Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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COC appears to be near 13.3N & 62.1W IMO
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Latest shear map:



The more north he goes, the stronger he will be.
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Quoting hydrus:
The CRAS model does spin up the Bahama wave into a rather large sub-tropical storm. Ernesto is moving at 20 kts, and may be in the vicinity of the Bahama low. Things get tricky from there on how they will interact. NAM in 30 hours.


is that a STS on the florida coast?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
354. 7544
hmm looks at that trof coming down could it catch ernesto at yucatan and pull a wilma track ?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I like you ST2K but you sound foolish right now.Ernesto is organizing in both appearance and structure and IS developing an eye wall even though right now it's a 45mph storm.Expect to see some steady strengthening.


One thing is for sure everything will be slow to develop until this storm nears Jamaica. Ernesto has had dry air issues from the get go, but it also had the ITCZ nursing it through those periods. It will be interesting to see how Ernesto manages the Eastern Caribbean without that.

Everything out beyond three days means little if anything if Ernesto opens up into a wave again. It seems to be mixing out the dry air right now. The storm is moving at over 20 kts. It's entering shear at a minimum of 20 knots and SAL is all around it, and it's entering the dead zone of the Caribbean. I doubt if it strengthens little if any the next 36 hours.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Not sure about that, however, keep in mind the models this far out are not gospel and usually very inaccurate, but the way things are now that High in the Atlantic is not budging.

The analog years that I've been researching, namely 1934 and 1985, suggest a shift west in the movements of the majority of tropical systems forming during these seasons. 1934 was the last time we saw this kind of record heat in the Midwest in early July, and 1985 was the last time we saw exceptional activity in the Eastern Pacific in early July.



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LGEM takes Ernie to 105knots in 100 hrs

Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
347. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Excerpt for the Miami NWS Disco...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
RIDGE AXIS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A WEAK UPPER
LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EARLY MORNING UPPER-AIR SOUNDING
AT MIAMI INDICATED THIS WITH PRIMARILY WNW WINDS ALOFT. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE BAHAMAS WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE REMAINING JUST
EAST OF THE AXIS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND GENERALLY INDICATES IT CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL LIKELY
SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THIS TIME SATURDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.


hmm interesting lets see what happens before it moves in
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Quoting Seastep:


Unless it slows down, can't imagine any RI.

Just in my experience, storms have trouble intensifying when they are moving that fast.

Anyone else that can remember a storm really intensifying when moving 20mph+ is welcomed, but I can't think of any.
How about Wilma. It was a fast mover, and I think as it came across the keys it intensified. But my memory is cloudy on that.
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345. Skyepony (Mod)


Quoting GTcooliebai:
I love passion fruit.

Harvest this year has been heavy. Taking some to market today. Saved some for home use of course. This week's drink has been Grand Marnier in Passion fruit. Cut the tops off add alcohol & stir:)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey I asked a question last night, about why the HWRF and GFDL only go out to 126 hrs.? I was wondering if you can shed some light on that.


Based on the NHC only issuing a forecast out 5 days. There are probably some experimental versions running longer since NHC is evaluating going out to 7 days.
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WTNT45 KNHC 031454
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED
THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT
BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER
HURRICANE.
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.

Hmmmmmmmmmm!

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333: Are u his buddy LOL!!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Read the post I said I wouldn't be surprised if it does.


And then calling people wishcasters who have proof to back up claims that go against your views.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
My NWS in wilmington, nc is finally talking about the tropical wave near the bahamas even though I have been talking about it way before now..

MODELS SHOWING A TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING INTO FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING UP THROUGH
THE OFF SHORE WATERS. CLOUDS AND PCP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL REACH AREA IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP
OVER 2.25 INCHES AS TROUGH PUSHES ON SHORE. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH ARRIVAL LATE SAT BUT NAM BRINGS IN ON SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER ON THE WHOLE
WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON
THIS MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY ON SHORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP WITH MAINLY MORE LOCALIZED DIURNAL CONVECTION FLARING
FARTHER INLAND AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALSO WILL
INCLUDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...BUT BASICALLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH READINGS
AROUND 90 MOST PLACES AND 70S OVERNIGHT.

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For one stop Tropical Links and other..

www.wunderground.com/tropical
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
Quoting MississippiWx:


Wow, you're becoming very much like a troll. Does it make me a "wishcaster" for giving you FACT? I do not think it is becoming a hurricane currently, but when you storm in here and make claims that it's opening into a wave when it's clearly not, don't expect to not receive any ridicule from it!! It's even worse when you don't do any research to back those claims first.


Read the post I said I wouldn't be surprised if it does.
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Quoting JNCali:
What is the best 'product' for wind shear forecasts? I'd like to see what conditions could be in place in the GOM if/when Ernesto arrives there.. TIA


I like GFS 500-200mb Zonal shear.

