Tropical Depression 5 forms; Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan; 115° in Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:22 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

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Tropical Storm Watches are flying for much of the Lesser Antilles, as the islands await the arrival of Tropical Depression Five, which formed at 5 pm EDT today. The new depression is still fairly ragged looking, as seen on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is only on the south side of the center, due to higher wind shear on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. TD 5 has one respectable low-level spiral band on its south side, but additional spiral bands are beginning to appear, and the areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has increased markedly in the late afternoon hours. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 has a reasonably moist environment. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 5.

Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. This should allow TD to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by Thursday. NHC is giving a 27% chance that TD 5 will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, when it will be passing through the islands. The reliable computer models are not in good agreement on the future intensity of TD 5. A band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with an upper level low lies to the north of TD 5, and our most reliable model, the ECMWF, predicts that this shear will extend down into the islands on Friday and Saturday, and tear TD 5 apart. However, the almost equally reliable GFS model predicts that this band of wind shear will remain north of TD 5, and the storm will have clear sailing for the next five days, with only moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting it. At this point, we'll have to wait and see how future model runs handle the shear forecast.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Saola hitting Taiwan at 2:30 am local time August 2, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Typhoon Saola hits Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons expected to make landfall in China on Thursday. Typhoon Saola hit northern Taiwan as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds near 3 am local time on August 2, 2012. Saola is predicted to hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Thursday as a Category 1 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Korea, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday as a Tropical Storm.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in Oklahoma continued on Wednesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 115° temperature recorded in Okmulgee, Oklahoma. This is not far from Oklahoma's state temperature record of 120°, set in in Tipton on June 27, 1994. Oklahoma City has hit 110° thus far this afternoon, which is the 3rd highest temperature measured in the city since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter days were August 10 - 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 112° and 113°, respectively. Chandler, Enid, Guthrie, Norman, Chickasha, and Shawnee in Oklahoma have all hit 113° today.

Jeff Masters

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1527. TORMENTOSO83
4:27 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Anyone can tell me where can I find the dynamic and statistics computer models for tropical fenomena? Thnx
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 286
1525. FutureWx6221
2:18 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
5 is looking very unhealthy. Wait! Before everyone pounces... CDO pattern has emerged so we are definitely seeing increased organization (evidenced by unusually high raw ADT). But look at how the system is ventilating itself. Our depression is simply not breathing. Once ventilation improves, 5 should be able to ramp up nicely from where it is now, by my estimate 40-45 kts. #goernesto
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 190
1524. dogsgomoo
2:18 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting Charliesgirl:
Restocked my supply kit yesterday. I bought three bottles of wine and flashlights to find them in the dark. J/k I bought the other stuff as well.
Anyone know of any particularly tasty canned food?
Check out the chicken/salmon/tuna single serve foil pouches. Some have sauce/spices added. They store flat, are much lighter than cans, water proof, hard to puncture, and easy to clean/sanitize if exposed to most elements. They can be mixed in with other foods or eaten cold. A few of those are great to have on hand for any hurricane, bug out kit, or even just for camping. /end Billy Mays style infomercial ;)
Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 316
1523. stillwaiting
2:16 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
04' all over again imo,errieley simular pattern so far
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1521. hulazigzag
2:08 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting jrweatherman:
My parents took me to Chick Fil A for dinner last night. Wow, it was busy.
Yea I heard it was hate and bigot day at chik filet.
Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240
1520. Chiggy
2:07 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
...........................well dont relax, the long range GFS has a hurricane off the carolina's once again at the end of its long range run..we will see what happens..i dont put too much faith in long range tracks..many things change, even overnight huh


06Z 384 hr run doesn't have anything close to even a TS near Carolina coast - unless you mean one of the many ensembles!?
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
1519. hydrus
2:06 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
FIM model has T.D. 5 taking a path similar to Gilbert in 1988.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
1518. stoormfury
2:05 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
TD5 is showing signs of getting better organised. right now there is a small ulac to the sw of the system. shear has dropped which is enabling the convection to increase. the system is moving into the 55w-60w region where sst is wamer
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2675
1517. LargoFl
2:04 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting Chiggy:
Here's hoping that this thing hits somewhere on TX coast and ends up in OK and drought stricken places with a lot of rain. Perhaps some good news may come out of this...
yes i agree, no damage just alot of rain would be great
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1516. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:04 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1515. Chiggy
2:02 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Here's hoping that this thing hits somewhere on TX coast and ends up in OK and drought stricken places with a lot of rain. Perhaps some good news may come out of this...
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
1514. LargoFl
2:02 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.Yeah I remember that.It was a pretty miserable rainy day...
...........................well dont relax, the long range GFS has a hurricane off the carolina's once again at the end of its long range run..we will see what happens..i dont put too much faith in long range tracks..many things change, even overnight huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1513. GTcooliebai
2:01 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting Pocamocca:

Do you have the link to that page?
I'm surprised no one has ever asked me, Link
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1512. LargoFl
2:00 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD HEADING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1511. washingtonian115
2:00 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
.................washintonian..you have your supplies ready?
Lol.Yeah I remember that.It was a pretty miserable rainy day...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
1509. Patrap
1:59 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
U.S. Drought 2012: Half Of Nation's Counties Now Considered Disaster Areas


ST. LOUIS — Nearly 220 counties in a dozen drought-stricken states were added Wednesday to the U.S. government's list of natural disaster areas as the nation's agriculture chief unveiled new help for frustrated, cash-strapped farmers and ranchers grappling with extreme dryness and heat.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's addition of the 218 counties means that more than half of all U.S. counties – 1,584 in 32 states – have been designated primary disaster areas this growing season, the vast majority of them mired in a drought that's considered the worst in decades.

Counties in Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wyoming were included in Wednesday's announcement. The USDA uses the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor to help decide which counties to deem disaster areas, which makes farmers and ranchers eligible for federal aid, including low-interest emergency loans.

To help ease the burden on the nation's farms, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Thursday opened up 3.8 million acres of conservation land for ranchers to use for haying and grazing. Under that conservation program, farmers have been paid to take land out of production to ward against erosion and create wildlife habitat.

"The assistance announced today will help U.S. livestock producers dealing with climbing feed prices, critical shortages of hay and deteriorating pasturelands," Vilsack said.

Vilsack also said crop insurers have agreed to provide farmers facing cash-flow issues a penalty-free, 30-day grace period on premiums in 2012.

As of this week, nearly half of the nation's corn crop was rated poor to very poor, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. About 37 percent of the U.S. soybeans were lumped into that category, while nearly three-quarters of U.S. cattle acreage is in drought-affected areas, the survey showed.

The potential financial fallout in the nation's midsection appears to be intensifying. The latest weekly Mid-America Business Conditions Index, released Wednesday, showed that the ongoing drought and global economic turmoil is hurting business in nine Midwest and Plains states, boosting worries about the prospect of another recession, according to the report.

Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the index, said the drought will hurt farm income while the strengthening dollar hinders exports, meaning two of the most important positive factors in the region's economy are being undermined.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1508. GTcooliebai
1:58 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Enhanced Colors Water Vapor Loop from Rutgers:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1507. LargoFl
1:57 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting Chiggy:


WHY are you showing something from 2006??
because yesterday he was making fun of floridians for being anxious
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1506. RitaEvac
1:56 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting Chiggy:


WHY are you showing something from 2006??


trying to figure out wth kind of trough pulls a storm outta the Carribbean north in August
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1505. Clearwater1
1:56 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
MY 11AM


According to NHC, td5 may be downgraded to a weak low, and will not make it anywhere near your 55mph, maybe not even to the Islands. Nice chart though.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
1504. Tropicsweatherpr
1:56 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Looks nice.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
1503. DocBen
1:56 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
What kind of trough pulled this thing so much north outta the Caribbean?



Note how much later in the season it was. By the end of August frontal systems can cross the country and extend that far south ibto the GOM. Right now the furthest south they getting seems to be about I-40.
Member Since: May 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1502. Chiggy
1:55 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
What kind of trough pulled this thing so much north outta the Caribbean?



WHY are you showing something from 2006??
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
1501. Patrap
1:54 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
..One up, "Tink"

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1500. Stormchaser2007
1:54 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15884
1499. LargoFl
1:54 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
.................washintonian..you have your supplies ready?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1498. RitaEvac
1:53 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
What kind of trough pulled this thing so much north outta the Caribbean?

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1497. Patrap
1:53 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting thelmores:


Don't make me break out the "Flock of Seagulls" video! LOL


That would not go well wit me Breakfast here Thel.

Im not gonna worry about 05 till I see your colors and Squiggly Lines .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
1496. washingtonian115
1:53 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane:



Lol, if i lived around the gulf coast, i sure would be heading to Lowe's or home depot
would be a smart idea.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
1495. Chiggy
1:53 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
One of the very few times that majority of the models are in agreement this far out - 12Z models of today!

Link
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
1494. DookiePBC
1:53 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where'd everyone go?.Out to the hardware store to get supplies in case future Ernesto comes their way?


I was doing what I normally do when there is anything "invest level or greater" with at least one model showing it getting within 100 miles of South Florida...I was outside running around in circles, flailing my arms and screaming. I feel better now though.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
1493. LargoFl
1:52 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Here it comes...

.still has to pull itself together,we will have a week watching this i think,gee alot of area's sure could use its rain and possible lowering of temps huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1492. mcluvincane
1:52 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where'd everyone go?.Out to the hardware store to get supplies in case future Ernesto comes their way?



Lol, if i lived around the gulf coast, i sure would be heading to Lowe's or home depot
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
1491. GeoffreyWPB
1:50 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Here it comes...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
1490. Articuno
1:49 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2383
1489. washingtonian115
1:49 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Where'd everyone go?.Out to the hardware store to get supplies in case future Ernesto comes their way?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
1488. tatoprweather
1:48 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
The wave approaching 35W is starting to show some convection this morning. It came off Africa several days ago showing a nice circulation. Does the environment around is favorable for development of this one?
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
1487. LargoFl
1:47 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
1486. mcluvincane
1:45 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
TD 5 looking pretty good ATM
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
1485. PlazaRed
1:43 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting:- 1468. Neapolitan

"All-time record highs are predicted for several parts of Oklahoma today, including Oklahoma City itself. It remains to be seen, of course, whether they pan out..."

At 116.5/F you are trying to operate at 18/F above your body temp and about 12/F above the highest body temp you could probably ever have be able to survive to tell the tale of how bad it was.
Anybody in that type of heat, get a spray of the type that's used on plants and fill it with water and spray your self and anybody near you especially small children.
The evaporation of the water from the skin surface will cool you down.
Avoid all kinds of physical work if at all possible and fill the bathtub, if you have one with water to get into if you feel faint. Ice on the back of the neck will help also. Don't go outside if at all avoidable, that wind will dry you to a husk.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
1484. SLU
1:41 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Link

36mph winds at 14.5n 53w
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5063
1483. hydrus
1:41 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting StormJunkie:
I'm not a troll...Just a spammer...

Forecasting tools
neatly organized on one page.
I dig your page and use it often.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
1482. GeorgiaStormz
1:41 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
hello boys and girls
seems the models are aiming for a gap split this morning, and now are tyring to sen florence our way too..
must be 2012 or something :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9726
1481. hulakai
1:40 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

climatology suggests that this storm will either fizzle in the Carib or go North and West (mostly fish except Dennis 1981) using tropical storms in this area in August
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
1477. Neapolitan
1:33 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting jrweatherman:


Call me crazy, but it would seriously gross me out if I see 2 guys making out tomorrow in front of Chick Fil A.
Oh, I won't call you crazy. Just a bit immature and insensitive--and way off-topic.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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