at least one major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean is 39 percent (full-season average for the last century is 42 percent).
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
LGEM takes Ernie to 105 knots in 100 hrs seems.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting Patrap:
Our?

Lordy, LoL



Some of us are very possessive, down here in Florida.
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People who debate hurricane hunter data remind me of small children when you tell them the stove is hot and not to touch it. Just because they can't see it and don't believe it, they have to touch it and feel it to believe. Well, the HH have said so, but still some don't believe. Hope ya like a burned hand.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


3 HH Flights in just over 24 hours on a TS thats gonna be over water harming only shipping,Does that seem a bit unusual? NHC know something they not sharing? Just seems odd. Please correct me if Im wrong!

It's affecting land right now!
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that might make sense if at that time down the road the high pressure is weaker due to a trough. scary to think if the High is strong at that time steering it w or wnw
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Morning everyone, Ernesto still doesn't look bad and he will only strengthen from here till landfall. I will have to leave soon since I'm getting braces.
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
80kts in 120 hours. Not bad.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Forecast to hit the northern Yucatan.
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A trough of Low Pressure is not a Storm..

Itsa trough of Low Pressure.

RE-lax, let Focus on what is currently.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
245. yoboi
Quoting DataNerd:



No man they are going to send us all to mars its true dude.


Ofc I am joking.



lol...if this storm gets into the gom some people on here will go nuts....
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I like you ST2K but you sound foolish right now.Ernesto is organizing in both appearance and structure and IS developing an eye wall even though right now it's a 45mph storm.Expect to see some steady strengthening.
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Quoting Patrap:
I WUnder if we will see Dr. Masters on TWC if things get dicey with Ernesto downstream?



one would think so ...............
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Quoting hydrus:
Would not be surprised if something decided to spin up there.
That's right on top of the Bahamas, I wonder if BahaHurican is aware, at the very least he must be getting a lot of rain and wind.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Up to 50 mph as expected.
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Our?

Lordy, LoL

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY THE
APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 62.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 62.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 71.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Quoting hydrus:
Would not be surprised if something decided to spin up there.
................I do hope south florida and gee central florida folks are watching this now..this is OUR storm..local mets have been saying all week..this wave is crossing florida
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
234. 7544
anyone have a feeling the hh may relocate ernesto further north latter on today
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Hope all of our friends down in the islands came thru ok this morning. I know 40-70mph doesn't seem too bad,but it can definetly cause damage and injury. Again hope all are well down there.
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Quoting pmzqqzmp:


I'm talking about the past on this board. It can be quite disconcerting to those of us who live in areas vunerable to the danger these storms put us, our families and our property in.

The cheerleading just sometimes is just over the top.

Don't rely on the comments section of this blog for information when it comes to protecting your property, life or limb.
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Quoting LargoFl:
................................................. ......someone this week posted a 374 hour GFS with a hurricane off the midlantic coast.....this track is the future Florence just off africa now


this isnt the hurricane...its a wave behind this, at least it appears to be.
This my just be the thief to steal the name florence
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was reported on recon, stated by Dr. Masters, and is visible in radar and microwave imagery. What the heck else do you need?
I don't know why he is denying facts and saying Ernesto is opening up but there is really no factual evidence for any of those claims if anything it shows the opposite.
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Quoting yoboi:


do ya really think the NHC has a secret mission??? please tell me ya joking



No man they are going to send us all to mars its true dude.


Ofc I am joking.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you can see how the bright area passed over barbados and they were the only ones with TS winds...


...WIND GUST TO 63 MPH IN SAINT LUCIA AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NEARBY... From 8AM advisory. 63 mph gust likely has TS winds sustained if not in small T-Storm
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, pretty much... How can we doubt them, they're there, we're not... What they says goes because what they say is right.



I would submit that if we are still on this subject its a waste of time.


It has an eyewall feature in the northern quadrant which can be seen on Microwave imagery. My first impressions of the storm this morning were that it was opening up, so I was skeptical of this, but ofc I did not think to check the microwave imagery first.

