Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey Hydrus; good morning. I am looking at hi-res vis loops of that area and while it is firing up lots of convection, all the tops of the t-storms, and then some, are all getting blown off towards the East at a pretty fast clip.

Although, the sheer tendancy is dropping in that sweet spot between Florida and the Bahamas on the CIMSS chart below. It that what you are referring to?............. :)

Link
NWS has the trough lifting out and high pressure building in. The wave near Florida is also near the tail end of a stationary front. It is possible that it could pull Ernesto farther north than the most of the models are showing, especially if it remains at tropical storm strength.
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Good morning! Not much has changed with Ernesto, I see.
(click to enlarge)
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Quoting LargoFl:
..we will have to wait and see on that..its almost for sure the east coast of florida will be getting its storms..how far inland it goes I dont know..its a wait and see game for now
I don't know if you remember a couple of days ago when I mention that we should be paying more attention to that wave by Puerto Rico (at that point it was near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic).I has been following hurricanes & tropical systems formations for more than 25 years,I'm not a expert by any means,but I just got that feeling for tropical systems (many times!!!!!! I'm wrong and I don't like to question the experts at the NHC at all,they are the experts and I have a great deal of respect for then) but when you see a persistent system and don't want to die,I said watch out!,will see what happens with this system actually it looks very good!!!.
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A newby here. The projected tracks having possibly hitting the Yuc or going through the tracks. If it is a cat 1 and hits the Yuc will it severly degrade before entering the GOM? And does the forward speed have anything to do with the amount of degradation?

I'm in MS and watching this closely.
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......................storms firing up in south florida..no severe warnings yet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41581
Quoting Jrrtrollkien:
Quoting Pipejazz:
Interesting. Member since July 20, 2012 and 462 comments in less than two weeks. One said your name is Alyssa. Is that you Peggy???
482. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
its a kid i suspect from NC former name was spl was banned but u know come back as someone else always do

And you two care, why?


If people come back I dont see what the problem is...WU should look at is flattery if nothing else..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16202
I was hoping someone could educate me. I understand the hurricane eyewall is comprised of thunderstorms circulating around the low pressure center. I have experienced the eye of 4 seperate hurricanes pass over me, but not once do I ever recall any thunder or lightning, just tremendous wind and rain. Can anyone explain? Thanks!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yes you did. As a result Ernesto is suffering from the "Dead Zone".

Suffering? I think not.
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Quoting jeffs713:

That could push Ernesto further west, if they are close enough to directly interact.


Yeah it could go into C A or go north.
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Quoting Pipejazz:
Interesting. Member since July 20, 2012 and 462 comments in less than two weeks. One said your name is Alyssa. Is that you Peggy???
482. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
its a kid i suspect from NC former name was spl was banned but u know come back as someone else always do

And you two care, why?
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Quoting ncstorm:
Well..I have been saying for a minute that both waves had a good chance of developing and for people not to sleep on the first wave..yep I sure did..


Yes you did. As a result Ernesto is suffering from the "Dead Zone".

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The Bahama blob may end up affecting the eventual track of Ernestooooo
...what would happen..hmmm if ernesto and this east coast blob..were to meet?..oh boy..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41581
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Future 91L could alter Ernesto down the road.

This could get interesting.



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16202
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Future 91L could alter Ernesto down the road.

This could get interesting.


That could push Ernesto further west, if they are close enough to directly interact.
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489. 7544
we might see the bahama wave go up to 20 % in the next two
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Ernesto Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129384
Quoting Hangten:
...hmmm time to take notice of this thing, gee its going to take some people by surprise if they arent listening to the news etc..i remember the rains from debby..i hope this isnt going to be like her..hope its a fast mover..some rain and wind and its gone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41581
Future 91L could alter Ernesto down the road.

This could get interesting.

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Well..I have been saying for a minute that both waves had a good chance of developing and for people not to sleep on the first wave..yep I sure did..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16202
Quoting floridaboy14:
im waiting for Levi's tidbit
:(


lol have fun, i dont wait for things on the internet thats not on a predetermined scedule.....:)
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Ernesto looking more like a tropical storm, now. If that eye-like feature is the center, it's a tad further north than where the NHC have it.

