Tropical Storm Ernesto forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:02 PM GMT on August 02, 2012

Share this Blog
47
+

Observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Storm Ernesto has arrived. The season's fifth tropical storm has surface winds of 50 mph on the north side near 14°N, but has an ill-defined surface circulation with almost no winds out of the west. Ernesto is not a pretty sight on visible satellite loops, with patchy heavy thunderstorm activity and little spiral banding. Arc-shaped low clouds can be seen racing away from Ernesto on its north side, an indication that the storm is ingesting dry air that is causing strong thunderstorm downdrafts. This sort of phenomena is seen in storms that are struggling to hold together in the face of wind shear and dry air. Wind shear over Ernesto is at the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots. Water vapor satellite loops show that Ernesto is at the southern edge of a large area of dry air. Wind shear due to strong upper level winds from the west is driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. A series of Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to visit Ernesto every six hours to keep tabs on it.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ernesto. Note the arc-shaped low clouds on the north side of Ernesto, which mark the boundaries of where thunderstorm outflow due to ingestion of dry air is occurring.

Forecast for Ernesto
Since the Hurricane Hunters found Ernesto's strongest winds to be near 14°N, I expect that Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, and Barbados will see the strongest winds on Friday during Ernesto's passage through the islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, then fall to the low range through Tuesday, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. Given Ernesto's poor organization, I give a 20% chance that the storm will degenerate into a tropical wave on Friday. If this happens, the storm will still be capable of bringing winds of 50 mph to the Windward Islands, though--and will still be capable of regenerating into a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. Once Ernesto clears the Lesser Antilles, the reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more westerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Honduras on Monday night, is being discounted by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, it is possible that the storm's outer spiral bands will cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the HWRF clearly shows Ernesto reaching hurricane strength over the next five days. So, the official NHC forecast of a hurricane near Jamaica on Monday is an aggressive one. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar image taken just before landfall as Typhoon Damrey approached the coast of China. Image credit: weather.com.cn.

Typhoon Damrey hits China
Typhoon Damrey hit China near the Chenjiagang Township of Xiangshui County around 9:30 p.m. local time Thursday as a strong Category 1 storm with winds near 85 mph. It is too early to know what sort of damage the storm may have caused. The Western Pacific is entering a very active period, and is likely to get at least two more new named storms in the next week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2002 - 1952

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

2002. NCHurricane2009
4:12 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
I released my 70th tropical update of this season this morning...covering Ernesto and what is now 90L...and more...

I've been told that these in-depth updates help folks understand things about the tropics they didn't before...that's why I keep doing them. Let me know what you think too...or feel free to leave comments.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
2001. kwgirl
2:34 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Over land, yes. Over water, nighttime is best.

Storms intensify during the day over land due to the difference between surface temp and air temp. (land heats faster than water). So over land, the ground temp is hotter than the air, which means warm air rises faster, causing storms.

Over water during the day, the water doesn't warm that much or quickly, so the warmer air temps cause the air to actually stabilize (due to the decreased difference between air and surface temp). At night, the water is warmer than the air, causing increased lift and evaporation - feeding storms.
Hence causing RI! Good morning all.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
2000. Patrap
1:59 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
1999. ncstorm
1:57 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..this might give us a windy and rainy start to next week,funny thing is, this will be moving to the northern gulf, while ernesto will be entering the southern gulf..an interesting week ahead for sure around the gulf coast


its supposed to turn before getting into the gulf back to the east..which might set up Ernesto as well
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
1998. GeorgiaStormz
1:56 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
De ja vu with the last blog posts with jeffs and pocamoca.
cant remember what happened to ernesto though. lol.
But its on the tip of my brain
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
1997. canehater1
1:55 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Link

Barbados Sat view
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1085
1996. GeorgiaStormz
1:54 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
This is what happens when lightning strikes a wind turbine. Thanks to Deb Bushman for taking the picture:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
1995. AussieStorm
1:54 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting DataNerd:




An open circulation is not an eye. That is standard on the form and is used to describe the COC characteristics. Does not=eye.

