Disturbance 99L more organized; record melting in Austrian Alps

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 01, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 11°N 47°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is showing increasing organization, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression today or tomorrow as it moves westward at 15 - 20 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has two respectable low-level spiral bands, one to the north and one to the south, and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center. The thunderstorm activity has not changed much in intensity this morning. A well-defined surface circulation is not evident on satellite images, but last night's 8:30 pm EDT pass from the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated center with light winds had formed. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara is not present in large quantities over the central tropical Atlantic. WInd shear over the disturbance has increased some since Tuesday, and is now at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance has gained a bit of latitude and is now at 11°N, which will help it leverage the Earth's spin more to acquire its own spin. These conditions are probably sufficient for 99L to become Tropical Depression Five, with Thursday being the most likely day for this to happen. However, the reliable computer models are not very eager to develop 99L, and none show it becoming a hurricane over the next five days. This is probably because the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic is unusually stable for this time of year (Figure 2), with large-scale areas of dry, sinking air present. Climatologically, we see very few Cape Verdes-type hurricanes forming near the Lesser Antilles Islands this early in August, and I expect 99L will struggle at times over the next few days. This is particularly likely if 99L goes north of 13°N, where a band a high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies. At 8 am Wednesday, NHC gave 99L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain, but a track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean is the most popular solution from the models.


Figure 3. Typhoon Saola (bottom) and Typhoon Damrey (top) perform a pincer maneuver on Shanghai, China in this MODIS photo from NASA's Terra satellite taken at 02 UTC August 1, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Two typhoons headed towards China
In the Western Pacific, typhoon season is in full swing with two typhoons headed towards China. The more dangerous of the two is Category 2 Typhoon Saola, which is predicted to skirt the northern coast of Taiwan and hit mainland China 300 miles south of Shanghai on Friday as a Category 3 typhoon. Typhoon Damrey, a Category 1 storm located just south of Japan, is expected to hit China about 150 miles north of Shanghai on Thursday at Category 1 strength.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The withering heat in America's heartland continued on Tuesday, with the prize for most ridiculous heat a 113° temperature recorded in Chandler, Oklahoma. A close second: Tulsa hit 112°, just 3° below the city's all-time high of 115° set on August 10, 1936. The low temperature in Tulsa was 88° Tuesday morning, tying the record for warmest low temperature in city history set just the previous day. Six locations in Oklahoma hit 112° or hotter Tuesday, and the forecast calls for highs near 112° again today over portions of Oklahoma.

Extreme dryness in the Central U.S.
A few final tallies for July precipitation are in, and several U.S. cities in the heart of the drought region set new records for driest July:

Joplin, MO: 0.00" (ties record set in 1946)
Springfield, MO: 0.32" (previous record 0.33" in 1953)
Sioux Falls, SD: 0.24" (previous record, 0.24" in 1947, normal is 3.09")

Record early snow melt in the Austrian Alps
One of the longest meteorological data records at high altitude comes from Sonnblick, Austria, on a mountaintop in the Alps with an elevation of 3106 meters (10,200 feet.) The observatory typically sees maximum snow depths of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet) during winter. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the snow had never completely melted at Sonnblick until the summer of 1992. Complete snow melt did not happen again until August 12, 2003, and has happened an average of once every two years since then--but always in September. Yesterday, on July 31, the snow completely melted at Sonnblick, the earliest melting since record keeping began in 1886. It's been an exceptionally hot summer in Austria, which experienced its 6th warmest June since record keeping began in 1767. Sonnblick Observatory recorded its all-time warmest temperature of 15.3°C (60°F) on June 30. Vienna hit 37.7°C (100°F) that day--the hottest temperature ever measured in June in Austria. Note that the two mountains in the Alps with long climate records, Saentis in Switzerland and Zugspitze in Germany, beat their records for earliest melting last year in 2011 (Saentis beat the previous record of 2003, and Zugspitze tied the record set in 2003.)


