Disturbance 99L more organized; record melting in Austrian Alps

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 11°N 47°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is showing increasing organization, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression today or tomorrow as it moves westward at 15 - 20 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has two respectable low-level spiral bands, one to the north and one to the south, and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center. The thunderstorm activity has not changed much in intensity this morning. A well-defined surface circulation is not evident on satellite images, but last night's 8:30 pm EDT pass from the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated center with light winds had formed. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara is not present in large quantities over the central tropical Atlantic. WInd shear over the disturbance has increased some since Tuesday, and is now at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance has gained a bit of latitude and is now at 11°N, which will help it leverage the Earth's spin more to acquire its own spin. These conditions are probably sufficient for 99L to become Tropical Depression Five, with Thursday being the most likely day for this to happen. However, the reliable computer models are not very eager to develop 99L, and none show it becoming a hurricane over the next five days. This is probably because the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic is unusually stable for this time of year (Figure 2), with large-scale areas of dry, sinking air present. Climatologically, we see very few Cape Verdes-type hurricanes forming near the Lesser Antilles Islands this early in August, and I expect 99L will struggle at times over the next few days. This is particularly likely if 99L goes north of 13°N, where a band a high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies. At 8 am Wednesday, NHC gave 99L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain, but a track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean is the most popular solution from the models.


Figure 3. Typhoon Saola (bottom) and Typhoon Damrey (top) perform a pincer maneuver on Shanghai, China in this MODIS photo from NASA's Terra satellite taken at 02 UTC August 1, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Two typhoons headed towards China
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons headed towards China. The more dangerous of the two is Category 2 Typhoon Saola, which is predicted to skirt the northern coast of Taiwan and hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Friday as a Category 3 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Japan, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday at Category 1 strength.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in America's heartland continued on Tuesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 113° temperature recorded in Chandler, Oklahoma. A close second: Tulsa hit 112°, just 3° below the city's all-time high of 115° set on August 10, 1936. The low temperature in Tulsa was 88° Tuesday morning, tying the record for warmest low temperature in city history set just the previous day. Six locations in Oklahoma hit 112° or hotter Tuesday, and the forecast calls for highs near 112° again today over portions of Oklahoma.

Extreme dryness in the Central U.S.
A few final tallies for July precipitation are in, and several U.S. cities in the heart of the drought region set new records for driest July:

Joplin, MO: 0.00" (ties record set in 1946)
Springfield, MO: 0.32" (previous record 0.33" in 1953)
Sioux Falls, SD: 0.24" (previous record, 0.24" in 1947, normal is 3.09")

Record early snow melt in the Austrian Alps
One of the longest meteorological data records at high altitude comes from Sonnblick, Austria, on a mountaintop in the Alps with an elevation of 3106 meters (10,200 feet.) The observatory typically sees maximum snow depths of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet) during winter. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the snow had never completely melted at Sonnblick until the summer of 1992. Complete snow melt did not happen again until August 12, 2003, and has happened an average of once every two years since then--but always in September. Yesterday, on July 31, the snow completely melted at Sonnblick, the earliest melting since record keeping began in 1886. It's been an exceptionally hot summer in Austria, which experienced its 6th warmest June since record keeping began in 1767. Sonnblick Observatory recorded its all-time warmest temperature of 15.3°C (60°F) on June 30. Vienna hit 37.7°C (100°F) that day--the hottest temperature ever measured in June in Austria. Note that the two mountains in the Alps with long climate records, Saentis in Switzerland and Zugspitze in Germany, beat their records for earliest melting last year in 2011 (Saentis beat the previous record of 2003, and Zugspitze tied the record set in 2003.)


Figure 4. The Sonnblick Observatory in Austria on April 26, 2010. Image credit: Michael Staudinger.

Jeff Masters

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886. yoboi
Quoting Pocamocca:

Just like the GFS.


fla will be in the lottery...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2433
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's the OFPI track looking like? I noticed that the coordinates aren't incorporated into the data.


18z OFPI (Official track)
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting KendallHurricane:
some models have it as a Strong TS or minimal hurricane coming thought the mentioned area, imo if it goes north of the islands like the CMC model then we could have a stronger storm ???
The further south it stays, the more likely it is for intensification. If it were to go north of the Greater Antilles, it'll have to intersect through the TUTT which will basically equate to its demise.

I'm waiting to see what the OFPI track looks like to see why the SHIPS intensifies it into a hurricane.
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99L
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Quoting yoboi:


i have a question for ya, if louisiana has another coastal evacuation like they did for gustav, how will the phase evacuation take place???? and what are the timelines for each phase???


Sorry to jump in and answer questions directed at someone else, but the Louisiana Evacuation Guide (http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/evacinfo/SEHurriGu ide.pdf) says this on phased evacuations:

During a threat of a hurricane, a phased evacuation will be based on geographic location and time in which tropical storm winds are forecasted to reach the affected areas.

Phase I - 50 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas south of the Intracoastal Waterway. These areas are outside any levee protection system and are vulnerable to Category 1 and 2 storms. These areas are depicted in RED on the Evacuation Map. During Phase I, there are no route restrictions.

