Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting washingtonian115:
If it continues to move sst the current pace it won't have much time to take advantage of those.
It will slow down once it reaches the Western Caribbean, something about build up of heat causes tropical waves to stack up there. I agree it is moving fast though, in other words cruising along.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Run the loop and look at where that Cape Verde system goes. Yikes!! Link
Worst than that. The wave goes noth of the CV islands which we all know was not true. So again. This one could be worst.
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Umm, what the heck is with the 101 mph SFMR reading?
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Quoting Barbados:
I wonder where the 43mph sustained in Barbados was. I don't think the wind ever got over 15mph. Very little rain overnight. We are only now getting a few gusts and some rain. 1 inch so far.


Grantley Adams
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Quoting 7544:


yeap but is going to west or nnw does it have time to spin up as the models show it crossing so fl on the 5th is it supoose to sit there for 2 more days tia its closer to home so eyes are on this one for now
..yes its going to be a guessing game for a few days, we will see by saturday i guess..even if it doesnt develop..its a rain maker...been watching this wave all week long now since it was over PR..and it never died off..something to watch for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36854
Quoting MississippiWx:


What is your point?


the point is what is bolded...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Pretty impressive to see such a tenacious System, a CV Low Runner this in tact moving into the Carb.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
Quoting MississippiWx:
NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.


Yeah, about that...

If it continues to move sst the current pace it won't have much time to take advantage of those.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like Avila isn't too impressed with the current structure of Ernesto:

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.


well he says steering weakens and it slows down.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
We are seeing now, Ernesto's best convective Bursts.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
Not much to add to Dr. M's comments except to say that we may be looking at a significant hurricane entering the Gulf next week if the hurricane status South of Jamaica/Cuba/Caiman comes to pass. Today is a great day to keep a close eye on the high-res vis loops on Ernesto for signs of a tilted system due do his speed, but it looks the process of vertical stacking has begun in earnest (pun intended).

As noted by the 200mb CIMSS chart below, there is a small Tutt cell lingering in front of Ernesto due south of PR/Hispanola which factors into the TS status and the next major Tutt/ULL cell is currently draped across Western Cuba/Yucatan channell. Assuming Ernesto reaches hurricane strength between 70 and 80W, that should not pose a significant problem for the storm further down the road.

Quite the early start for August.

Link
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
.


What is your point?
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Funny the NHC is with statisticals...
Funny most dynamicals are gap splitters too..
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
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ZOOM and Boxes are Active

Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.


Yeah, about that...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Vs.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Forecast to hit the northern Yucatan.
in the 80's i drove from nyc all the way down to mexico..then all the way across mexico to cancun..the yucatan is flat and tropical..nothing there to even slow it down, just some dry land to weaken it a touch
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36854


Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Davis weatherlink Page.
Link to weather Davis stations world wide.
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My landfall prediction is Marsh Island LA
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2293
Notice it's says "SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED CENTER",and I see Aliva is going the forecast.
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Morn Thel, the Laymens Voice of reason fer sho'

Ernie trying to build that warm column as you say Thel, should be a interesting build today me tinks.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
281. yoboi
hey pattrap what is the mayan countdown at today???
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Quoting MississippiWx:
People who debate hurricane hunter data remind me of small children when you tell them the stove is hot and not to touch it. Just because they can't see it and don't believe it, they have to touch it and feel it to believe. Well, the HH have said so, but still some don't believe. Hope ya like a burned hand.


alright already I was wrong as I wnet to my other computer and ran the java loops as I can't on my lap top right and yes you are right it does look pretty good. Earlier it didn't look good at all but it still has a long way to go and don't expect much from this until it can get out of the eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting hydrus:
This trough on the Canada/Montana border will likely be a factor with the future path of Ernesto.


Yep It has that deep digging look to it...also of interest is the apparent weakening of the big Upper
Level High over the Central Conus...
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Looks like Avila isn't too impressed with the current structure of Ernesto:

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
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The water is warm,
but it's sending me shivers.
A baby is born,
crying out for attention.
Memories fade,
like looking through a fogged mirror
Decision to decisions are made and not bought
But I thought,
this wouldn't hurt a lot.
I guess not.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Eyewall on a 45mph TS. Come on guys your getting ahead of yourselves here. Once he gets into the NW Caribbean then we will have something but for now expect him to stay the same for maybe 36 to 48hrs.



The Hurricane Hunters said that Ernesto was "starting" to build an eyewall....... they didn't say it was complete, or even half complete!

Do you think eyewall's just "suddenly" appear at a certain pressure or windspeed?
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Quoting Brock31:
90L and the Bahama Blob look better than Ernesto right now.


That bahama blob does look pretty large. Hopeing it brings some tropical wind waves here to south Florida!

Ernesto can stay away from FL tho. maybe do an Irene ;)
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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED
THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT
BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER
HURRICANE.

MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.7N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.0N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 18.5N 83.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31432
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31432
Quoting LargoFl:
................I do hope south florida and gee central florida folks are watching this now..this is OUR storm..local mets have been saying all week..this wave is crossing florida
not.so.sure.it.might.move.north
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4322
Hey aleast He slowed down slighty from 24 mph to 21 mph!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like a low is organizing south of Nassau. Very interesting as this has come out of no where. However the Euro I have noticed for several days has been developing this wave in the Bahamas this weekend and traveling over FL. If this system developes then what happens to Ernesto? That could be a good question come tomorrow and Sunday.


It is a good question now....anybody?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
People who debate hurricane hunter data remind me of small children when you tell them the stove is hot and not to touch it. Just because they can't see it and don't believe it, they have to touch it and feel it to believe. Well, the HH have said so, but still some don't believe. Hope ya like a burned hand.



i know what you mean ... yes it is ...no it isn't ..
yes it is .... no it isn't

i think i'll go with the HH and nhc stats
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266. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
................I do hope south florida and gee central florida folks are watching this now..this is OUR storm..local mets have been saying all week..this wave is crossing florida


yeap but is going to west or nnw does it have time to spin up as the models show it crossing so fl on the 5th is it supoose to sit there for 2 more days tia its closer to home so eyes are on this one for now
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
Not a surprise that Ernesto is a 50mph storm.Could have a(and don't listen to this)60mph storm when the day ends.
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Check this out...
This ain't good for Japan.



Click for loop.
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I wonder where the 43mph sustained in Barbados was. I don't think the wind ever got over 15mph. Very little rain overnight. We are only now getting a few gusts and some rain. 1 inch so far.
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Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
Quoting washingtonian115:
I like you ST2K but you sound foolish right now.Ernesto is organizing in both appearance and structure and IS developing an eye wall even though right now it's a 45mph storm.Expect to see some steady strengthening.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36854
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


...WIND GUST TO 63 MPH IN SAINT LUCIA AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NEARBY... From 8AM advisory. 63 mph gust likely has TS winds sustained if not in small T-Storm


it wasnt as sustained as barbados, much more gusty probably thunderstorm initiated more than anything...
It will be interesting to monitor microwave throughout the day and see how the eyewall comes along and if we can get a significant CDO
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tight.circulation.shown.on.twc
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4322

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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