Other sources, but can get from FSU. Just change the "sea level pressure" dropdown to "500-200mb zonal shear."
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Quoting Skyepony:
Nice to see recon scheduled for the inverted trough off East FL tomorrow. I was discussing this last night. My Passion fruit is blooming mad & in mid summer that usually means we are in for a storm, atleast lots of rain. It's screaming the 50% rain forecast with the trough is probably a bit conservative.
I love passion fruit.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Once Ernesto get's into the N.W caribbean it will have a GOOD DAY according to ice cube.ST2K knows what I'm talking about.


Nice one! Ernesto needs to slow down which he will once he gets in the NW Caribbean. Infact he could stall there for a time which could be bad news for the US, TX over to the FL Panhandle.
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Notice how much it will move after monday....

Link

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331. Skyepony (Mod)
Nice to see recon scheduled for the inverted trough off East FL tomorrow. I was discussing this last night. My Passion fruit is blooming mad & in mid summer that usually means we are in for a storm, atleast lots of rain. It's screaming the 50% rain forecast with the trough is probably a bit conservative.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the point is what is bolded...


Yeah, and you have no idea why I asked that question.
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....................looks like the wave is starting to throw a few storms into west palm beach area already
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Excerpt for the Miami NWS Disco...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
RIDGE AXIS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A WEAK UPPER
LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EARLY MORNING UPPER-AIR SOUNDING
AT MIAMI INDICATED THIS WITH PRIMARILY WNW WINDS ALOFT. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE BAHAMAS WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE REMAINING JUST
EAST OF THE AXIS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND GENERALLY INDICATES IT CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL LIKELY
SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THIS TIME SATURDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
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Quoting Patrap:
Pretty impressive to see such a tenacious System, a CV Low Runner this in tact moving into the Carb.


I agree. What is most impressive to me is how so far
Ernesto has fought against ULL induced shear and dry Saharan air. We have seen either of these conditions kill storms before...
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Voice of reason to the Wishcasters this morning. We will see a hurricane soon but not right now as Ernesto has some issues to contend with right now. One being the SAL

Can you a day of blogging without calling somebody something? Geez.

I'm beginning to think you're a troll.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hydrus I would like to hear your thoughts...
The CRAS model does spin up the Bahama wave into a rather large sub-tropical storm. Ernesto is moving at 20 kts, and may be in the vicinity of the Bahama low. Things get tricky from there on how they will interact. NAM in 30 hours.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Voice of reason to the Wishcasters this morning. We will see a hurricane soon but not right now as Ernesto has some issues to contend with right now. One being the SAL


Wow, you're becoming very much like a troll. Does it make me a "wishcaster" for giving you FACT? I do not think it is becoming a hurricane currently, but when you storm in here and make claims that it's opening into a wave when it's clearly not, don't expect to not receive any ridicule from it!! It's even worse when you don't do any research to back those claims first.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the point is what is bolded...


LOL!
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,,control yerself, take only what you need from them..

Ernesto Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN.

Ernesto is probably going to blow up as soon as he slows down...........I hope Kman is paying attention in his neck of the woods.
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Once Ernesto get's into the N.W caribbean it will have a GOOD DAY according to ice cube.ST2K knows what I'm talking about.
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A family of tree's wanting, to be Haunted..




12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
Quoting Pocamocca:
This really does not look so impressive on satellite--both visible and infrared.



Voice of reason to the Wishcasters this morning. We will see a hurricane soon but not right now as Ernesto has some issues to contend with right now. One being the SAL
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:

Hurricane Dean
Hurricane Felix (2007)


Thanks, Dean was moving pretty fast. That's a good example.

But, did take three days to go from 45 to Major. Was cat2 just six hours before that (105 to 125 to 145 in 12hrs, 6hrs between).

The 125 to 145 to 150 movement was under 20mph.

Would be past CI by then.

Felix didn't reach 20mph until already a major and was mostly slower than 20mph.

Again, thanks for those. Confirms my thoughts based on past experience.

Still believe 20mph is about the cutoff for any quick intensification. Only steady strengthening above that, generally speaking. At current position, won't get strong enough for CI to worry about at its current rate of speed, imo, which is the context.
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clouds weakening:
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Grantley Adams
Hey I asked a question last night, about why the HWRF and GFDL only go out to 126 hrs.? I was wondering if you can shed some light on that.
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310. 7544
bahamma wave going ne ?
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Quoting Pocamocca:
This really does not look so impressive on satellite--both visible and infrared.

..i dont think the weather guys ever thought it would develop alot until it got closer to the yucatan, warm waters there and its supposed to slow down and maybe sit there..perking..its early yet
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Quoting MississippiWx:


What is your point?


Speed shear right now. Don't expect much until Ernesto gets to the NW Caribbean. Infact outflow boundries are continuing to push away from Ernesto as SAL and dry air are also a problem right now.

Look at all the Sal in front of Ernesto. Hurricane in NW Caribbean yes but not in the eastern Caribbean so calm down there buddy. Your get your big daddy hurricane in a couple of days but not now.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
If it continues to move sst the current pace it won't have much time to take advantage of those.
It will slow down once it reaches the Western Caribbean, something about build up of heat causes tropical waves to stack up there. I agree it is moving fast though, in other words cruising along.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.