Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LargoFl:
..is 90L..the low off of africa?

Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
90L please come to see me :)
..is 90L..the low off of africa?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Wind Shear is actually not that bad over the Bahama Blob:


There is actually 30-40 knts shearing it on the west side.
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GFS has Ernesto a open wave.

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Quoting Pocamocca:

It's about right there. And really cruising along. He needs to slow down a bit and try to get organized more. The road ahead ain't all peaches and cream...


Interesting. Member since July 20, 2012 and 462 comments in less than two weeks. One said your name is Alyssa. Is that you Peggy???
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Quoting hydrus:
Maybe, and I believe once its starts to organize, it will do so quickly until it moves over land. 60 hours.
..gee hydrus..its going to be a whopper of a rain maker huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
451. yoboi
Quoting kwgirl:
I think it is a sad thing to realize that most of our complaints about hurricanes are about the discomfort and inconvenience we suffer after a storm passes. But still people do not evacuate. Worried about their property? If you did evacuate, would you rush back to see about that property? Just think of all the people in the Caribbean, Central America, even in the Pacific, who lose not only the place they live, their livelyhoods, but sometimes their lives. Hurricane Mitch comes to mind. I lost household goods and a year out of my life repairing my home. It was traumatic to me and until I got professional help, was having a hard time coping. Let's acknowledge that no one wants a hurricane. We all know the inconvenience. However, until my Weather Witch powers increase, or anyone elses, the storm will go where it goes. A lot of people on this blog love to try and out forecast the professionals. That's why a lot of us come to this site. So can we hold back on telling the horror stories of past hurricanes. Most of us have been through them and more!


look at it another way maybe telling horror stories will teach people the realities of a storm and might just save a persons life.....
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IMO, the GFS is going to be more southern bias, the fact that it's a 1002mb TS and not a 1009mb TD as initialized will show a weaker system through the entire run. The ECMWF probably won't develop at all as usual.
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90L please come to see me :)
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
GFS has Ernest as a open wave in 30hrs but expect it to restrengthen once it enters the NW Caribbean.



Which is what it has shown the entire time forecasting Ernesto.
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you for your answer!,do you know which way this wave will be moving?,the models were showing a west to NW movement yesterday,wondering if it will cross over Florida??,right now it appears to be stationary??,but it's so close to us!!.
..we will have to wait and see on that..its almost for sure the east coast of florida will be getting its storms..how far inland it goes I dont know..its a wait and see game for now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


My bad,I was going to add Ernesto would be only a threat to shipping for the next few days.


Maybe, but it seems that the stuff on the S side of Ernesto would affect Venezuela
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Quoting hydrus:
That will change.
hope.it.moves.north
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Wind Shear is actually not that bad over the Bahama Blob:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
GFS has Ernest as a open wave in 30hrs but expect it to restrengthen once it enters the NW Caribbean.

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Quoting 7544:


heres one Link
Thank you!!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The Bahama blog is still a sheared mess...
That will change.
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Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting angiest:


For the first half week after Ike the commute from Katy to the Medical Center was absolutely brutal. I'm wanting to say my normal 45 minute to 1 hour commute was well over 2 hours, due primarily to two major intersections having their lights out (West Loop at Old Katy being one of them). And that was 30-40 miles west of where the eye tracked.
I think it is a sad thing to realize that most of our complaints about hurricanes are about the discomfort and inconvenience we suffer after a storm passes. But still people do not evacuate. Worried about their property? If you did evacuate, would you rush back to see about that property? Just think of all the people in the Caribbean, Central America, even in the Pacific, who lose not only the place they live, their livelyhoods, but sometimes their lives. Hurricane Mitch comes to mind. I lost household goods and a year out of my life repairing my home. It was traumatic to me and until I got professional help, was having a hard time coping. Let's acknowledge that no one wants a hurricane. We all know the inconvenience. However, until my Weather Witch powers increase, or anyone elses, the storm will go where it goes. A lot of people on this blog love to try and out forecast the professionals. That's why a lot of us come to this site. So can we hold back on telling the horror stories of past hurricanes. Most of us have been through them and more!
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
I agreed!,we should start paying more attention to our East.


Any named storm gets hyped even if an unnamed storm poses a greater threat.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..hi, yes its something to watch alright, maybe by tonight the NHC will have more to say about it..tomorrow they have the plane going in, we will know much more then..to me its going to be a big rain maker with some wind and lightning..but we'll see
Thank you for your answer!,do you know which way this wave will be moving?,the models were showing a west to NW movement yesterday,wondering if it will cross over Florida??,right now it appears to be stationary??,but it's so close to us!!.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a STS on the florida coast?
Maybe, and I believe once its starts to organize, it will do so quickly until it moves over land. 60 hours.
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..................................most of its storms are still way off shore
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


What storm will only be harming shipping? Ernesto WILL make landfall somewhere and the Florida thing will hit Florida. No fish storms today. (90l is affecting the CV Islands)


My bad,I was going to add Ernesto would be only a threat to shipping for the next few days.
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Quoting RedHedFred:
NOLA CAT 5 Ernesto! You heard it here first!!! Get ready Rat.
a,stormtop.wannabee..not.this.time
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432. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
..sure is looking better huh GT


yeap im with you guys we been saying this scince it was where ernesto is now by the islands then went to pr and now the bahamas about to become the fl blob lol a im a bahamma wave watcher
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6794
Quoting LargoFl:
..sure is looking better huh GT
850 mb. vort increasing in that area:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Latest shear map:



The more north he goes, the stronger he will be.