Figure 4. The Sonnblick Observatory in Austria on April 26, 2010. Image credit: Michael Staudinger.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nigel20:



Looks like its ready to explode with all that energy concealed in a ball of intense convection. TD by 11pm.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


this is a td imo looks better than some ts like danny and henri of 2009.
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Quoting MississippiWx:



What do you think, Mississippi? Yay or nay?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31506
Quoting Pocamocca:

You mean to tell me the Death Ridge is back over Texas?




Here's the initialization of the 12Z GFS run from today. As you can see, the center of the ridge, the 5940 ft. height, is over the panhandle. Anticyclonic flow is seen in the wind barbs.

Head out 6 days and you can see that the center of the ridge is now planted over New Mexico. Flow from the north east, and higher relative humidity at 500 mbar. Heights are still 5940ft.



Day 8 -


Flow out of the east at 500mbar over the majority of Texas with the ridge planted over the four corners region. 99L is clearly visible in the lower right corner of the image with an anticyclone over its center and 45kts winds.

500mbar Steering winds are out of the east-south-east.

The Houston WFO gives us a chance of rain starting Saturday and lower maximum temperatures. We shall see what happens.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 943
GFS 240 hours.
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There's 2 NWS Warnings for Flagler Beach to the Brevard County Line and no indication on WU Ground of this fact. Link This warning includes metro Orlando and the I-4 corridor.

Just noting a change in Standard Operating Procedure. This makes WU ground less reliable for people who routinely come here and depend upon accurate, up to date information regarding potential local weather threats.

2 products issued by NWS for:
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
218 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-144-147-012030-COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
218 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.NOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DIFFUSE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW AND LAKE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE CURRENTLY REMAINS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTS INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH INTERACTION WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BREVARD COUNTY COAST.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE INDIAN RIVER...MARTIN...AND SAINT LUCIE COASTS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY ENCOUNTER THE SEA BREEZE AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWN BURST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

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So far no renumber. I think they will wait to see how it does at dimin.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I would call it.

What does the 12z FIM model show?



The 15km model died in the middle of the run and just fired back up.

I'll post the rest when the run is complete.



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
The environment looks pretty moist ahead of 99L
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
It will be interesting to see if 99L hits the breaks at Jamaica and turns NW to N as modeled by the TVCN or continue off to the WNW as modeled by the GFS and EURO.


Good Afternoon, depending on its strength there will be a trough coming out of the US. Anyway its quite surprising how its climbing latitudes so much in just overnight and today.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N45W 13N47W...
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KT. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND/OR WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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I would call it.

What does the 12z FIM model show?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31506

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Poca,
Seems like it never leaves !
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Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
That Texas Death Ridge had better do it's job and deflect this thing over to Florida !!


On the 12Z GFS run the TX death-ridge pushes the Hurricane to south of TX/MX border. Too early to tell but at least for the today's 12Z models there seems to be a "consensus" that future Ernesto may end up in the western half of the GOM.
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920. 7544
watching the pr wave building again i believe this is where 99l will head then after that we have to wait and see imo
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919. yoboi
Quoting Chicklit:
Noting first glitch since TWC took over: There is a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Short Term warning forecast for New Smyrna Beach that is not getting posted on the WU NSB site area for example :
218 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.NOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DIFFUSE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW AND LAKE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE CURRENTLY REMAINS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTS INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH INTERACTION WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BREVARD COUNTY COAST.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE INDIAN RIVER...MARTIN...AND SAINT LUCIE COASTS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY ENCOUNTER THE SEA BREEZE AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWN BURST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

We have a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Short Term Warning from NWS that was not transferred into WU files.
Link


contact the weather channel IT dept and let them know...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
It will be interesting to see if 99L hits the breaks at Jamaica and turns NW to N as modeled by the TVCN or continue off to the WNW as modeled by the GFS and EURO.
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916. yoboi
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
That Texas Death Ridge had better do it's job and deflect this thing over to Florida !!


that ridge is not as strong as it was last yr....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
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That Texas Death Ridge had better do it's job and deflect this thing over to Florida !!
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99L/TD5 should start moving Westward next 6-12 hours
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11130
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, but most of those are statistical models. The more reliable dynamical models are a bit farther south.


