Disturbance 99L more organized; record melting in Austrian Alps

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 11°N 47°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is showing increasing organization, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression today or tomorrow as it moves westward at 15 - 20 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has two respectable low-level spiral bands, one to the north and one to the south, and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center. The thunderstorm activity has not changed much in intensity this morning. A well-defined surface circulation is not evident on satellite images, but last night's 8:30 pm EDT pass from the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated center with light winds had formed. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara is not present in large quantities over the central tropical Atlantic. WInd shear over the disturbance has increased some since Tuesday, and is now at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance has gained a bit of latitude and is now at 11°N, which will help it leverage the Earth's spin more to acquire its own spin. These conditions are probably sufficient for 99L to become Tropical Depression Five, with Thursday being the most likely day for this to happen. However, the reliable computer models are not very eager to develop 99L, and none show it becoming a hurricane over the next five days. This is probably because the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic is unusually stable for this time of year (Figure 2), with large-scale areas of dry, sinking air present. Climatologically, we see very few Cape Verdes-type hurricanes forming near the Lesser Antilles Islands this early in August, and I expect 99L will struggle at times over the next few days. This is particularly likely if 99L goes north of 13°N, where a band a high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies. At 8 am Wednesday, NHC gave 99L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain, but a track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean is the most popular solution from the models.


Figure 3. Typhoon Saola (bottom) and Typhoon Damrey (top) perform a pincer maneuver on Shanghai, China in this MODIS photo from NASA's Terra satellite taken at 02 UTC August 1, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Two typhoons headed towards China
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons headed towards China. The more dangerous of the two is Category 2 Typhoon Saola, which is predicted to skirt the northern coast of Taiwan and hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Friday as a Category 3 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Japan, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday at Category 1 strength.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in America's heartland continued on Tuesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 113° temperature recorded in Chandler, Oklahoma. A close second: Tulsa hit 112°, just 3° below the city's all-time high of 115° set on August 10, 1936. The low temperature in Tulsa was 88° Tuesday morning, tying the record for warmest low temperature in city history set just the previous day. Six locations in Oklahoma hit 112° or hotter Tuesday, and the forecast calls for highs near 112° again today over portions of Oklahoma.

Extreme dryness in the Central U.S.
A few final tallies for July precipitation are in, and several U.S. cities in the heart of the drought region set new records for driest July:

Joplin, MO: 0.00" (ties record set in 1946)
Springfield, MO: 0.32" (previous record 0.33" in 1953)
Sioux Falls, SD: 0.24" (previous record, 0.24" in 1947, normal is 3.09")

Record early snow melt in the Austrian Alps
One of the longest meteorological data records at high altitude comes from Sonnblick, Austria, on a mountaintop in the Alps with an elevation of 3106 meters (10,200 feet.) The observatory typically sees maximum snow depths of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet) during winter. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the snow had never completely melted at Sonnblick until the summer of 1992. Complete snow melt did not happen again until August 12, 2003, and has happened an average of once every two years since then--but always in September. Yesterday, on July 31, the snow completely melted at Sonnblick, the earliest melting since record keeping began in 1886. It's been an exceptionally hot summer in Austria, which experienced its 6th warmest June since record keeping began in 1767. Sonnblick Observatory recorded its all-time warmest temperature of 15.3°C (60°F) on June 30. Vienna hit 37.7°C (100°F) that day--the hottest temperature ever measured in June in Austria. Note that the two mountains in the Alps with long climate records, Saentis in Switzerland and Zugspitze in Germany, beat their records for earliest melting last year in 2011 (Saentis beat the previous record of 2003, and Zugspitze tied the record set in 2003.)


Figure 4. The Sonnblick Observatory in Austria on April 26, 2010. Image credit: Michael Staudinger.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011453
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-075



1. SUSPECT AREA.....APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-

A. 02/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST

C. 02/1530Z

D. 12.4N 54.4W

E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2030Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-

A. 03/0600, 1200Z

B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE

C. 03/0400Z

D. 13.0N 57.5W

E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXED.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


Boy I tell ya this they want to keep a close "Eye" on this one don't they....
Quoting MississippiWx:
Hey, StormTracker. I figured you would like this. From the NWS Mobile, AL office:

THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE ATTEMPTING TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW STRONG THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
DID NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS AND CONTINUED 30-40 POPS EACH DAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE NO IMPACT OVER US THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN BY THE
MIDDLE-END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ULTIMATE DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF/SE STATE LATE
NEXT WEEK.
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR. 34/JFB
and I "Donot" like the way they say Yucatan by Mid to late next week :o(
just Saying>>>>

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Peak DMIN now over TD5.