Really? N= SHEAR SHEAR=weaker
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Quoting Hangten:
..wow..we Really need to pay attention to this
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
428. yoboi
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


LOL.....I loved that movie



lol just had to use that line nothing personal trying to inject some humor....
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The Bahama blog is still a sheared mess...
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425. 7544
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello from South Florida!,what are your nice graphics saying about where this wave is going this weekend?,I wonder if this wave will get a little bit organized as some of the guidance models are showing,and cross over Florida as a Tropical Depression,at least that is what the CMC and believe the NOGAP model were showing yesterday,I have not checked the Models run today,but I believe there is a Yellow circle from the NHC on this feauture,thank you!.


heres one Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6794
Quoting jeffs713:

Not odd at all. the NOAA overall has been working very hard to understand cyclogenesis, and flying frequently into storms in their formative stages is key to enhancing that understanding. Ernesto is in a perfect spot and situation for the NOAA to get LOADS of data they can pore through in the offseason to understand cyclogenesis. These flights are as much about research as they are about cyclogenesis. I wouldn't be shocked to see a G-IV flying soon.


Thank You
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I see the SAL in front of Ernesto but it also appears just right behind the wave the air behind is subsiding.
IIRC, that is rather normal for waves, especially those that come off in June/July, since the wave itself can help to pull off a SAL blob.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Bahama Blob:

..sure is looking better huh GT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello from South Florida!,what are your nice graphics saying about where this wave is going this weekend?,I wonder if this wave will get a little bit organized as some of the guidance models are showing,and cross over Florida as a Tropical Depression,at least that is what the CMC and believe the NOGAP model were showing yesterday,I have not checked the Models run today,but I believe there is a Yellow circle from the NHC on this feauture,thank you!.
..hi, yes its something to watch alright, maybe by tonight the NHC will have more to say about it..tomorrow they have the plane going in, we will know much more then..to me its going to be a big rain maker with some wind and lightning..but we'll see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
The Bahama Blob:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting yoboi:



ya can't HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!!


LOL.....I loved that movie
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Quoting LargoFl:
its funny..all eyes are on ernesto..yet the wave off florida looks much better than ernesto right now
I agreed!,we should start paying more attention to our East.
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Quoting jeffs713:

The dry, stable air isn't so much from the wave as it is from SAL.


I see the SAL in front of Ernesto but it also appears just right behind the wave the air behind is subsiding.
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416. yoboi
Quoting RedHedFred:
NOLA CAT 5 Ernesto! You heard it here first!!! Get ready Rat.


RAT??????
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Quoting LargoFl:
its funny..all eyes are on ernesto..yet the wave off florida looks much better than ernesto right now
Hello from South Florida!,what are your nice graphics saying about where this wave is going this weekend?,I wonder if this wave will get a little bit organized as some of the guidance models are showing,and cross over Florida as a Tropical Depression,at least that is what the CMC and believe the NOGAP model were showing yesterday,I have not checked the Models run today,but I believe there is a Yellow circle from the NHC on this feauture,thank you!.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Ernesto don't want to bring me rain up in the N Leewards, he continues west! SO WHY IS 90L PREDICTED TO GO NORTH OF US!

Someone turned on the storm protection bubble... (and they will be at the same longitude around a week apart)
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412. 7544
purples starting to show up on our bahmma wave at this hour
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6794
It's almost as if the wave in front of Ernesto has created subsidence behind it's wave axis thus choking off the moisture influx into Ernesto.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG, CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLOODING: STREET FLOODING AT ISOLATED LOCALES IS POSSIBLE THIS.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, HOTTEST OVER INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY WINDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER,
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Ernesto don't want to bring me rain up in the N Leewards, he continues west! SO WHY IS 90L PREDICTED TO GO NORTH OF US! Where is that blocking ridge lol
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
I wonder if this is also because of the wave that's in the Bahamas creating dry stable air on it's backside. Wave near FL is looking pretty good right now. Has way more convection than Ernesto.



The dry, stable air isn't so much from the wave as it is from SAL.
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Quoting Pocamocca:

It's about right there. And really cruising along. He needs to slow down a bit and try to get organized more. The road ahead isn't all peaches and cream...
He has slowed down slightly from 24 mph to 21 mph.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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