Tropical Depression 5 forms; Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan; 115° in Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:22 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

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Tropical Storm Watches are flying for much of the Lesser Antilles, as the islands await the arrival of Tropical Depression Five, which formed at 5 pm EDT today. The new depression is still fairly ragged looking, as seen on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is only on the south side of the center, due to higher wind shear on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. TD 5 has one respectable low-level spiral band on its south side, but additional spiral bands are beginning to appear, and the areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has increased markedly in the late afternoon hours. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 has a reasonably moist environment. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 5.

Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. This should allow TD to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by Thursday. NHC is giving a 27% chance that TD 5 will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, when it will be passing through the islands. The reliable computer models are not in good agreement on the future intensity of TD 5. A band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with an upper level low lies to the north of TD 5, and our most reliable model, the ECMWF, predicts that this shear will extend down into the islands on Friday and Saturday, and tear TD 5 apart. However, the almost equally reliable GFS model predicts that this band of wind shear will remain north of TD 5, and the storm will have clear sailing for the next five days, with only moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting it. At this point, we'll have to wait and see how future model runs handle the shear forecast.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Saola hitting Taiwan at 2:30 am local time August 2, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons expected to make landfall in China on Thursday. Typhoon Saola hit northern Taiwan as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds near 3 am local time on August 2, 2012. Saola is predicted to hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Thursday as a Category 1 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Korea, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday as a Tropical Storm.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in Oklahoma continued on Wednesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 115° temperature recorded in Okmulgee, Oklahoma. This is not far from Oklahoma's state temperature record of 120°, set in in Tipton on June 27, 1994. Oklahoma City has hit 110° thus far this afternoon, which is the 3rd highest temperature measured in the city since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days were August 10 - 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 112° and 113°, respectively. Chandler, Enid, Guthrie, Norman, Chickasha, and Shawnee in Oklahoma have all hit 113° today.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Guess I could add Dean from 2007 as well, which took a similar trajectory to Charlie.



I was thinking the same thing. Although the fcast track for dean was generally further south than this throughout its life.


But similar in many ways.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
The longer TD5 takes to intensify, the less threat there is to the US.
I assume Lili of 2002 the best analogue of the one you post.but the more it takes to intensify it makes more threat to me right?
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1025. yoboi
Quoting skook:




And it's hard to hit the ignore button? Use the features they offer, if you disagree with someone, and wundermail the admins.


when they e-mail ya and threaten ya harm crossed the line..i can ignore but when ya e-mail me personally threaten me nah...cyber bullying...
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Quoting KoritheMan:
So far I have a few analogs for TD5 (assuming it survives, which it should):

Gustav (2008)
Dolly (2008)
Karl (2010)
Charley (2004)
Lili (2002)

With the least likely of these being Charley.

2 more to add to that Dean (07) and chantel (01)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
The panhandle at 192

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
The longer TD5 takes to intensify, the less threat there is to the US.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Quoting MississippiWx:


Charlie from 1951 is the best I could come up with. It is one of the best analogs for the 500mb pattern in 8-10 days according to the CPC.


Guess I could add Dean from 2007 as well, which took a similar trajectory to Charlie.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
1019. skook
Quoting yoboi:


i know but ya been on here longer than me i lurked for yrs signed up a couple of yrs ago...i know alot of people tired of the troll..ya can't just click ignore because the troll already has 5 names set in advance it's sad when things get busy in the tropic's this 1 troll is here everyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyday it gets old...




And it's hard to hit the ignore button? Use the features they offer, if you disagree with someone, and wundermail the admins.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
So far I have a few analogs for TD5 (assuming it survives, which it should):

Gustav (2008)
Dolly (2008)
Karl (2010)
Charley (2004)
Lili (2002)

With the least likely of these being Charley.


Charlie from 1951 is the best I could come up with. It is one of the best analogs for the 500mb pattern in 8-10 days according to the CPC.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Sorry but, Janiel has never done anything remotely deserving of legal action. The guy just doesn't know how to express himself well. That's all. Let it go and move on.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Quoting yoboi:



was deployed to katrina was there for a couple of weeks then went back to swla few weeks later a tornado from rita hitt my house everything was gone lost everything....i lost things money could never buy...2005 was a bad yr but i just sucked it up an moved on.....