IMO, if it has a good DMAX, it could become Tropical Storm Ernesto tomorrow at 11am.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mother Nature knew it was their special day and wanted to send them a gift.
Lol.That's no damn gift!.Jamaica and hurricanes don't get along XD.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Well I can say I now have the discussion memorized, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
1381. TomTaylor 5:28 PM EDT on August 01, 2012

Which is why NHC sends up the Gulfstream during crunch time to feed more updated upper level feature data to the models for final track adjustments closer to landfall.
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1431. SLU
Quoting pottery:

That would be some damper to the Party, man !


Such is life in "paradise"
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's one very skinny cone 4-5 days out. The NHC is pretty certain on track here...the uncertainty is intensity, as always.


The problem with that is... intensity of a storm influences its track. If they are completely unsure about intensity, I don't know how they can be so confident in its track. I am surprised they didn't take a conservative route and at least make the cone a bit wider.

For days several people have been saying anything that enters the Caribbean is going to die... the NHC forecast seems to show that they believe otherwise.

Why do people think this storm will die in the Caribbean, OR, what has changed so that TD 5 is no longer expected to weaken/die there?
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Quoting SLU:
A hurricane on the 50th anniversary of independence for Jamaica?

Mother Nature knew it was their special day and wanted to send them a gift.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31437
000
WTNT45 KNHC 012044
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER
ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1427. Patrap
Remember we have the X Factor to consider, this is not 2002's Atmosphere, nor our Parents atmosphere from 30 years ago. This is the Mo Latent Heat. mo WV atmosphere courtesy of well, u know.

: (
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If this makes it to the West Caribbean like forecast, I don't see anything less than a Category 2 out of it.
I agree with that statement, my track/intensity forecast isn't as off as I thought it might be.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Well I am a bit surprised but I guess I shouldn't be.



I thought we'd see a td within 36 hours and that was yesterday, but it got organized a bit quicker so we have a td.

IMO this may bode well because its now on a more wnw motion which will take it into a higher shear environment, add to that if it was deepen anytime between now and then we might get even more movement northward and that would put it over cuba which would probably ruin it.


We will have to see where it goes at this point, and whether it even holds together. Could end up getting ripped to shreds by the shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
850vort is increasing in the Bahama's today. Definitely worth a lazy eye.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
1423. nigel20
Quoting SLU:
A hurricane on the 50th anniversary of independence for Jamaica?

That would not be good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Pottery.Hows the weather?.Have you been to the beach today?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Half of US counties deemed 'natural disaster areas'

By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

Just over half of the counties in the U.S. are now labeled "natural disaster areas" after the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday added 218 counties in 12 states to the list.
With drought drying up food crops and animal feedstock, the USDA also said it was allowing haying and grazing on 3.8 million protected acres, many of them wetlands, and that it had received assurances from insurers that they would forgo interest payments on unpaid farm loans for up to 30 days.

"The assistance announced today will help U.S. livestock producers dealing with climbing feed prices, critical shortages of hay and deteriorating pasturelands," Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a statement announcing the moves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Pottery & Kman~ How you all doing? So I know it's early but what's your opinion of the tropical wave? Is the winds in the Caribbean to high for it to make it?

sheri


Hi there, long time no see. Since the system has been classified well in advance of entering the Caribbean it should do okay while passing through the eastern part of the basin. The opportunity for real intensification will come from 70 west and beyond
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1419. cg2916
Wow, that was fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1418. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011453
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-075



1. SUSPECT AREA.....APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-

A. 02/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST

C. 02/1530Z

D. 12.4N 54.4W

E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2030Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-

A. 03/0600, 1200Z

B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE

C. 03/0400Z

D. 13.0N 57.5W

E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXED.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting kmanislander:


Agreed.

I agree as well
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10998
1416. pottery
Quoting SLU:
A hurricane on the 50th anniversary of independence for Jamaica?