Look at the visible sat it tells you all you need to know: Link


Almost an open low again.


IMO More interesting is:

1. Florida trough (potentially).
2. New african wave, although would likely be fish storm.

If there is no eye, they state in L. none

Why would they state in L. Eye Character: Open, Open North
Then describe the eye shape
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles


If there was no eye.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1994. jascott1967
1:53 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
As a Texas coast resident, I am pleased that my neighbhours who help populate this website have the common sense to not wish Ernesto our way. I catch no joy in living without power for a week in sweltering heat and humidity while cutting down tree limbs and cleaning up the mess left over from a landfalling storm and/or hurricane.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
1993. LargoFl
1:52 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


toot toot..(blowing my horn)
..this might give us a windy and rainy start to next week,funny thing is, this will be moving to the northern gulf, while ernesto will be entering the southern gulf..an interesting week ahead for sure around the gulf coast
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1992. ncstorm
1:50 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Written before the yellow circle...

HPC

TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLY ORGANIZING AS IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
SATURDAY...
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE

THE 00Z UKMET IS THE STRONGEST...THE 00Z CANADIAN THE QUICKEST
WITH ITS NORTHWEST PROGRESSION...WHILE THE 00Z GFS THE WEAKEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO UNDER BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WHICH LEAVES
THE AREA NEAR FLORIDA IN A DIVERGENT/SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE PATTERN
ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z CANADIAN BACKED OFF
ITS STRONGER SOLUTION FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...WHICH WORKS OUT FINE
SINCE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ CURRENTLY IS NOT
CARRYING THE DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN CUBA/BAHAMAS AS AN
AREA OF INTEREST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE 17Z
COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC ENDED UP WITH A WEAKLY ORGANIZED
FEATURE OVER FLORIDA/THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
UKMET ALSO TOOK ERNESTO /TO ITS SOUTHEAST/ ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK DUE TO THIS FEATURE...WHICH WAS NOT PREFERRED BY NHC IN
THEIR LATEST FORECAST. TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT...WILL FAVOR
THE WEAKER GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CLOSEST TO AN 00Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LOW PREDICTABILITY
OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BY DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NHC CONCERNING AREAS OF
INTEREST ACROSS THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS.




toot toot..(blowing my horn)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
1991. LargoFl
1:50 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1990. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:50 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting DataNerd:




An open circulation is not an eye. That is standard on the form and is used to describe the COC characteristics. Does not=eye.

Look at the visible sat it tells you all you need to know: Link


Almost an open low again.


IMO More interesting is:

1. Florida trough (potentially).
2. New african wave, although would likely be fish storm.

They don't use those lines to describe the COC. I think Aussie and I have been watching recon enough to tell that they reported an eyewall.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
1989. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1988. DataNerd
1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting
Tazmanian





I'll wager you 10 e-bucks it is ;)
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1987. floridaboy14
1:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
is ernesto restregthining?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
1986. DataNerd
1:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


Care to rethink your previous statement....

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 11:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 11:10:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°35'N 61°20'W (13.5833N 61.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 27 miles (43 km) to the N (350°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 75° at 49kts (From the ENE at ~ 56.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NNW (339°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open North
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph) in the north quadrant at 11:08:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 11:14:30Z
Radar Signature: Good
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
OPEN NORTH QUAD.




An open circulation is not an eye. That is standard on the form and is used to describe the COC characteristics. Does not=eye.

Look at the visible sat it tells you all you need to know: Link


Almost an open low again.