I'm sorry. It was bad. :( Hope to never see the likes of those storms again.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
hmm me and the NHC were close I had 12.6N 51.6W and NHC has 12.7N 51.6W still S of the forecast plots
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
1014. yoboi
Quoting hunkerdown:

problem is he is not making any threats (in fact, you are the only one making threats which in reality are harmless...all website are "monitored" by the "authorities" for key words...so if it was that big of a deal you would have to make no calls). He has been babbling like this for years and hurts nobody. All his wishes are never going to cause any destruction. One day and Andrew will roll over his place of residence and that will be the last time he ever murmurs anything resembling a wish for a major storm to hit his area.


ya don't know what he e-mails it's cool the proper people will look at it all...
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1013. centex
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
It amazes me how correct this monthly tracks actually are when it comes down the line. My prediction for td 5, if it doesn't poof, is a track like that into the gulf.

Maybe correct but I wouldn't try to predict what it does after 4-5 days at this point. it's uncertan. We don't know what it's going to do in the next 4-5 days. I'm not a big fan of the stronger system the more N. While can be true is only one of many factors. Strong systems can presist west if steering currents force it.
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So far I have a few analogs for TD5 (assuming it survives, which it should):

Gustav (2008)
Dolly (2008)
Karl (2010)
Charley (2004)
Lili (2002)

With the least likely of these being Charley.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
1010. yoboi
Quoting DataNerd:





I highly doubt the the FBI (the agency which handles most minor cyber related crimes) would care about something so minor.

In fact I know they wouldn't.

There is a reason why things such as moderators, ip bans, and hard drive bans exist. Ignore the trolls and let the mods resolve it.


i have a few friends that will help me if i ask....i ask him nice to tone it down but will speak up for others people tired of someone that attacks people verbally...cyber bullying is against the law...we can all debate and thats cool...but when ya start personal attacks behind the scene not cool....
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Quoting yoboi:


i do put on ignore and next day 5 new names; gets old...will let the proper agency decide what he is violating....and there is laws about enciting people with threats...

problem is he is not making any threats (in fact, you are the only one making threats which in reality are harmless...all website are "monitored" by the "authorities" for key words...so if it was that big of a deal you would have to make no calls). He has been babbling like this for years and hurts nobody. All his wishes are never going to cause any destruction. One day and Andrew will roll over his place of residence and that will be the last time he ever murmurs anything resembling a wish for a major storm to hit his area.
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Takes NHC track then brings it up.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1006. yoboi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


She planted a giant oak tree in my house. It was totaled. But we were all ok and got to start again so it's all good now. :) Did she do a lot of damage where you're at?



was deployed to katrina was there for a couple of weeks then went back to swla few weeks later a tornado from rita hitt my house everything was gone lost everything....i lost things money could never buy...2005 was a bad yr but i just sucked it up an moved on.....
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Quoting yoboi:


i do put on ignore and next day 5 new names; gets old...will let the proper agency decide what he is violating....and there is laws about enciting people with threats...





I highly doubt the the FBI (the agency which handles most minor cyber related crimes) would care about something so minor.

In fact I know they wouldn't.

There is a reason why things such as moderators, ip bans, and hard drive bans exist. Ignore the trolls and let the mods resolve it.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
WOW the water in the GOM IS 90F look at the pink color..




That is why this thing making it to the gulf would be a bad deal.
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1003. Skyepony (Mod)
Models race on 05L. HWRF & CMC are in the lead for most accurate over the last three days as far as where. LGEM is winning intensity.



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1002. yoboi
Quoting hunkerdown:

And just what laws do you feel he has broken??? So he states he wants a cane to hit SFla??? You can't really think anyone could legally associate that with a terrorist threat do you?? If you don't like him or what he says, ignore his posts and move on. By you making the useless threats it does nothing more but to throw fuel on his fire...


i do put on ignore and next day 5 new names; gets old...will let the proper agency decide what he is violating....and there is laws about enciting people with threats...
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1001. skook
Tropical Storm Debby delivered massive losses to Pinellas beaches, USF study says

By Anna M. Phillips, Times Staff Writer
In Print: Thursday, August 2, 2012

Tropical Storm Debby swept more sand off of Pinellas County's beaches than any other storm in the past decade, according a report released Wednesday by University of South Florida researchers.

Over the course of three days in June, Debby scrubbed the county's coastline of 630,900 cubic yards of sand, enough to fill about 193 Olympic-sized swimming pools. Already, county officials have estimated that restoring the beaches to their previous state could cost $25 million.

That estimate rose even higher Wednesday as officials added $866,000 to the total, the cost of restoring Fort De Soto beach and Honeymoon Island...

Read more here Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The small trough extending to the SW of TD5 still looks to be inhibiting its inflow. Several inhibitors for the little guy tonight, including dry air and shear.



I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it hold off on getting a name until Friday.
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Quoting yoboi:



how bad was rita for ya???


