Disturbance 99L more organized; record melting in Austrian Alps

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 11°N 47°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is showing increasing organization, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression today or tomorrow as it moves westward at 15 - 20 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has two respectable low-level spiral bands, one to the north and one to the south, and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center. The thunderstorm activity has not changed much in intensity this morning. A well-defined surface circulation is not evident on satellite images, but last night's 8:30 pm EDT pass from the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated center with light winds had formed. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara is not present in large quantities over the central tropical Atlantic. WInd shear over the disturbance has increased some since Tuesday, and is now at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance has gained a bit of latitude and is now at 11°N, which will help it leverage the Earth's spin more to acquire its own spin. These conditions are probably sufficient for 99L to become Tropical Depression Five, with Thursday being the most likely day for this to happen. However, the reliable computer models are not very eager to develop 99L, and none show it becoming a hurricane over the next five days. This is probably because the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic is unusually stable for this time of year (Figure 2), with large-scale areas of dry, sinking air present. Climatologically, we see very few Cape Verdes-type hurricanes forming near the Lesser Antilles Islands this early in August, and I expect 99L will struggle at times over the next few days. This is particularly likely if 99L goes north of 13°N, where a band a high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies. At 8 am Wednesday, NHC gave 99L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain, but a track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean is the most popular solution from the models.


Figure 3. Typhoon Saola (bottom) and Typhoon Damrey (top) perform a pincer maneuver on Shanghai, China in this MODIS photo from NASA's Terra satellite taken at 02 UTC August 1, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Two typhoons headed towards China
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons headed towards China. The more dangerous of the two is Category 2 Typhoon Saola, which is predicted to skirt the northern coast of Taiwan and hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Friday as a Category 3 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Japan, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday at Category 1 strength.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in America's heartland continued on Tuesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 113° temperature recorded in Chandler, Oklahoma. A close second: Tulsa hit 112°, just 3° below the city's all-time high of 115° set on August 10, 1936. The low temperature in Tulsa was 88° Tuesday morning, tying the record for warmest low temperature in city history set just the previous day. Six locations in Oklahoma hit 112° or hotter Tuesday, and the forecast calls for highs near 112° again today over portions of Oklahoma.

Extreme dryness in the Central U.S.
A few final tallies for July precipitation are in, and several U.S. cities in the heart of the drought region set new records for driest July:

Joplin, MO: 0.00" (ties record set in 1946)
Springfield, MO: 0.32" (previous record 0.33" in 1953)
Sioux Falls, SD: 0.24" (previous record, 0.24" in 1947, normal is 3.09")

Record early snow melt in the Austrian Alps
One of the longest meteorological data records at high altitude comes from Sonnblick, Austria, on a mountaintop in the Alps with an elevation of 3106 meters (10,200 feet.) The observatory typically sees maximum snow depths of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet) during winter. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the snow had never completely melted at Sonnblick until the summer of 1992. Complete snow melt did not happen again until August 12, 2003, and has happened an average of once every two years since then--but always in September. Yesterday, on July 31, the snow completely melted at Sonnblick, the earliest melting since record keeping began in 1886. It's been an exceptionally hot summer in Austria, which experienced its 6th warmest June since record keeping began in 1767. Sonnblick Observatory recorded its all-time warmest temperature of 15.3°C (60°F) on June 30. Vienna hit 37.7°C (100°F) that day--the hottest temperature ever measured in June in Austria. Note that the two mountains in the Alps with long climate records, Saentis in Switzerland and Zugspitze in Germany, beat their records for earliest melting last year in 2011 (Saentis beat the previous record of 2003, and Zugspitze tied the record set in 2003.)


Figure 4. The Sonnblick Observatory in Austria on April 26, 2010. Image credit: Michael Staudinger.

Jeff Masters

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1186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
X
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
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NHC is forecasting TD5 to become a Hurricane at the end of the forecast period.

About time we get a good Caribbean cruiser, haven't seen one since 2007. Though the idea of a intensifying Category 1 hurricane going through all that TCHP makes me shutter.
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Quoting Grothar:
A little more North on this latest run.



Looks like Irene.... But at this point who knows.
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OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/ 203638.shtml?5-daynl#contents
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1178. Patrap
...A Royal Post,,how quaint

AL992012 - INVEST

2km Natural Color Imagery

Green Estimated
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.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 1
Location: 12.2°N 49.0°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

000
WTNT25 KNHC 012036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 49.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 49.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Exhibit C:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 1
Location: 12.2°N 49.0°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It's definitely possible. Don't get us wrong when we say the models aren't showing that yet. All I'm saying is that the GFS isn't showing a curve into the Central Gulf because of the break not being far enough south. A lot can change and it could die altogether. I'm just saying it's a little off the rocker to start claiming where a storm is going in 8-10 days.
your right about one thing anything can happen. lets use basic knowledge shall we? if Ernesto is a hurricane in the W.carribean and the trough weakens the bermuda high, would Ernesto move WEST into mexico OR move NORTHWEST around the high into the gulf? the Euro model shows a weakness and eventually takes ernesto in texas. your thoughts?
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That will never change unless NHC decides to blog advisories, updates every satellite frame!
Lol you are right. I mean people have the right to criticize, and we should question the NHC. I should have worded my statement differently. More like let's remember the NHC does know what they are doing.
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Prepare for the first advisory to be posted about 500 times.
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Quoting windshear1993:
wow i have a strong feeling this season is gonna be dead


It kinda shows through your handle ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Pretty confident myself in a track somewhere around Jamaica. From that point either the trough gets it and TD5 turns NW to N or it misses and TD5 continues off to the WNW.
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1168. Grothar
A little more North on this latest run.

