Disturbance 99L more organized; record melting in Austrian Alps

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 11°N 47°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is showing increasing organization, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression today or tomorrow as it moves westward at 15 - 20 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has two respectable low-level spiral bands, one to the north and one to the south, and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center. The thunderstorm activity has not changed much in intensity this morning. A well-defined surface circulation is not evident on satellite images, but last night's 8:30 pm EDT pass from the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated center with light winds had formed. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara is not present in large quantities over the central tropical Atlantic. WInd shear over the disturbance has increased some since Tuesday, and is now at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance has gained a bit of latitude and is now at 11°N, which will help it leverage the Earth's spin more to acquire its own spin. These conditions are probably sufficient for 99L to become Tropical Depression Five, with Thursday being the most likely day for this to happen. However, the reliable computer models are not very eager to develop 99L, and none show it becoming a hurricane over the next five days. This is probably because the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic is unusually stable for this time of year (Figure 2), with large-scale areas of dry, sinking air present. Climatologically, we see very few Cape Verdes-type hurricanes forming near the Lesser Antilles Islands this early in August, and I expect 99L will struggle at times over the next few days. This is particularly likely if 99L goes north of 13°N, where a band a high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies. At 8 am Wednesday, NHC gave 99L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain, but a track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean is the most popular solution from the models.


Figure 3. Typhoon Saola (bottom) and Typhoon Damrey (top) perform a pincer maneuver on Shanghai, China in this MODIS photo from NASA's Terra satellite taken at 02 UTC August 1, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Two typhoons headed towards China
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons headed towards China. The more dangerous of the two is Category 2 Typhoon Saola, which is predicted to skirt the northern coast of Taiwan and hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Friday as a Category 3 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Japan, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday at Category 1 strength.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in America's heartland continued on Tuesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 113° temperature recorded in Chandler, Oklahoma. A close second: Tulsa hit 112°, just 3° below the city's all-time high of 115° set on August 10, 1936. The low temperature in Tulsa was 88° Tuesday morning, tying the record for warmest low temperature in city history set just the previous day. Six locations in Oklahoma hit 112° or hotter Tuesday, and the forecast calls for highs near 112° again today over portions of Oklahoma.

Extreme dryness in the Central U.S.
A few final tallies for July precipitation are in, and several U.S. cities in the heart of the drought region set new records for driest July:

Joplin, MO: 0.00" (ties record set in 1946)
Springfield, MO: 0.32" (previous record 0.33" in 1953)
Sioux Falls, SD: 0.24" (previous record, 0.24" in 1947, normal is 3.09")

Record early snow melt in the Austrian Alps
One of the longest meteorological data records at high altitude comes from Sonnblick, Austria, on a mountaintop in the Alps with an elevation of 3106 meters (10,200 feet.) The observatory typically sees maximum snow depths of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet) during winter. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the snow had never completely melted at Sonnblick until the summer of 1992. Complete snow melt did not happen again until August 12, 2003, and has happened an average of once every two years since then--but always in September. Yesterday, on July 31, the snow completely melted at Sonnblick, the earliest melting since record keeping began in 1886. It's been an exceptionally hot summer in Austria, which experienced its 6th warmest June since record keeping began in 1767. Sonnblick Observatory recorded its all-time warmest temperature of 15.3°C (60°F) on June 30. Vienna hit 37.7°C (100°F) that day--the hottest temperature ever measured in June in Austria. Note that the two mountains in the Alps with long climate records, Saentis in Switzerland and Zugspitze in Germany, beat their records for earliest melting last year in 2011 (Saentis beat the previous record of 2003, and Zugspitze tied the record set in 2003.)


Figure 4. The Sonnblick Observatory in Austria on April 26, 2010. Image credit: Michael Staudinger.

Jeff Masters

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1536. nofailsafe
3:33 AM GMT on August 02, 2012
00Z GFS has started.

500mb Vorticity

Initialization:

Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
1534. seer2012
12:38 AM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting Articuno:
I predict this will go through Jamaica and the Western Tip of Cuba.

EDIT: Meant Western.
Quoting Articuno:
I predict this will go through Jamaica and the Western Tip of Cuba.

EDIT: Meant Western.
yes
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
1533. HurricaneHunterJoe
12:19 AM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
all of the Computer Model all going to go up to S FL at 8PM


Why do you say that?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
1532. HurricaneHunterJoe
12:11 AM GMT on August 02, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


That is the T Wave by DR. NAM has been showing weak development for a couple days now. Could be a fly in the ointment per-se in eroding the western flank of the Atl-Ridge and allowing a NW to N turn in time with TD5.



Sounds good, is it viable that a weak T Wave can do that to the High?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
1531. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:53 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting ackee:
I am the huge fan of THE Ecmwf ,however this seasons it just seem like The Gfs is leading the other models by far Debby was good example of this and if the GFS forcast pan out for pre EARNESTO it would be another conformation as to which model is on top this seasons


I remember about a week ago looking at the extended GFS and it had a TS/Minimal Hurricane in close proximity to the SW Florida coast. Like it did with Debby,it had Debby at long ranges and then lost it,only to have it return to the location it was in before. Not saying it is going to happen again,but food for thought.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
1530. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:40 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane:
What happened to the el nino trade winds that were supposed to rip thus thing apart once it got into the Caribbean



Ummmmm...........it hasn't made it to the Caribbean yet?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
1529. DataNerd
11:34 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting nofailsafe:
Be advised, 18Z GFS is running.

150hr 500mbar vorticity:




Still showing the scenario from earlier wrt the ULL enhancing the outflow pattern.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1528. StormJunkie
10:49 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Not that any of it really matters cause it's all way out there...

But GFS has it slamming the Yuc Pen and also shows a large system in the middle of the Atlantic at the end of the run.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1527. TomTaylor
10:35 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
x
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1526. stormchaser19
10:28 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
Looking at short term intensity, the NHC has TD5 becoming a 65 MPH tropical storm before it enters the Caribbean. I'm a little surprised by this forecast considering their conservative background. Our most reliable global models all show a weak tropical storm at this point. Even the aggressive CMC, HWRF, and GFDL only show a moderate TS (40-45 knots) at this point. We'll see how that forecast turns out, personally I'm not expecting a 65 MPH tropical storm to enter the Caribbean, though it is certainly possible.



INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH


Yeah, and the GFS is develops the system but when is getting out of carribean,the HWRF is my guiadence rigth now...and i think will have a shot about 12-24 hours before reaches the windward island, right now the shear in the north is stopping any intensification
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
1525. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:28 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
05L/TD/E/CX
MARK
11.95N/48.18W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
1524. nofailsafe
10:27 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Be advised, 18Z GFS is running.

150hr 500mbar vorticity:

Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 946
1523. Hurricanes305
10:25 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
305........Fact or a guess 305?


???
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1522. caribbeantracker01
10:24 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Listen to me everyone open this Link and turn on tropical forecast points and look at the deepest convection!!!
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
1521. allancalderini
10:23 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:
the ensembles birng this to CA that meand it would be weaker to have that track right?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
1520. HurricaneDean07
10:23 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"Actually", it is expected to turn back towards the west tonight if it hasn't already. It should end up in the West Caribbean in 5 days.

It appears it has already began the bend back toward the west.
+2
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1519. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:23 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1518. Hurricanes305
10:21 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Expect the next flare-up of convection to the West of the Center in the next few hours.


Yea its possible it could be enough to just slightly cover the northern part of the center.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1517. HurricaneDean07
10:21 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting bajelayman2:
NHC forcast track has TD5 centre passing 60miles to the N of Barbados Friday evening.

but the GFS has the centre passing bang on the South coast of Barbados.

While the NHC has a great track record in the past several years, I would not discount the GFS.

However, as strengthening occurs and it pulls from ITCZ, it naturally will rise, so the NHC must have taken that inot account.

Question is, does the GFS see something that the rest do not?

The NHC stated that theyre considering the GFS forecast, much more than the other models- at this point.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1516. caribbeantracker01
10:21 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting bajelayman2:
NHC forcast track has TD5 centre passing 60miles to the N of Barbados Friday evening.

but the GFS has the centre passing bang on the South coast of Barbados.

While the NHC has a great track record in the past several years, I would not discount the GFS.

However, as strengthening occurs and it pulls from ITCZ, it naturally will rise, so the NHC must have taken that inot account.

Question is, does the GFS see something that the rest do not?
center relocation!
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
1515. PalmBeachWeather
10:20 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Actually, based on the wnw movement if it continues it will go over or just north of PR and the Islands.
305........Fact or a guess 305?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
1514. Stormchaser121
10:20 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
1513. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:19 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Actually, based on the wnw movement if it continues it will go over or just north of PR and the Islands.

"Actually", it is expected to turn back towards the west tonight if it hasn't already. It should end up in the West Caribbean in 5 days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
1512. bajelayman2
10:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
NHC forcast track has TD5 centre passing 60miles to the N of Barbados Friday evening.

but the GFS has the centre passing bang on the South coast of Barbados.

While the NHC has a great track record in the past several years, I would not discount the GFS.

However, as strengthening occurs and it pulls from ITCZ, it naturally will rise, so the NHC must have taken that inot account.

Question is, does the GFS see something that the rest do not?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
1511. Tazmanian
10:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
wind shear is 30kt right now on TD 5


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
1510. TomTaylor
10:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Expect the next flare-up of convection to the West of the Center in the next few hours.
It's already occurring lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1509. nigel20
10:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Barbados Met Service

HERE IS ADVISORY #1 FOR BARBADOS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5

Issued by

The Barbados Meteorological Services

at 5:00 p.m on Wednesday, 1st August, 2012.


THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5.

��A TROPICAL STORM-WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE ISLAND, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 hours.

AT 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1130 KM TO EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...

ON THIS PRESENT TRACK THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF BARBADOS EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESEER ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY EVENING.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

REGARDLESS OF THE FACT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE CENTER WE STILL ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS ACROSS BARBADOS.

SEAS...ABOVE-NORMAL SWELLS WILL RESULT BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF BARBADOS.