She planted a giant oak tree in my house. It was totaled. But we were all ok and got to start again so it's all good now. :) Did she do a lot of damage where you're at?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting TomTaylor:
Could you post the link to that?


Let me find the exact url that this data is getting pulled from. I've been using McIDAS to put together these graphics. It looks like it's getting pulled from here:

ftp://anonymous:password@ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf

the NHC ATCF server.

EDIT: Here is the link to the data

Link
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997. emguy
Maybe a bad initial on the GFS for sure, but these things do happen. I think it's interesting that we have had nothing in the tropics to track for a while and now have a designated tropical depression out there, yet some folks are focused on what has not happenned yet in the Atlantic and is like 400 hours away from anyone. My message to folks in Florida would be to just focus on and track TD 5 for now until it makes landfall in the eastern half of the Gulf, OR the storm misses the turn and moves significantly south of Florida, makeing landfall in Central America around the souther end of Yucatan/Belize, Nicaragua and/or Hondoras.
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
It amazes me how correct this monthly tracks actually are when it comes down the line. My prediction for td 5, if it doesn't poof, is a track like that into the gulf.

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The small trough extending to the SW of TD5 still looks to be inhibiting its inflow. Several inhibitors for the little guy tonight, including dry air and shear.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
oh yeah forgot to say this with the LLCOC of TD5 being at 12.6N 51.5W this is South of the forecast plots soo if it continues W which I think it may then expect the forecast cone to shift to the S


Run my boy! its going to hit your house!

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Quoting KoritheMan:


People say this every year and it's not surprising. It's August. I would be impressed if they weren't 90F.


Downright cool by the coast tonight. :)

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
992. yoboi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well we did have that storm killing dome on top of us last year. lol



how bad was rita for ya???
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Quoting yoboi:


don't get a ban quoting him i will take the ban...a call has been made tick tock tick tock the trolls internet days are numbered...i will take the ban on this one...i know people are tired of the troll...just let me handle it....thanks for speaking up..and the call did not go to the people that own this blog..

And just what laws do you feel he has broken??? So he states he wants a cane to hit SFla??? You can't really think anyone could legally associate that with a terrorist threat do you?? If you don't like him or what he says, ignore his posts and move on. By you making the useless threats it does nothing more but to throw fuel on his fire...
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oh yeah forgot to say this with the LLCOC of TD5 being at 12.6N 51.5W this is South of the forecast plots soo if it continues W which I think it may then expect the forecast cone to shift to the S
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting EstherD:


Anyone know why they even bother to run the models out that far? Seems like there ought to be something better to do with all those cpu cycles.


Because with time, long-range predictions will improve.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Quoting Landfall2012:


Nice. Thanks for putting that into perspective for me, sir. I'd like that. Are those museums or something? Also, just for the record, logically and obviously, I do not PRAISE at all the destructive and minor loss of life that hurricanes bring, I just want them to hit here for the overwhelming excitement and adrenaline rush, man. Nothing else, nothing more. I hope you can understand that. Not to mention to relive through another Wilma like experience, that I wouldn't mind at all. A little scary but I'll live, =)


Ugh, I'm sure you drink the Rosenberg/FIU kool-aid too. Gross.
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I'm not seeing the dry air in WV. Sometimes shear happens and not predicted. There is some on N side. I'm waiting until mornings to decide how it's doing.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
WOW the water in the GOM IS 90F look at the pink color..


People say this every year and it's not surprising. It's August. I would be impressed if they weren't 90F.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Quoting DataNerd:



Got any for a good ol boy from Texas like me?


Well we did have that storm killing dome on top of us last year. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Hey all, James Reynolds will be on CNN in about 5mins, LIVE from Taiwan.

This was his last video.


Footage of torrential rain lashing Yilan region in NE Taiwan was typhoon Saola made landfall unexpectedly north of Hualien.
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Quoting DataNerd:



Got any for a good ol boy from Texas like me?


Ask Janiel. He probably has a spare.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:
Got the curtains protecting South FL from any hurricanes.




Got any for a good ol boy from Texas like me?
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980. yoboi
Quoting TomTaylor:
Could you post the link to that?


how much rain do ya get on average during elnino?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you need help fast

LOL DAM STRAIGHT oops soory forgot people are sleeping
Thank you sooo much
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting sunlinepr:
Wish the best to all here....

Good night...
see ya pr
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Call this a wishcast if you want (I do live in Louisiana after all :P), but I think TD5/Ernesto will turn more northward when it nears the Yucatan Channel next week in response to that trough over the central US. The GFS/Euro solutions into south Texas or Mexico seem to be predicated on the assumption of a weaker system.

Probably best to be conservative for now though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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