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Quoting Pipejazz:


Interesting. Member since July 20, 2012 and 462 comments in less than two weeks. One said your name is Alyssa. Is that you Peggy???
its a kid i suspect from NC former name was spl was banned but u know come back as someone else always do
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Suspect we'll have 91L later today.

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The Bahama blob may end up affecting the eventual track of Ernestooooo
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The GFS continues to be incorrect with its initialization. It still shows an open wave at initialization which is very much incorrect and can lead to large errors in track and intensity.



the operational has been consistently too far south anyway
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Wind Shear is actually not that bad over the Bahama Blob:


It is in a very narrow pocket of low shear between two areas of high shear. One area is driven by the TUTT, the other by a trough. The prognosis isn't good.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It initiates it as a weak, disorganized 1009 millibar that is barely closed. That's obviously not the case here.
im waiting for Levi's tidbit
:(
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
90L moving more west on the 12Z GFS
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GFS continues to build this system in the Gulf from the Bahamas disturance.

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12z GFS..bahama wave-crossing over florida

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16202
Quoting kwgirl:
I think it is a sad thing to realize that most of our complaints about hurricanes are about the discomfort and inconvenience we suffer after a storm passes. But still people do not evacuate. Worried about their property? If you did evacuate, would you rush back to see about that property? Just think of all the people in the Caribbean, Central America, even in the Pacific, who lose not only the place they live, their livelyhoods, but sometimes their lives. Hurricane Mitch comes to mind. I lost household goods and a year out of my life repairing my home. It was traumatic to me and until I got professional help, was having a hard time coping. Let's acknowledge that no one wants a hurricane. We all know the inconvenience. However, until my Weather Witch powers increase, or anyone elses, the storm will go where it goes. A lot of people on this blog love to try and out forecast the professionals. That's why a lot of us come to this site. So can we hold back on telling the horror stories of past hurricanes. Most of us have been through them and more!


So in your mind it isn't appropriate to discuss past hurricanes/storms, how they have affected us and also we shouldn't prognosticate on future storms? What should we talk about on this blog, then?
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Quoting Pipejazz:


Interesting. Member since July 20, 2012 and 462 comments in less than two weeks. One said your name is Alyssa. Is that you Peggy???


Huh? I don't understand your point on this post, as Poca hasn't been trollish. Prolific in posting, but far from the most prolific here. (watch my post count when I am bored at work for several days... or watch Taz's any day).
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The GFS continues to be incorrect with its initialization. It still shows an open wave at initialization which is very much incorrect and can lead to large errors in track and intensity.

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Looks like the Bahama Blob has found its swag this morning! Luckily wind shear should keep him in check, for now
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Quoting Patrap:
We are seeing now, Ernesto's best convective Bursts.

Yes sir. I do believe they will up the windspeed a tad in the next 6 to 12 hours. Dry air in front tho..
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looks like convection is starting to pop around the COC's "eyewall"
the spots of building convection around the "eyewall" are 12.8N 63.5W, 12.5N 62.6W, 13.2N 62.8W, 13.8N 63.1w
look at rainbow loop
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting hydrus:
That will change.


Hey Hydrus; good morning. I am looking at hi-res vis loops of that area and while it is firing up lots of convection, all the tops of the t-storms, and then some, are all getting blown off towards the East at a pretty fast clip.

Although, the sheer tendancy is dropping in that sweet spot between Florida and the Bahamas on the CIMSS chart below. It that what you are referring to?............. :)

Link
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
GFS has Ernesto a open wave.


It initiates it as a weak, disorganized 1009 millibar that is barely closed. That's obviously not the case here.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
Quoting StormTracker2K:
GFS actually builds up the Bahama blob as it crosses FL and it gets into the Gulf. People may want to pay more attention to the Bahamas disturbance.

Yep it crosses over FL. and into the Gulf, look at 90L cruising along and minding her own business.
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Quoting Articuno:

There is actually 30-40 knts shearing it on the west side.
That would be easterly wind shear from the Ridge, good catch.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41581
GFS actually builds up the Bahama blob as it crosses FL and it gets into the Gulf. People may want to pay more attention to the Bahamas disturbance.

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Quoting LargoFl:
..is 90L..the low off of africa?

Yes
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Quoting LargoFl:
..is 90L..the low off of africa?

Yes.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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