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wow i have a strong feeling this season is gonna be dead
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Thanks Stormjunkie
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It's definitely possible. Don't get us wrong when we say the models aren't showing that yet. All I'm saying is that the GFS isn't showing a curve into the Central Gulf because of the break not being far enough south. A lot can change and it could die altogether. I'm just saying it's a little off the rocker to start claiming where a storm is going in 8-10 days.
Where were you during the recurring discussions about the farmer's almanac's predictions for this year?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting ecupirate:


Give it 12 hours and people will be criticizing that it should be a TS, or Hurricane, or CAT 2 etc....

It never ends


Lol. Possibly.

And boooooo ECU, go Southern Miss!
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Quoting 19N81W:
where did you see that they have called it td 5?


If found it! Click Here
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Quoting 19N81W:
where did you see that they have called it td 5?

Exhibit A:
AL, 05, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M

Exhibit B:
Link
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The Invest to Tropical Storm trend has been broken, lol.
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1159. ncstorm
Quoting ecupirate:


Give it 12 hours and people will be criticizing that it should be a TS, or Hurricane, or CAT 2 etc....

It never ends


I just had to repost..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Ok think what you want but Irene was supposed to go to FL then ended up in NC. You never know but my best guess this goes up the C or E Gulf. New Orleans to FL panhandle. Just so you people know that is not where I live so that isn't a wishcast but it's factscast. That's my Tidbit.


It's definitely possible. Don't get us wrong when we say the models aren't showing that yet. All I'm saying is that the GFS isn't showing a curve into the Central Gulf because of the break not being far enough south. A lot can change and it could die altogether. I'm just saying it's a little off the rocker to start claiming where a storm is going in 8-10 days.
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wait at 5pm NHC will declare td5?
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Center definitely looks covered by clouds/convection.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1155. Patrap
Quoting Neapolitan:
And away we go...

AL, 05, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M
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Quoting barbadosjulie:
Can someone post the navy site for me please.


Navy sites are under imagery here. And most of the model and other data sites.
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Quoting jeffs713:

I criticize your choice of criticisms.


How critical of you!
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Can someone post the navy site for me please.
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1151. 19N81W
where did you see that they have called it td 5?
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1150. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest99

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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Quoting 19N81W:
ya i see you guys saying that.....it hasnt updated on the nhc page?

It was renumbered on the ATCF site...The official advisory will be up between 4:30 PM EDT and 5:00 PM EDT. Probably more towards the top of the hour as they have to issue tropical cyclone advisories for the Windward and Leeward Islands.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
1148. afj3

Quoting wxchaser97:

5pm EDT and they should be interesting for sure.
Just a few minutes away! Thanks so much!
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So TD5 is off to the races
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Can we please stop criticizing the experts now on their choice of when to classify things?


That will never change unless NHC decides to blog advisories, updates every satellite frame!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Ok think what you want but Irene was supposed to go to FL then ended up in NC. You never know but my best guess this goes up the C or E Gulf. New Orleans to FL panhandle. Just so you people know that is not where I live so that isn't a wishcast but it's factscast. That's my Tidbit.


That's not that bad of a call, I could see that
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Quoting 19N81W:
ya i see you guys saying that.....it hasnt updated on the nhc page?


Renumber always happens first. It will be on the NHC page in about 20 minutes. It is the best it has looked yet anyway.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


No. With all due respect, I can criticize when I feel necessary. It's unhealthy to never be criticized (not like the NHC hears me, but you get my drift).

I criticize your choice of criticisms.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...I highly doubt that.


A track towards florida does not seem probable with ridge to its north but i'd also mention the canadian model till now has been correct.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Can we please stop criticizing the experts now on their choice of when to classify things?


No. With all due respect, I can criticize when I feel necessary. It's unhealthy to never be criticized (not like the NHC hears me, but you get my drift).
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1140. 19N81W
ya i see you guys saying that.....it hasnt updated on the nhc page?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...I highly doubt that.


Ok think what you want but Irene was supposed to go to FL then ended up in NC. You never know but my best guess this goes up the C or E Gulf. New Orleans to FL panhandle. Just so you people know that is not where I live so that isn't a wishcast but it's factscast. That's my Tidbit.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Can we please stop criticizing the experts now on their choice of when to classify things?


Give it 12 hours and people will be criticizing that it should be a TS, or Hurricane, or CAT 2 etc....

It never ends
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Spears huh?? Well we maybe right this time around with TD 5!!
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What a difference a few hours make. Pre-Ernesto is very persistent and seems to be back on track after some convection loss earlier in the day. Assuming Ernesto does form from this CV wave, the next question (per the historical climatology) is whether we will get an early "cluster" of CV storms over the next 5 weeks, or, whether this storm is an early August anomaly and there will be a break in the action until the late-August/early-September period.

Starting to look, at this point, like a possible unfavorable steering pattern going into August that favors these types of trajectories as metioned by Dr. M a few days ago as opposed to fish storms for the time being. Not good if this general AB-High pattern continues in the next 4-6 weeks.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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