Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 5107 - 5057

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Quoting Patrap:


So that's why it rained for 10 seconds!! I was wondering bout that random shower.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5106. scott39
Ernesto looks better than a 50mph TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5105. GetReal



IMO Ernesto could ramp up quickly anytime today into a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5104. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
Quoting 7544:
o is south fl not going to get anything from 91L except the normal seabreeze stroms kikin in latter today or can we see a small blow up again latter this afternoon as we see yesterday tia


91L will bring the usual every day to south Florida, here IN THE TROPICS we get random isolated showers that when I look outside my window it looks like a shot from a hurricane news report. We deal with it..

Nice day out this morning. guess 91L is still out to sea.
I have a golf tournament to shoot this afternoon, what the percentage of that happening? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
He should be able to but once he hits the west Caribbean, no matter happens before, expect strengthening to happen.


I agree with that.

We should see some improvement starting after the CoC passes 73W.

There is a warm pocket at 70W but the circulation probably won't respond for a few hours later due to location and just lag time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alot can happen in a matter of days.. Remember Ivan? Was expected to hit Tampa, then just 2 days the track changed to the Panhandle. Ernesto in 2006 was expected to enter the GOM, instead, an upper level low dived southward and grabbed the storm, went the Florida. Things can and will change.. We'll see what Ernesto does in the next couple days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5100. scott39
To say ernesto is going to die into an open wave.....is more than laughable....it is idiotic!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty much right over the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5097. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..

I see there is almost 5100 comments and then I see we have TS florence in addition to Ernesto..no wonder..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting tennisgirl08:


You're right. It is dry air...but question is can he survive it?
He should be able to but once he hits the west Caribbean, no matter happens before, expect strengthening to happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey 91L!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cloudy day here in the "Island of Enchantment", as Ernestos wave good bye 200 miles to our south. Doc should update his "blog" or pretty soon he will be 3 or more storms late...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5093. scott39
Ernesto will move more W in the GOM IF....the High over Ok. moves farther S. This would trap Ernesto under it and steer it into S Texas or Mexico. A more likely scenerio is the High over OK. to hang out where it is and Ernesto to slow down and move around the High it is currently under, and move towards the nw to n towards the weakness between the 2 highs. We wiil see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ernesto may intensify but if it doesn`t make it fast would probably make landfall at Yucatan or Belize.91L is pretty much dead right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
a question for the more educated on here: the computer models in the initialization when it comes to tract do they take into account a storm weakening or do they just use data of a storm the same strength or stronger?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaboy14:
DRY AIR PEOPLE! Thats whats choking him up. once he gets it out of his system he will get stronger. stop saying he will degenrate into a wave because you sound like you dont know anything. ITS DRY AIR FOLKS! THATS IT!


You're right. It is dry air...but question is can he survive it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Convection continues to burst over the center.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32043
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5087. Patrap
Quoting reedzone:


I'm conservative but I gotta admit, that was a good comeback :)


U betcha!

Southern Decadence is a Big Tourist Influx here.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
#5055...Looks like EPAC is getting going again....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Er, I beg yer pardon?

Im happily married with one in 3rd Year Nursing and one Pat Jr.

LoL

Now, you come for weather or for FOX talking pernts?



I'm conservative but I gotta admit, that was a good comeback :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5007. That is a HUGE pocket of dry air in front of Ernesto. Not sure if he can punch through....but this explains the southward shift in the models...a weaker Ernesto will stay south and west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5080. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:54Z
Date: August 4, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 24

13:55:00Z 14.250N 68.467W 842.5 mb

(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,566 meters
(~ 5,138 feet) 1008.3 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 277° at 3 knots
(From the W at ~ 3.4 mph) 18.3°C
(~ 64.9°F) 9.3°C
(~ 48.7°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 9.0 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
300.0%

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 13:45:30Z (first observation), the observation was 328 miles (528 km) to the SSE (167°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

At 13:55:00Z (last observation), the observation was 307 miles (495 km) to the SSE (162°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
ernesto should get it act back together by this eveing should really start to ramp up by then
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, because Ernesto is a weak area of vorticity right now, right?


Low level covergence appears rather weak. Iam looking at 30-35kt winds from recon. Still i think ernesto (should) eventually intensify but till now its having a difficult time as models had forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5077. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting hurricane23:
As of now EURO has been spot on with ernesto.

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5075. Patrap
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Not bad! How was the kissing?


Fresca?


Er, I beg yer pardon?

Im happily married with one in 3rd Year Nursing and one Pat Jr.

LoL

Now, you come for weather or for FOX talking pernts?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
Good Morning, We have along way to go before a possible US landfall with Ernesto. The computer models will be sure to change several times over the next several days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


91L is no more... The remnants should absorb into the weakness and help pull Ernesto more north.





Thanks. just wanted to see what yall thought about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


So did I ,if ya read the link I had there sport.

: )

How was the Chicken?



Not bad! How was the kissing?


Fresca?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DRY AIR PEOPLE! Thats whats choking him up. once he gets it out of his system he will get stronger. stop saying he will degenrate into a wave because you sound like you dont know anything. ITS DRY AIR FOLKS! THATS IT!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
5069. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting Gorty:
Is TD 6 a TS now?
yep...

4 all... I think a Mexico landfall is pretty much in the cards. I find it hard to believe even a strong Ernesto would not cross at least some part of the Yucatan. After that, it has to be obvious that things are still "up in the air". This is not a plywood buying moment for anybody Gulf-side... it's a "check" ur plans and keep a weather eye moment. Ernesto is, IMO likely to survive this latest dry air and subsidence and improve to a hurricane in the WCar. Which means that it's likely Sunday night or Monday before we can decide which of the two scenarios is more likely; west to Mexico and TX, or north towards LA/AL/MS...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5067. Patrap
Quoting LargoFl:
..no drought in your area huh Pat


Nope


But a seriously LOW Miss River due to No water in da watershed up North. They may start dredging any day above Vicksburg.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


91L is no more... The remnants should absorb into the weakness and help pull Ernesto more north.


The stronger Ernesto is the more to the north it will trend
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5064. scott39
Ernesto is tracking into literally no wind shear. The red carpet has been laid out! I wonder about pressures rising and wind speed dropping??? Its only temporary if it is happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5063. Patrap
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hi Pat! Remember this image you posted the other day?







Turns out this was the result of a dumpster fire, not the heatwave as reported by some, in Oklahoma.

Just setting the record straight.


So did I ,if ya read the link I had there sport.

: )

How was the Chicken?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
Quoting hericane96:
hey i have a question i've been whatching the storm and how do yall think invest 91L and ernesto will interact.


91L is no more... The remnants should absorb into the weakness and help pull Ernesto more north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5061. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Los Boomers

..no drought in your area huh Pat
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
5060. Patrap




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
Hi Pat! Remember this image you posted the other day?







Turns out this was the result of a dumpster fire, not the heatwave as reported by some, in Oklahoma.

Just setting the record straight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5058. Patrap
Los Boomers

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
hey i have a question i've been whatching the storm and how do yall think invest 91L and ernesto will interact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 5107 - 5057

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
74 °F
Light Rain