Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tamipeach:
Hi,
I don't post a lot but I have a question if you please.

On the other blog, someone had posted a TWO that mentioned something about the wave that is crossing Florida this weekend possibly organizing...

I had to go take some photos for a class and when I came back to read there was a new blog :(

Can someone give me the short version of what that might be? Is there a possibility of it developing into anything? thanks in advance:)
..they should know tomorrow after the NHC plane gets the readings..so far its sure looking possible
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Bahamas AOI has what it needs to organize, never know.



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Quoting Pocamocca:
Not saying the GFS will be correct and this thing is going where's it's suggesting, but this reminds me alot of Karl. And it very well could take that track and then explode in the BOC before slamming Mexico...

The GFS has it in Venezuela. That wolnt verify IMO
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Quoting Pocamocca:
Not saying the GFS will be correct and this thing is going where's it's suggesting, but this reminds me alot of Karl. And it very well could take that track and then explode in the BOC before slamming Mexico...


Or Alex.
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Quoting aggiegal:
So is it Texas or Mexico?


Too early to tell. Anwyhere between Central America to Florida. I'm still thinking Belize
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Quoting Pocamocca:

Wouldn't that be something. Talk about getting blindsided!! ha


Talk about being egg faced. Very possible solution right now. I think that's why the NHC is sending a Recon to check this Bahamas disturbance out.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..WARNINGS UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.........................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ071-072-172-031630-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL
1205 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT NOON EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH LAUDERDALE...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
NORTH LAUDERDALE...
LAUDERHILL...
TAMARAC...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2614 8038 2633 8038 2628 8015 2615 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 064DEG 3KT 2621 8023

$$
KOB


This is from this cell. About ready to hit here any minute.
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Quoting Pocamocca:


I always thought otherwise, but then pulled up a topo and a shaded relief map to see for myself and sure enough, very flat. Yes, it's still land he'd be interacting with, but with FAR LESS adverse affects on say a run in with Central America, for instance.


Then you get oddball storms that like the Yucatan:

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Hi,
I don't post a lot but I have a question if you please.

On the other blog, someone had posted a TWO that mentioned something about the wave that is crossing Florida this weekend possibly organizing...

I had to go take some photos for a class and when I came back to read there was a new blog :(

Can someone give me the short version of what that might be? Is there a possibility of it developing into anything? thanks in advance:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are we going to get 91L soon???
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Has the Euro or GFS correctly initialized the strength of Ernesto ONCE yet? If it keeps initializing this 8 mb higher than what it actually is, the entire run is more or less worthless, IMO.

No, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
A family of tree's wanting, to be Haunted..




12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
You leave this place for an hour and come back to find out you missed 300 comments, lol...

You can continue to throw out the GFS... The stupid thing can't seem to initialize Ernesto right.
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Yes, should slow down somewhere near Jamaica, part of the reason strengthening is expected to occur there. It has already slowed down slightly from its peak forward speed... but still moving very fast for a tropical system

The only other time I have seen storms move this fast is when they get picked up by a trof in the NATL. By the way whats going to slow it down?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
sorry for the dumb question but is the deep trough shown for Ernesto? Or, you mean for possible upcoming Florence?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I really don't understand the GFS's southern bias with this storm.


Has the Euro or GFS correctly initialized the strength of Ernesto ONCE yet? If it keeps initializing this 8 mb higher than what it actually is, the entire run is more or less worthless, IMO.
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If the system in the Bahamas orgainze then Ernesto maybe done. Very interesting and makes sense.
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Quoting Pocamocca:

So far...he's been following it pretty close the past 24 hours or so.


Ummmm, i dont think so.. initial frame is a open wave and further south than where its at now.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


Is Ernesto supposed to slow down at all I havent Looked yet


Yes, should slow down somewhere near Jamaica, part of the reason strengthening is expected to occur there. It has already slowed down slightly from its peak forward speed... but still moving very fast for a tropical system
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I need a tidbit now :(
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Why does it keep doing that?


i dont know, a lot of the ensembles are with the dynamicals splitting the yucatan cuba gap, i suspect it has to do with bad initiation
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I really don't understand the GFS's southern bias with this storm.


Really?


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ZOOM and Boxes are active

Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Pocamocca:

I don't either...but I'm still not reluctant to bail on it yet. It's like it's screaming at me to follow it. I feel bad to ditch in but then wonder what it is really seeing!!! ahhh!!

162 hrs...furthest south yet I think.


Not going to scrape Venezuela i dont think!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
So is it Texas or Mexico?
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GFS is out to lunch again i see.. it hasn't initiated correctly yet with this storm... it also initiates it to far south. What gives? It sure doesn't have a good handle on this one that's for sure
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Quoting bocahurricane:
long time lurker here. We have been having tremendous thunder, lightning and rain here in west boynton for the last 1 1/2 hrs. What are the chances the NHC up the % on the bahama blob on the next TWO?


Very well could, nasty up here in Jupiter this morning as well. Seems to be tightening up just east of Andros.



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Quoting jeffs713:

Nice trough, but only goes down to the panhandle at 200mb. How does 500mb look (raleighwxcenter is blocked at work)?


Not the strongest but strong enough. Either way the GFS run makes sense with running it into C.A. as the Euro has been showing this happening for days now.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Ur a troll poof


quick to judgement...
haste makes waste...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the operational has been consistently too far south anyway


Why does it keep doing that?
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563. yoboi
Quoting Pocamocca:

i failed geography and got out of taking it in college. :)


how did ya pull that off in college???
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Good point. The same can be said for it moving through rough conditions over sea (dry air, wind shear). The quicker it moves through these areas the less time for it to weaken. Having said that.... the very fast forward speed of this storm has also definitely contributed to its slow development, its hard for these things to spin up when moving so quickly... Im surprised it has done as well as it has given the forward speed


Is Ernesto supposed to slow down at all I havent Looked yet
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Quoting Pocamocca:
GFS (12Z) 150 hours in.

click to enlarge...

I really don't understand the GFS's southern bias with this storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
This inverted trough associated with the tropical wave off the east coast of Florida sure got it's act together in a hurry today. Yesterday it was quite the site too as it battered Cuba. We've seen this area blobbed over often in the last few weeks. No way this has the time to develop, does it? Pressures dropping in association with it?
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506. hydrus 12:06 PM EDT on August 03, 2012

Thanks. Back to lunch and lurking; it's basically a watch and wait at this point but I have faith in the current NHC forecasts on all fronts with the exception of the uncertainty as to intensity with Ernesto and ultimate track at the end of the current guidance which is generally unreliable more that 5 days out.

I usually switch over to the 3-Day tracks at this point and wait for subsequent updates to that track rather than focus on the longer term for obvious reasons.

Have a Great Weekend.
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long time lurker here. We have been having tremendous thunder, lightning and rain here in west boynton for the last 1 1/2 hrs. What are the chances the NHC up the % on the bahama blob on the next TWO?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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