IMO More interesting is:

1. Florida trough (potentially).
2. New african wave, although would likely be fish storm.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1985. Houstonweathergrl
1:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Jeff,
No I'm in local government......HR
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 189
1984. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


Then the dance begins..
As you well know these storms have a way of their own and when they speed up or slow down or go left/right...the tracks move accordingly..
Tracks being what they are won't make a hill of beans to it..
BE Prepared to all..More storms left to come..
(Keep.. see post 1931)
and to think this is only just the beginning gonna be a busy 45 days or so ahead and the mojo don't kick in till the new moon on aug 17

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1982. Tazmanian
1:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
90L is not a fish storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
1981. 7544
1:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
looks like ernesto trying to pull further north at this hour

keep one eye on the bahamas wave as it moves nw today very slow
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
1980. jeffs713
1:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting GetReal:



IMO dry air intrusion is becoming less and lee of a problem for Ernesto, and he seems to be battling through the wind shear.

I agree. He has moistened his environment pretty well. The storms generated from the outflow yesterday primed the atmosphere ahead of him remarkably well.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
1979. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting DataNerd:

Not at all.

He's right. Go check the VDM's.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
1978. AussieStorm
1:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting DataNerd:



Not at all.


Fish storm.


Care to rethink your previous statement....

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 11:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 11:10:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°35'N 61°20'W (13.5833N 61.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 27 miles (43 km) to the N (350°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 75° at 49kts (From the ENE at ~ 56.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NNW (339°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open North
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph) in the north quadrant at 11:08:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 11:14:30Z
Radar Signature: Good
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
OPEN NORTH QUAD.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1977. CybrTeddy
1:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Not bad, I could see this becoming Florence even though model support is lackluster.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
1976. DataNerd
1:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You sure do change your opinion a lot, huh?



I change with the changing of the weather. No point in hanging on to something based on outdated information.



But I really hate it when the models go loopy this far into an existing system.


IMO at this point I am ready to say its going to end up in Mexico or in central america, system looks alot weaker this morning then it did yesterday without that depth to it it will not be turning.

Its also further south then the fcast points.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1975. GetReal
1:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2012



IMO dry air intrusion is becoming less and lee of a problem for Ernesto, and he seems to be battling through the wind shear.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
1973. jeffs713
1:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Tell Ernesto that..
Once a storm has a solid low-pressure center, the overall low pressure environment throws off the daytime heating issue. Also, bear in mind that when there are clouds over the water, there is not as much of a daytime heating effect, which leads to that difference again...
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
1972. 7544
1:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
guess no one here ever thought we be talking about a tropical trio today
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
1971. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1970. LargoFl
1:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
....................we have another Yellow circle
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1969. DataNerd
1:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Recon noted an eyewall in there last pass.



Not at all.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:



Fish storm.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1968. pcola57
1:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by sunday morning it will be nearing hurricane status


Then the dance begins..
As you well know these storms have a way of their own and when they speed up or slow down or go left/right...the tracks move accordingly..
Tracks being what they are won't make a hill of beans to it..
BE Prepared to all..More storms left to come..
(Keep.. see post 1931)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6916
1967. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting DataNerd:
Well, Ernesto is confusing as all get out this morning.

I expected the aircraft data to help with the models, instead there is now far more spread then I have ever seen on most nonstaitionary systems. It really is quite bad, we have everything from a trip to central america to a trip to the keys basically with the current runs.


Nothing to do but wait and watch. As to structure I was rather surprised to see it looking worse this morning not better, as last night it appeared to be organizing.

Now it resembles a wave with a low stuck to the front of it.

Cant help but think that GFS may have been right all along.

You sure do change your opinion a lot, huh?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
1965. washingtonian115
1:42 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Over land, yes. Over water, nighttime is best.

Storms intensify during the day over land due to the difference between surface temp and air temp. (land heats faster than water). So over land, the ground temp is hotter than the air, which means warm air rises faster, causing storms.