REPEATING THE 5:00 PM POSITION...12.2 N..49.0 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 5:00 A.M TOMORROW.



H.LOVELL
Director (Ag) B.M.S


Meteorologist: Hampden Lovell
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
1508. Hurricanes305
10:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Its not going to south florida.


Actually, based on the wnw movement if it continues it will go over or just north of PR and the Islands.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1507. HurricaneDean07
10:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Models are too far South.

Not liking the possible "Gulf Idea" gro?
lol
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1506. PalmBeachWeather
10:17 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Severe thunderstorm warning here in Palm Beach county...... Looks pretty scary to my west...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
1505. Grothar
10:17 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Grothar-

You believe the models will go northward?


Expect the next flare-up of convection to the West of the Center in the next few hours.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1504. Grothar
10:15 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting caribbeantracker01:

do you notice the center at the location it is said to be?


Yes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1503. ncstorm
10:15 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
the 18z Nogaps got a two fer one special going on..TD 05 heading to the east coast and another storm heading into the GOM..still running



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
1502. TomTaylor
10:15 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Looking at short term intensity, the NHC has TD5 becoming a 65 MPH tropical storm before it enters the Caribbean. I'm a little surprised by this forecast considering their conservative background. Our most reliable global models all show a weak tropical storm at this point. Even the aggressive CMC, HWRF, and GFDL only show a moderate TS (40-45 knots) at this point. We'll see how that forecast turns out, personally I'm not expecting a 65 MPH tropical storm to enter the Caribbean, though it is certainly possible.



INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1501. HurricaneDean07
10:14 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. TD 5 go to S FL how big will it be??
A. TD
B. TS
c. CAT 1
D. CAT 2
E. CAT 3
F. CAT 4
G. CAT 5
H. CAT 6 lol jk

Its not going to south florida.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1500. rmbjoe1954
10:14 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Models are too far South.


Grothar-

You believe the models will go northward?
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1439
1499. stormchaser19
10:13 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
1498. TomTaylor
10:13 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lack of divergence is probably part of its issue, but you can see the appearance is elongated to the northeast now. It didn't have that appearance this morning. Outflow from convection in front of the storm is also imparting a bit of shear. Believe it's going to have these hurdles until it hits the islands at least. Slow strengthening is a good call until that point.

Yep, the outflow is oriented that way because of the ULL to the north. But yeah, I'd agree on slow intensification for now, I'm a little surprised by the NHC's intensity forecast for the next 48hrs.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1497. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:12 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Models are too far South.


do you think they will listen to people like us

naw but they will learn
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
1496. caribbeantracker01
10:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Models are too far South.

do you notice the center at the location it is said to be?
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
1495. Articuno
10:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
I predict this will go through Jamaica and the Western Tip of Cuba.

EDIT: Meant Western.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
1494. washingtonian115
10:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Models are too far South.
Yo Gro.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
1493. gulfbreeze
10:10 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
When will the H-Hunter plane go in?
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 931
1492. Grothar
10:10 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Models are too far South.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1491. MississippiWx
10:10 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Out for a while.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1490. Bluestorm5
10:08 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...

Looks like the usual bunch of B.S-casters are out this evening.

I'll be back when it's bed time for the kiddies.
No kidding...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8074
1489. MississippiWx
10:08 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
Shear is part of it. TPW also shows a fair amount of dry air to the north and ahead of the depression. That same ULL causing the shear is also preventing significant outflow or divergence to the NW which can be seen on water vapor loops.


Lack of divergence is probably part of its issue, but you can see the appearance is elongated to the northeast now. It didn't have that appearance this morning. Outflow from convection in front of the storm is also imparting a bit of shear. Believe it's going to have these hurdles until it hits the islands at least. Slow strengthening is a good call until that point.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1488. Stormchaser2007
10:06 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Wow...

Looks like the usual bunch of B.S-casters are out this evening.

I'll be back when it's bed time for the kiddies.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1487. DataNerd
10:05 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting HurrikanEB:
If you make the assumption that the four record pace storms earlier this month were just a coincidence, then this season is pretty much on pace with 2006.

That year the number 4 storm (Chris) lasted from July 31 - August 5th. Debby didn't form for another three weeks... the only difference is that we're one storm up right now due to the record start, but otherwise they're pretty similar so far and in the final season forecast.



I would tend to agree with this. Watched the 06 season very carefully myself as 2005 had really traumatized alot of us on the gulf coast.

That season was a nightmare, so we were very concerned in early 06, but as the shear pattern became more well developed and there was a lack of african waves, we calmed down.

Differences here:

1. High pressure system pattern is far stronger and more well established over the U.S. mainland.
2. Pattern favors low trade wind based shear over the Carribean despite it being an el nino year.
3. SSTs are warmer.
4. ITCZ/African waves are more active by far.

So its similar but not exactly the same. 2006 was quite tame.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1486. Tropicsweatherpr
10:05 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
Shear is part of it. TPW also shows a fair amount of dry air to the north and ahead of the depression. That same ULL causing the shear is also preventing significant outflow or divergence to the NW which can be seen on water vapor loops.


Remember that is Dmin time.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14883

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