Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Pocamocca:

It's about right there. And really cruising along. He needs to slow down a bit and try to get organized more. The road ahead isn't all peaches and cream...
He has slowed down slightly from 24 mph to 21 mph.
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I find it highly amusing how people are so terribly confident in making statements saying a storm is getting destroyed soon, or *will* hit somewhere...
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I wonder if this is also because of the wave that's in the Bahamas creating dry stable air on it's backside. Wave near FL is looking pretty good right now. Has way more convection than Ernesto.


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Quoting stormchaser19:




The dry air is pounding the Ernesto more than the wind shear the dry air is in front of he, one of those factors needs to go down and when that happen Kaboom!!

Ernesto has been drawing unlimited moisture from SAmer to build with; if that goes, in addition to the dry air in front of him he might HAVE to take a little nap for 48hrs.
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Quoting TampaCat5:
General observation, it always amazes me how he tropics seem to fire up right on cue in August. It shouldn't, but it does.


But not usually this early with a potential string of CV storms...........We normally have a lull (with the exception of 2005) for a few weeks in August before the action really starts in mid to late August and sheer goes "dead calm" like a swtich. If you will notice, the overall sheer levels are still way up there in parts of the MDR for this time of the year (as they should be). Makes Ernesto all that more impressive as climatology was against him this early.
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Quoting VR46L:


Great page ...wonder will it be as good in a year's time ...


why should it not be?
Its been mostly the same since i was 7 or 8, its not gonna change drastically
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its funny..all eyes are on ernesto..yet the wave off florida looks much better than ernesto right now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On the Bahamas disturbance, also note the huge Tutt cell/ULL adjacent to it just East of Florida. That enhanced covection is baroclinic in nature and not tropical. Still brings a lot of rain to the Bahamas and Florida regardless.

Link
finding.a.good.spot.
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398. VR46L
Quoting Patrap:


Why wouldnt it?

Thats ridiculous,,,

Its been there since 05


will the new owners maybe change it a bit , Maybe make it more commercial just wondering....
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ZOOm and Boxes are active

Ernesto Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
General observation, it always amazes me how he tropics seem to fire up right on cue in August. It shouldn't, but it does.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Surprised we do not have 91L yet. With the yellow circle and a possible recon mission tomorrow.
..yeah maybe they are doing what we are doing..watching and waiting to see how it developes, maybe by the 8pm we will hear more
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Off to work, I expect to still see Tropical Storm Ernesto when I get home tonight. Have a good day everyone.. No open wave later ;)
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Quoting stormchaser19:




The dry air is pounding the Ernesto more than the wind shear the dry air is in front of he, one of those factors needs to go down and when that happen Kaboom!!


I wonder if this is also because of the wave that's in the Bahamas creating dry stable air on it's backside. Wave near FL is looking pretty good right now. Has way more convection than Ernesto.


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Well looks like 90L will become the next name storm which would be Florence on the list:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Is he doing one
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Waiting for Levi and today's tidbit. :)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
Quoting waveRoller:


Will it start spinning above the Bahamas???

Central FL look out. rain rain rain
..yep going to be a wet few days
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting 7544:
hmm looks at that trof coming down could it catch ernesto at yucatan and pull a wilma track ?


Ewww - don't say that!
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386. yoboi
Quoting 7544:
look at that baham wave largo getting bigger now and as the nws says it going to move west it has all day today u think it has small window to develope thanks


suppose to head west to la/texas rain chances up here for first part of next week...
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Waiting for Levi and today's tidbit. :)
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Quoting LargoFl:
..yes i do think it may become a depression maybe..we will see we still have a day or two to watch it..its a rain maker for sure..dont think it has time to get real strong but..we watch and wait


Surprised we do not have 91L yet. With the yellow circle and a possible recon mission tomorrow.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting LargoFl:


Will it start spinning above the Bahamas???

Central FL look out. rain rain rain
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On the Bahamas disturbance, also note the huge Tutt cell/ULL adjacent to it just East of Florida. That enhanced covection is baroclinic in nature and not tropical. Still brings a lot of rain to the Bahamas and Florida regardless.

Link
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Quoting 19N81W:


well to be fair some of the guys in the met office give pretty good forecasts and know their stuff...problem is we never hear from them...the information they get out is usually from the nhc...its always good to have other opinions given where we are in the heat content area these storms have a habit of blowing up around us...
How long have you lived in the Caymans? I have lived here in the Keys most of my life, 52 years, and there is one thing I know, that weather is fickle. Many a time the Fl. Keys have been in the target of a storm and it never arrives. Also, there have been times when I can look at a storm off of South America and know that it is coming for me. We used to say that if it goes over the Isle of Youth it will hit Key West. That was back in the 60's. So what does your gut tell you about this storm. I bet you are getting a sinking feeling. Better listen to your inner voice and get ready! I know no one wants a hurricane, but living where we do, they are a fact of life. Hope it misses you and especially ME!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
the stronger this gets, the more it weakens the Subtropical Ridge as it heads off to the Northeast, that would leave the door open for Ernesto to take a turn as well towards the Northwest.
..yeah GT..this is going to get interesting, lets see what the NHC says tomorrow morning about it
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
A family of tree's wanting, to be Haunted..




12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702




The dry air is pounding the Ernesto more than the wind shear the dry air is in front of he, one of those factors needs to go down and when that happen Kaboom!!
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Quoting 7544:
look at that baham wave largo getting bigger now and as the nws says it going to move west it has all day today u think it has small window to develope thanks
..yes i do think it may become a depression maybe..we will see we still have a day or two to watch it..its a rain maker for sure..dont think it has time to get real strong but..we watch and wait
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting RedHedFred:



Yeah the NHC had been talking about that wave for 4 days. Wow you are so smart!


Thanks I appreciate it! I will sleep better tonight knowing you think I am smart.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14672
Quoting LargoFl:
.............................................hmmm the nam has the wave going into south florida a little..then coming back out into the atlantic by monday
the stronger this gets, the more it weakens the Subtropical Ridge as it heads off to the Northeast, that would leave the door open for Ernesto to take a turn as well towards the Northwest.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting VR46L:


Great page ...wonder will it be as good in a year's time ...


Why wouldnt it?

Thats ridiculous,,,

Its been there since 05
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting Skyepony:



Good morning Skye.

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368. 7544
look at that baham wave largo getting bigger now and as the nws says it going to move west it has all day today u think it has small window to develope thanks
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Based on the NHC only issuing a forecast out 5 days. There are probably some experimental versions running longer since NHC is evaluating going out to 7 days.
Oh okay yeah that makes sense it coincides with the NHC forecasting. I also noticed they normally don't run when there isn't a system, at least the operational.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
The AOI near the Bahamas is being heavily sheered at the moment and hopefully it will stay that way for any passage towards Florida as a rain event.

Link
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Looks like everything that comes out of Africa, from now on will find the favorable conditions, at least, not to vanish...
Even that small wave over land looks happy...

So, how will this be on Sep. 10-20??
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.............................................hmmm the nam has the wave going into south florida a little..then coming back out into the atlantic by monday
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
333: Are u his buddy LOL!!


I'm everyones buddy as it's a blog and I don't take anything personal on here. Life is too short for that.


Anyways this is interesting as a result of this bahamas disturbance it sends Enresto more NW. I still think this will be a C Gulf coast situation.

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359. VR46L
Quoting Patrap:
For one stop Tropical Links and other..

www.wunderground.com/tropical


Great page ...wonder will it be as good in a year's time ...
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COC appears to be near 13.3N & 62.1W IMO
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.