Over water during the day, the water doesn't warm that much or quickly, so the warmer air temps cause the air to actually stabilize (due to the decreased difference between air and surface temp). At night, the water is warmer than the air, causing increased lift and evaporation - feeding storms.
Tell Ernesto that..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
1963. wunderkidcayman
1:42 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
morning guys

Ernesto looking good in organization and not too bad on convection I expect Ernesto to grow in organization and in convection as the morning continues and I expect ernesto to start droping in forwaed speed as early as late afternoon to this evening though the speed won't drop off dramaticly but a steady slow down I expect speeds to drop down between 18kt and 16kt
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12717
1962. LargoFl
1:41 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1961. AussieStorm
1:41 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting weatherb0y:
What eyewall are you seeing? I see no eyewall man...

Recon noted an eyewall in there last pass.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1960. jeffs713
1:41 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Besides, I would have to report to work as soon as it's safe to do so. Hate working storms....I'd rather just run like everyone else but I have to stay in town.

You work in a hospital?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
1959. LargoFl
1:40 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Written before the yellow circle...

HPC

TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLY ORGANIZING AS IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
SATURDAY...
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE

THE 00Z UKMET IS THE STRONGEST...THE 00Z CANADIAN THE QUICKEST
WITH ITS NORTHWEST PROGRESSION...WHILE THE 00Z GFS THE WEAKEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO UNDER BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WHICH LEAVES
THE AREA NEAR FLORIDA IN A DIVERGENT/SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE PATTERN
ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z CANADIAN BACKED OFF
ITS STRONGER SOLUTION FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...WHICH WORKS OUT FINE
SINCE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ CURRENTLY IS NOT
CARRYING THE DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN CUBA/BAHAMAS AS AN
AREA OF INTEREST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE 17Z
COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC ENDED UP WITH A WEAKLY ORGANIZED
FEATURE OVER FLORIDA/THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
UKMET ALSO TOOK ERNESTO /TO ITS SOUTHEAST/ ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK DUE TO THIS FEATURE...WHICH WAS NOT PREFERRED BY NHC IN
THEIR LATEST FORECAST. TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT...WILL FAVOR
THE WEAKER GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CLOSEST TO AN 00Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LOW PREDICTABILITY
OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BY DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NHC CONCERNING AREAS OF
INTEREST ACROSS THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS.


..we sure need to watch this one for sure..ty for posting that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1958. jeffs713
1:40 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


Don't all storms prefer daytime hours due to convection support from daytime heating

Over land, yes. Over water, nighttime is best.

Storms intensify during the day over land due to the difference between surface temp and air temp. (land heats faster than water). So over land, the ground temp is hotter than the air, which means warm air rises faster, causing storms.

Over water during the day, the water doesn't warm that much or quickly, so the warmer air temps cause the air to actually stabilize (due to the decreased difference between air and surface temp). At night, the water is warmer than the air, causing increased lift and evaporation - feeding storms.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
1957. redwagon
1:40 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Ernesto's convection isn't particularly deep, but he is building quite a bit... He seems to be the opposite of a normal tropical cyclone... Most strengthen at night and weaken during the day... He does the opposite!


He's out of the blocks early this AM, too, moving fast again.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
1956. Houstonweathergrl
1:39 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Besides, I would have to report to work as soon as it's safe to do so. Hate working storms....I'd rather just run like everyone else but I have to stay in town.
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 189
1955. serialteg
1:39 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting GetReal:


its trying...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
1954. floridaT
1:39 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting Pocamocca:

Wud up T? After you get home from church sunday, the track will become more clear... correct.
my thinking is with it fluctuating on trying to get started the models are not as accurate. if the warmer water and less shear get it ramped up just a bit the models will be much more accurate.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1093
1953. LargoFl
1:39 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
............Tampa Bay area 7-day,looks like that tropical wave WILL cross over florida and give us a wet weekend
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1952. centex
1:38 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Wherever it's going it sure is in a hurry, 24MPH now. Pressure as been dropping which means winds will catch up later if that continues.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293

Viewing: 2002 - 1952

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron