Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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long time lurker here. We have been having tremendous thunder, lightning and rain here in west boynton for the last 1 1/2 hrs. What are the chances the NHC up the % on the bahama blob on the next TWO?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm this is different if Ernesto can survive the next few days. Notice the deep trough on the 12Z GFS.


Nice trough, but only goes down to the panhandle at 200mb. How does 500mb look (raleighwxcenter is blocked at work)?
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Ernesto runs into C.A and dies on the 12Z GFS.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It initiates it as a weak, disorganized 1009 millibar that is barely closed. That's obviously not the case here.


It's why I wanted to wait for the 12z Models. They could be quite interesting.
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


If its moving fast it will spend less time weakening over land so therefore a CAT 1 storm moving at 20 mph crossing the Yucatan will weaken less than a CAT 1 storm moving at 5 mph.


Good point. The same can be said for it moving through rough conditions over sea (dry air, wind shear). The quicker it moves through these areas the less time for it to weaken. Having said that.... the very fast forward speed of this storm has also definitely contributed to its slow development, its hard for these things to spin up when moving so quickly... Im surprised it has done as well as it has given the forward speed
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
Quoting CaribBoy:
Looks like boring time for the upper leewards :(


Ur a troll poof
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Very deep trough on this GFS run.
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548. wxmod
Russia Fires. MODIS today

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not in a good mood today... and I see Ernesto is still a weak TS.

Getting more organized.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Damm this is different if Ernesto can survive the next few days. Notice the deep trough on the 12Z GFS.

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Morning All. Seems Ernesto could be a doozy.

AOI in the Bahamas is looking fairly interesting.

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Quoting Pocamocca:


I always thought otherwise, but then pulled up a topo and a shaded relief map to see for myself and sure enough, very flat. Yes, it's still land he'd be interacting with, but with FAR LESS adverse affects on say a run in with Central America, for instance.
knew.that.40yrs.ago
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541. yoboi
Quoting Tribucanes:
90L going to begin the re-curve trough that gave us so many fish storms over the past few seasons? I'm thinking this could be a very good thing. I'm wondering, will the large blocking high send 90L back west at some point or will the expected path continue likely to the north and north east as is projected?


that's what a few runs showed so far...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Looks like boring time for the upper leewards :(
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536. 7544
Quoting allancalderini:
I just need to say the Aoi over the bahamas has suffer shear dry air and land interaction most of its life now I think that it really wants to get a name or at least achieve invest status. if by a miracle this develop we would have three tropical cyclones active in the Atlantic.the first time this year.


not to hype the bahama blob but jaws will drop it gets the f name before 90l lol but stranger things have hapen its looking too too good now
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting Msdrown:
A newby here. The projected tracks having possibly hitting the Yuc or going through the tracks. If it is a cat 1 and hits the Yuc will it severly degrade before entering the GOM? And does the forward speed have anything to do with the amount of degradation?

I'm in MS and watching this closely.


If its moving fast it will spend less time weakening over land so therefore a CAT 1 storm moving at 20 mph crossing the Yucatan will weaken less than a CAT 1 storm moving at 5 mph.
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Will low that came off africa devolop in tp a TD today?
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FSU predicts 10 named storms after july 31. Considering we have Ernesto, that is actually 9 systems remaining. AND WITH 90L forecasted to be a fish... chances are lessening for those who want interesting weather affecting their location.
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..WARNINGS UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.........................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ071-072-172-031630-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL
1205 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT NOON EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH LAUDERDALE...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
NORTH LAUDERDALE...
LAUDERHILL...
TAMARAC...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2614 8038 2633 8038 2628 8015 2615 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 064DEG 3KT 2621 8023

$$
KOB
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Finally Ernesto redevelopes near the YUC. Very possible Ernesto weakens over the coming days due to all the dry air issues and strong trade winds across the Eastern Caribbean.


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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
what is going on here!!

BahBlob decided to get round 15 minutes ago.
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Ernesto is sure moving at a good clip...starting to think the process of strengthening to a hurricane won't happen until it's well west of Jamaica.
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90L going to begin the re-curve trough that gave us so many fish storms over the past few seasons? I'm thinking this could be a very good thing. I'm wondering, will the large blocking high send 90L back west at some point or will the expected path continue likely to the north and north east as is projected?
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Quoting Jrrtrollkien:
Quoting Pipejazz:
Interesting. Member since July 20, 2012 and 462 comments in less than two weeks. One said your name is Alyssa. Is that you Peggy???
482. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
its a kid i suspect from NC former name was spl was banned but u know come back as someone else always do

And you two care, why?


i couldn't care less
just proves that they are not as smart
as they think they are
stuff that up your arse
and tell me how it feels

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW BIG rain coming now!!
wind.is.picking.up.ene.....e.cen.fl
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Quoting Msdrown:
A newby here. The projected tracks having possibly hitting the Yuc or going through the tracks. If it is a cat 1 and hits the Yuc will it severly degrade before entering the GOM? And does the forward speed have anything to do with the amount of degradation?

I'm in MS and watching this closely.


No.
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Quoting Pocamocca:

Better. Still under the weather though.
Best it has looked in terms of convection.

Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


Fairly elongated and not super organized if you ask me.
Circulation is elongated in no ways. Fairly tight and small rotation was being reported by the NHC (DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED
THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING.) not to mention Ernesto is the most organized it has ever been.
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Not in a good mood today... and I see Ernesto is still a weak TS.
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I just need to say the Aoi over the bahamas has suffer shear dry air and land interaction most of its life now I think that it really wants to get a name or at least achieve invest status. if by a miracle this develop we would have three tropical cyclones active in the Atlantic.the first time this year.
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Quoting Msdrown:
A newby here. The projected tracks having possibly hitting the Yuc or going through the tracks. If it is a cat 1 and hits the Yuc will it severly degrade before entering the GOM? And does the forward speed have anything to do with the amount of degradation?

I'm in MS and watching this closely.
Some, but the Yucatan is very flat, so land interaction isn't as severe as it would be if Ernesto was trying to cross the eastern side of Cuba or Hispaniola.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW BIG rain coming now!!

holy mother of lightning
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
When is the next recon into Ernesto?
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WOW BIG rain coming now!!
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Quoting Msdrown:
A newby here. The projected tracks having possibly hitting the Yuc or going through the tracks. If it is a cat 1 and hits the Yuc will it severly degrade before entering the GOM? And does the forward speed have anything to do with the amount of degradation?

I'm in MS and watching this closely.
..no mountains in the yucatan only dry flat land
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
514. wxmod
Sahara Dust. MODIS satellite today

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Quoting mobileshadow:

Doing better structure wise.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
what is going on here!!

A developing STS is what is happening.
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is that a surface low trying to form with the Bahama wave?
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
I don't know if you remember a couple of days ago when I mention that we should be paying more attention to that wave by Puerto Rico (at that point it was near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic).I has been following hurricanes & tropical systems formations for more than 25 years,I'm not a expert by any means,but I just got that feeling for tropical systems (many times!!!!!! I'm wrong and I don't like to question the experts at the NHC at all,they are the experts and I have a great deal of respect for then) but when you see a persistent system and don't want to die,I said watch out!,will see what happens with this system actually it looks very good!!!.
..yes i remember..we both have been watching this wave all week huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Suffering? I think not.


Fairly elongated and not super organized if you ask me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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