Phase II - 40 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas south of the Mississippi River which are levee protected but remain vulnerable to Category 2 or higher storms. These areas are depicted in ORANGE on the Evacuation Map. During Phase II, there are no route restrictions.

Phase III - 30 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas on the East Bank of the Mississippi River in the New Orleans Metropolitan Area which are within levee protection system but remain vulnerable to a slow-moving Category 3 or any Category 4 or 5 storm. These areas are depicted in YELLOW on the Evacuation Map. During Phase III, certain routes will be directed and the Contraflow Plan implemented.

Okay, back to lurking.
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Quoting Chiggy:
12Z EURO looses the system south of the Jamaica or thereabouts. EURO is one major model that hasn't been keen on developing 99L!!

My bad - ignore that - it has a weak system in the SW GoM in 8 days time - just about the same place as 12Z GFS run has a hurricane about the time frame! Very similar runs...
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Quoting tatoprweather:
Should PR be worried about this one?


I would certainly watch this closely, if I were there.
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Quoting Grothar:
I wouldn't be surprised to keep seeing a further shift North with the models. Also, don't forget the large trough which is expected at the end of the week.
Depending on where the system is, things could change. Just saying. That being said. Having said that.
The CMC may have the best handle on this system. I am wondering how strong the trough will be, and what affect it will have on the ULL when they interact.CMC 144 hours. I should mention the HWRF has this south of Eastern Cuba in 126 hours.
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Noting first glitch since TWC took over: There is a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Short Term warning forecast for New Smyrna Beach that is not getting posted on the WU NSB site area for example :
218 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.NOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DIFFUSE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW AND LAKE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE CURRENTLY REMAINS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTS INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH INTERACTION WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BREVARD COUNTY COAST.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE INDIAN RIVER...MARTIN...AND SAINT LUCIE COASTS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY ENCOUNTER THE SEA BREEZE AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWN BURST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

We have a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Short Term Warning from NWS that was not transferred into WU files.
Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:
192...into the Gulf.



agrees on a yucatan pass
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9738
12Z EURO looses the system south of the Jamaica or thereabouts. EURO is one major model that hasn't been keen on developing 99L!!
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192...into the Gulf.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
99L/TD5 should start its Westward movement very very soon
anyway 99L/TD5 is looking really good officaly a TD at 5 and maybe TS at 8pm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z SHIPS gets my seal of approval.

Run off the OFPI and NOT the BAMM
What's the OFPI track looking like? I noticed that the coordinates aren't incorporated into the data.
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My 12z FIM is rolling in...

Out to 54 hours with a 35 knot TS affecting the islands.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting Grothar:
I wouldn't be surprised to keep seeing a further shift North with the models. Also, don't forget the large trough which is expected at the end of the week.
Depending on where the system is, things could change. Just saying. That being said. Having said that.
Should PR be worried about this one?
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Quoting BDAwx:
Is it possible that the orographic convection generated by the mountains on Taiwan has pulled Typhoon Saola more westward in a similar fashion to a thunderstorm over a sheared system pulling the low level circulation under it?

In theory, yes, but the topography of Taiwan in relation to Saola doesn't lend itself much to that - Taiwan is to the SW of the center, meaning the circulation is piling up on the NW side of the island, with the mountains between to potentially negate the effect.

It is an interesting thought, though, and not one I'd personally dismiss.
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Quoting nigel20:
Saola

Northern Taiwan is getting a lot of rain at the moment.
Looks that Saola really wants to make landfall in taiwan.
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Quoting jeffs713:

IMHO, its borderline for TD. Really depends on how it does in DMIN, like you mentioned.


We shall see! I'll have a look after I go fishing. The Bahamas has today and tomorrow of GOOD weather before that wave comes in and makes thunderstorms again! :P Later!
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866. yoboi
Quoting ncstorm:
hold up..did the Euro take the PR wave into SC..looks to be strong?

72 hours


96





hey dude do ya have 120 hrs???
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2433
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just to give you an idea of how small Marco was...Looking from the Atlantic as a whole, it looked like a small cloud in the Bay of Campeche. We could probably fit a few Marco's into Saola.

Marco was so small that he developed over a bay.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
12z Euro basically has nothing throughout the Caribbean until it reaches the Yucatan at 168 hours.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9738
Quoting Thrawst:
NHC might wait until 11pm to see how it does during the DMIN. Just doesn't seem organized enough to be classified at this time. Just shows you that if I were to work at the NHC, many of you would hate me for not classifying in these types of situations. LOL

IMHO, its borderline for TD. Really depends on how it does in DMIN, like you mentioned.
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18z SHIPS gets my seal of approval.

Run off the OFPI and NOT the BAMM
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting Thrawst:
NHC might wait until 11pm to see how it does during the DMIN. Just doesn't seem organized enough to be classified at this time. Just shows you that if I were to work at the NHC, many of you would hate me for not classifying in these types of situations. LOL
maybe but all indications looks to be an upgrade at 5Pm or 11 pm but its looking real good right now
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Quoting Chiggy:
12Z CMC at 144 hrs - Still the Northern solution moving NW!
For the CMC to verify, 99L will have basically intersect the TUTT to find the sweet spot that lies across the Bahamas and points westward.

Worst case scenario would be that 99L remains south of 18˚N throughout its lifetime for optimal intensification.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Smaller than Marco?

Just to give you an idea of how small Marco was...Looking from the Atlantic as a whole, it looked like a small cloud in the Bay of Campeche. We could probably fit a few Marco's into Saola.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Quoting Grothar:
I believe the circulation is much further North than the last position.

This may be a T.D. It looks like it has closed off. If it is a T.S., it is a disorganizes one.
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856. BDAwx
Is it possible that the orographic convection generated by the mountains on Taiwan has pulled Typhoon Saola more westward in a similar fashion to a thunderstorm over a sheared system pulling the low level circulation under it?
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99L is very interesting! That's impossible to predict where in the lesser antilles it will pass first...
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hold up..did the Euro take the PR wave into SC..looks to be strong?

72 hours


96


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm waiting for the 18z SHIPS data; but for right now, it appears that upper-level winds start to deteriorate around 60˚W (upper-level winds start to increase to about 25kts in about 72 hours; all the way up to about 40kts in 96 hours) -- implying that whatever makes it into the eastern Caribbean will probably degenerate into an upper wave.
some models have it as a Strong TS or minimal hurricane coming thought the mentioned area, imo if it goes north of the islands like the CMC model then we could have a stronger storm ???
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NHC might wait until 11pm to see how it does during the DMIN. Just doesn't seem organized enough to be classified at this time. Just shows you that if I were to work at the NHC, many of you would hate me for not classifying in these types of situations. LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm waiting for the 18z SHIPS data; but for right now, it appears that upper-level winds start to deteriorate around 60˚W (upper-level winds start to increase to about 25kts in about 72 hours; all the way up to about 40kts in 96 hours) -- implying that whatever makes it into the eastern Caribbean will probably degenerate into an upper wave.

Stormchaser said the 12Z SHIPS was unreliable because it was run off something else than the OFCL track.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
850. yoboi
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The northern track shown by the models would make things very hostile for 99L.

Has to skirt under Jamaica to become anything significant.


could be dead center jamaica but still too early to say.
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2433
12z ecmwf not to fond of 99L
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#628 - LargoFL

I too will be watching for the Mars mission this Sunday. It will indeed be a major step forward if we "stick" the landing. It is a most ambitious project. Fingers crossed the Rover Curiosity gets to do it's full 2 year mission, and hopefully can have an even longer go at it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably a high end Category 2 or possibly a minimal Category 3. Definitely not a 4. UW-CIMSS likes to be aggressive.

Which one is more reliable? And I agree. High-end Category 2 is more likely.
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I wouldn't be surprised to keep seeing a further shift North with the models. Also, don't forget the large trough which is expected at the end of the week.
Depending on where the system is, things could change. Just saying. That being said. Having said that.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
That's the smallest 85mph hurricane I've ever seen LOL


Smaller than Marco?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Run with the official track, 99L becomes a hurricane with a marginally conductive enviorment

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL992012 08/01/12 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 46 50 54 56 59 61 64
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 46 50 54 56 59 61 64
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 58 65 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 16 13 16 13 10 6 15 9 15 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 5 2 4 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 300 290 290 290 277 272 273 255 261 283 273 268 268
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 136 139 140 140 141 146 145 147 149 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 135 138 140 141 139 142 145 144 143 143 143
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10
700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 59 58 55 56 56 62 59 60 62 63
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 13
850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 7 3 11 27 23 31 37 48 51 60 46
200 MB DIV 1 20 26 14 29 49 35 31 50 41 54 43 46
700-850 TADV -14 -17 -12 -12 -12 -9 -5 -3 1 -2 2 -1 0
LAND (KM) 912 876 850 840 797 536 420 431 239 188 79 24 56
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 15 15 14 13 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 29 21 23 27 31 55 51 53 54 63 74 109 94

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0)
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


don't like the way those models are curving north across Cuba. There have been many storms that have taken that route and have gone thru or close to s fla. 2 that I can think of were David (79) and King (50) although those happened later in the season.
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Quoting KendallHurricane:
Miami i if we get TD 5 i suspect a track towards the WNW coming though the islands and coming either close or over Jamaica , the caymans and possibly making landfall over central/western cuba then models have a slight N to NW bend ???
I'm waiting for the 18z SHIPS data; but for right now, it appears that upper-level winds start to deteriorate around 60˚W (upper-level winds start to increase to about 25kts in about 72 hours; all the way up to about 40kts in 96 hours) -- implying that whatever makes it into the eastern Caribbean will probably degenerate into an upper wave.
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Anyone has the 12z EURO?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14595
840. yoboi
Quoting NoLa86:
Is this guy okay?


yeah i think he is ok....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2433
LLC firing on all cylinders
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Typhoon Damrey is high-end Category 1

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 AUG 2012 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 31:49:53 N Lon : 126:43:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 957.7mb/ 79.6kt
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Saola

Northern Taiwan is getting a lot of rain at the moment.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Hurricane Cat.1

That's the smallest 85mph hurricane I've ever seen LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.