My fault.
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225. yoboi
Quoting DataNerd:



I need my tinfoil hat. I appear to have lost it. Anyone got a spare?


do ya really think the NHC has a secret mission??? please tell me ya joking
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I WUnder if we will see Dr. Masters on TWC if things get dicey with Ernesto downstream?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting LargoFl:
..gee that thing off east florida is starting to look scary
Would not be surprised if something decided to spin up there.
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Quoting DataNerd:



I need my tinfoil hat. I appear to have lost it. Anyone got a spare?


Do Hershey Kisses wrapper count?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Eyewall on a 45mph TS. Come on guys your getting ahead of yourselves here. Once he gets into the NW Caribbean then we will have something but for now expect him to stay the same for maybe 36 to 48hrs.



See, that's the problem. I'M not coming up with that data, neither is anyone else on this blog. It's live hurricane hunter data. Period. End of discussion.
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Quoting DataNerd:





When all else fails, microwave imagery :)


you can see how the bright area passed over barbados and they were the only ones with TS winds...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


3 HH Flights in just over 24 hours on a TS thats gonna be over water harming only shipping,Does that seem a bit unusual? NHC know something they not sharing? Just seems odd. Please correct me if Im wrong!


What storm will only be harming shipping? Ernesto WILL make landfall somewhere and the Florida thing will hit Florida. No fish storms today. (90l is affecting the CV Islands)
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


3 HH Flights in just over 24 hours on a TS thats gonna be over water harming only shipping,Does that seem a bit unusual? NHC know something they not sharing? Just seems odd. Please correct me if Im wrong!

It means they're trying to ascertain the best angle of HAARP approach
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Quoting rushisaband:
things are ramping up a bit. ernesto still has some obstacles to cross, but definitely holding his own.

mornin pat ... still bummed out about HURLOMAN :)
any morning boomers over there?


Not yet, have a cirrus canopy though from some last night and this Am though.

Anything helps.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
216. yoboi
Quoting angiest:


For the first half week after Ike the commute from Katy to the Medical Center was absolutely brutal. I'm wanting to say my normal 45 minute to 1 hour commute was well over 2 hours, due primarily to two major intersections having their lights out (West Loop at Old Katy being one of them). And that was 30-40 miles west of where the eye tracked.


just part of going thru a storm....
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Quoting DataNerd:



I wonder, do the fish enjoy their storms?



?
I sure hope they do or at least have got used to it since these storms spend most of their lives out in the open.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Pocamocca:

And they have never been wrong? Ever?

Yeah, pretty much... How can we doubt them, they're there, we're not... What they says goes because what they say is right.
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................................................. ......someone this week posted a 374 hour GFS with a hurricane off the midlantic coast.....this track is the future Florence just off africa now
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Quoting yoboi:



ya can't HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!!



I need my tinfoil hat. I appear to have lost it. Anyone got a spare?
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Quoting RickWPB:

Thanks for the reminder Pat. My list just made it to 150 with the honor going to 'Jeff9645' :-)



The server has tons of RAM for those lists.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
things are ramping up a bit. ernesto still has some obstacles to cross, but definitely holding his own.

mornin pat ... still bummed out about HURLOMAN :)
any morning boomers over there?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


For a person who went to met school, you sure don't do any research. Step 1, read Dr. Masters entry for easy to find information. Step 2, research hurricane hunter data. :-)


Eyewall on a 45mph TS. Come on guys your getting ahead of yourselves here. Once he gets into the NW Caribbean then we will have something but for now expect him to stay the same for maybe 36 to 48hrs.

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


3 HH Flights in just over 24 hours on a TS thats gonna be over water harming only shipping,Does that seem a bit unusual? NHC know something they not sharing? Just seems odd. Please correct me if Im wrong!

Not odd at all. the NOAA overall has been working very hard to understand cyclogenesis, and flying frequently into storms in their formative stages is key to enhancing that understanding. Ernesto is in a perfect spot and situation for the NOAA to get LOADS of data they can pore through in the offseason to understand cyclogenesis. These flights are as much about research as they are about cyclogenesis. I wouldn't be shocked to see a G-IV flying soon.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like a low is organizing south of Nassau. Very interesting as this has come out of no where. However the Euro I have noticed for several days has been developing this wave in the Bahamas this weekend and traveling over FL. If this system developes then what happens to Ernesto? That could be a good question come tomorrow and Sunday.


Unfortunately, that would probably create MORE questions and uncertainty than it would provide answers. Not what we need with a hurricane potentially entering the Gulf
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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