That would be some damper to the Party, man !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CENTER RELOCATION!! lol i believe that the gfs is right once more and a southern track is becomming more likely basd on the steering patterns the central atlantic has we shall see also tomorrow the hurricane hunter will be investigating td5
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1414. SLU
A hurricane on the 50th anniversary of independence for Jamaica?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1413. ncstorm
Quoting EricSFL:

Joe Bastardi or Justin Beiber?


Bieber of course..LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14434
1412. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Typhoon "GENER" has maintained its strength as it made landfall over northeastern Taiwan

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Gener (Saola) located at 24.6°N 121.8°E or 405 km north of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts up to 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
=========================

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Typhoon "GENER" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains and moderate to strong winds over Luzon and western Visayas.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to torrential (10-35 mm per hour) within the 800 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to the combined effect of Typhoon "GENER" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 am today.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If this makes it to the West Caribbean like forecast, I don't see anything less than a Category 2 out of it.


Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1410. Patrap
Meanwhile..the former Ala MCS is getting Comfy n Tepid SST's.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
1409. russm1
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Blog overload???


No, just TWC messing with us.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Nah. :)
XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey, StormTracker. I figured you would like this. From the NWS Mobile, AL office:

THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE ATTEMPTING TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW STRONG THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
DID NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS AND CONTINUED 30-40 POPS EACH DAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE NO IMPACT OVER US THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN BY THE
MIDDLE-END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ULTIMATE DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF/SE STATE LATE
NEXT WEEK.
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR. 34/JFB
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nah, just a new tropical depression that is forecast to become a hurricane in the NW Caribbean.
Lol.Yay T.D 5!.Not liking that track though :(.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anything new happened while I was gone?.

Just the usual new TD that is forecasted to become a hurricane, nothing exciting:)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
012100Z AUG 12
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/FWC-N/OVLY2/0087/AUG
OVLY/ATL STORM 05L/011800Z0/AUG/1OF1/TROP DEPRESSION 05L(FIVE)/METOC
TEXT/12//G/120000N3/0481200W5/D
TEXT/12//G/131800N3/0543000W2/S
TEXT/12//G/142400N1/0605400W5/S
TEXT/12//G/153000N9/0670000W3/S
TEXT/12//G/163000N0/0730000W0/S
TEXT/12//G/173000N1/0780000W5/H
LINE/6//G/120000N3/0481200W5/131800N3/0543000W2/1 42400N1/0605400W5
/153000N9/0670000W3/163000N0/0730000W0/173000N1/0 780000W5
ARC/0/G///131800N3/0543000W2/040NM/040NM
ARC/0/G///142400N1/0605400W5/060NM/060NM
ARC/0/G///153000N9/0670000W3/070NM/070NM
TEXT/12//G/100000N1/0454200W5/TROP DEPRESSION FIVE
TEXT/12//G/090000N9/0454200W5/01 AUG 1800Z
TEXT/12//G/080000N8/0454200W5/MAX 30 KT
TEXT/12//G/070000N7/0454200W5/285 AT 16 KT
TEXT/12//G/060000N6/0454200W5/34 KT RADII SHOWN
TEXT/12//G/131800N3/0503000W8/0218Z MAX 45
TEXT/12//G/142400N1/0565400W0/0318Z MAX 55
TEXT/12//G/153000N9/0630000W9/0418Z MAX 55
TEXT/12//G/163000N0/0690000W5/0518Z MAX 60
TEXT/12//G/173000N1/0740000W1/0618Z MAX 65
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN



Well now I understand completely
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unknowncomic:
what is that the 18z nam shows next to fla.in three days?


That is the T Wave by DR. NAM has been showing weak development for a couple days now. Could be a fly in the ointment per-se in eroding the western flank of the Atl-Ridge and allowing a NW to N turn in time with TD5.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anything new happened while I was gone?.
we have td 5 now washi and expected to become a hurricane.
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Lot's of rumbling here in the Boynton Beach area....Had to turn the lights on
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anything new happened while I was gone?.


Lol. Nah. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1399. Patrap
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1380. Patrap 5:26 PM EDT on August 01, 2012

I am on a different computer out of town and was not going to go there until tomorrow am when I was back home with my links to the Gulf eddy warm pool charts.

Not a good thing if this gets up into the Gulf and over the eddy..........If the GFS pans out, and we do get a hurricane nearing the Western tip of Cuba, everyone from Florida to Mexico is going to be at the mercy of the next viable trof and whether it gets picked or or not. Impossible to forecast the "turn" this far out.


Yup.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
1398. pottery
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Already got my drink of choice and relaxed in my chair

Watched The Games live, on and off all day.
Good stuff, for sure.
Congratulations on the US performances in the pool.
Some FANTASTIC finishes, so make sure you are well prepared!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1380. Patrap 5:26 PM EDT on August 01, 2012

I am on a different computer out of town and was not going to go there until tomorrow am when I was back home with my links to the Gulf eddy warm pool charts.

Not a good thing if this gets up into the Gulf and over the eddy..........If the GFS pans out, and we do get a hurricane nearing the Western tip of Cuba, everyone from Florida to Mexico is going to be at the mercy of the next viable trof and whether it gets picked or or not. Impossible to forecast the "turn" this far out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
My forecast graphic for TD5, NOT OFFICIAL

I see its a understandibale track

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10998
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anything new happened while I was gone?.

Nah, just a new tropical depression that is forecast to become a hurricane in the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31437
1394. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
012100Z AUG 12
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/FWC-N/OVLY2/0087/AUG
OVLY/ATL STORM 05L/011800Z0/AUG/1OF1/TROP DEPRESSION 05L(FIVE)/METOC
TEXT/12//G/120000N3/0481200W5/D
TEXT/12//G/131800N3/0543000W2/S
TEXT/12//G/142400N1/0605400W5/S
TEXT/12//G/153000N9/0670000W3/S
TEXT/12//G/163000N0/0730000W0/S
TEXT/12//G/173000N1/0780000W5/H
LINE/6//G/120000N3/0481200W5/131800N3/0543000W2/1 42400N1/0605400W5
/153000N9/0670000W3/163000N0/0730000W0/173000N1/0 780000W5
ARC/0/G///131800N3/0543000W2/040NM/040NM
ARC/0/G///142400N1/0605400W5/060NM/060NM
ARC/0/G///153000N9/0670000W3/070NM/070NM
TEXT/12//G/100000N1/0454200W5/TROP DEPRESSION FIVE
TEXT/12//G/090000N9/0454200W5/01 AUG 1800Z
TEXT/12//G/080000N8/0454200W5/MAX 30 KT
TEXT/12//G/070000N7/0454200W5/285 AT 16 KT
TEXT/12//G/060000N6/0454200W5/34 KT RADII SHOWN
TEXT/12//G/131800N3/0503000W8/0218Z MAX 45
TEXT/12//G/142400N1/0565400W0/0318Z MAX 55
TEXT/12//G/153000N9/0630000W9/0418Z MAX 55
TEXT/12//G/163000N0/0690000W5/0518Z MAX 60
TEXT/12//G/173000N1/0740000W1/0618Z MAX 65
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1393. Patrap
catastropheadjuster, Hmm, I've heard dat Handle before me thinks.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Nice graphic. Does everyone see the weakness by the yucatan? Yeah, bar any major changes, he's gonna thread the needle into the Gulf.

As I stated earlier...the track will not be a problem. Intensity forecast will be a challenge.


You would need to see what the long range steering for the Yucatan is forecasted to be. The graphic I posted is for the current steering conditions. They could be materially different if the storm reaches the Yucatan next Tuesday.
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Anything new happened while I was gone?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
1390. 7544
people never learn its only the first cone wait watch and see the gfs is goona catch up with cmc watch it alaways happen we are not new to this you all know the drill sit back and enjoy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1389. pottery
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Pottery & Kman~ How you all doing? So I know it's early but what's your opinion of the tropical wave? Is the winds in the Caribbean to high for it to make it?

sheri

Hi !
Long time no see !

Read back a bit, it's now a Tropical Storm #5.
And I don't have an opinion on this one. But I'm watching it's every move !!
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1388. nigel20
TD5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what is that the 18z nam shows next to fla.in three days?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Lots of time to worry about the track. The real problem though is that if it gets to the central Caribbean the only way out from there will likely bring a lot of damage for somewhere given the very high TCHP. Worst case it passes South of us and goes through that area off to the WNW and NW between us and the Yucatan. CAT 5 territory there if the upper levels are good.

If this makes it to the West Caribbean like forecast, I don't see anything less than a Category 2 out of it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31437

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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