I was referring to those more reliable's that made the little shift Nward up by Jamaica.
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910. yoboi
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


First time for everything.
After all ,what could TWC possibly have done to WU in their separateness to cause this to happen somewhere?

Its absurd to jump on them


could be the new server they are using...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And significantly better if it went just a little south.
Indeed: south of 18N is the worst-case scenario.

The GFS, for example, has it skirting just south of the Jamaican coast and it appears to intensify into a pretty decent system by the time it reaches the northern Yucatan.

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Probably going to setup my first blog in about four years within the next day.

I'm enjoying the complex nature of this system way too much.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
For those who really know what they're getting themselves into...

The 18z Diagnostic Enviorment file for 99L


Ok. In english now!!lol
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
Quoting Chicklit:


Whelp I've been on here for 6 years and it's never happened before to my knowledge.


First time for everything.
After all ,what could TWC possibly have done to WU in their separateness to cause this to happen somewhere?

Its absurd to jump on them
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks; yeah, that track looks good for some decent intensification. Just the slightest of poleward shifts would be calamitous for its intensification.

And significantly better if it went just a little south.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31506
Agreement between EURO and GFS beats any other model consensus any day - It's a SAFE bet.
UKMET is also on the same line as of its 12Z run, and so does 12Z GFDL. That's FOUR very good models in some agreement on the track BUT with varying intensity!!
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GFS in a week.
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901. TXCWC
12Z Euro South/South Central Texas landfall - close to if not a Tropical Storm on this run
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 504
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I think its time we stop blaming everything on the TWC merger.
Im sure this had nothing to do with it


Whelp I've been on here for 6 years and it's never happened before to my knowledge. It was (and still is) a pretty violent cell, too. Link How convenient. Radar just went down for maintenance. Link

And this is not "blaming everything on TWC merger." As I said, this is the only glitch I've noticed thus far and may have nothing to do with it but as I've said never saw it before and usually I run across the street and warn my mother when I know something's up.
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I just don't see the CMC's solution. It is an outlier track-wise, and I don't see enough of a weakness early enough to pull it north of the Islands for that kind of a track. Later on, yes, but 2-3 days from now, not so much.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


18z OFPI (Official track)
Thanks; yeah, that track looks good for some decent intensification. Just the slightest of poleward shifts would be calamitous for its intensification.
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For those who really know what they're getting themselves into...

The 18z Diagnostic Enviorment file for 99L
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC may have the best handle on this system. I am wondering how strong the trough will be, and what affect it will have on the ULL when they interact.CMC 144 hours. I should mention the HWRF has this south of Eastern Cuba in 126 hours.


Hard to say. I wish I knew more about these things. I do know the SST's are very warm there.

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Quoting Chicklit:
Noting first glitch since TWC took over: There is a Hazardous Weather Outlook and Short Term warning forecast for New Smyrna Beach that is not getting posted on the WU NSB site area


I think its time we stop blaming everything on the TWC merger.
Im sure this had nothing to do with it
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
893. yoboi
Quoting VoodooRue:


Sorry to jump in and answer questions directed at someone else, but the Louisiana Evacuation Guide (http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/evacinfo/SEHurriGu ide.pdf) says this on phased evacuations:

During a threat of a hurricane, a phased evacuation will be based on geographic location and time in which tropical storm winds are forecasted to reach the affected areas.

Phase I - 50 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas south of the Intracoastal Waterway. These areas are outside any levee protection system and are vulnerable to Category 1 and 2 storms. These areas are depicted in RED on the Evacuation Map. During Phase I, there are no route restrictions.

Phase II - 40 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas south of the Mississippi River which are levee protected but remain vulnerable to Category 2 or higher storms. These areas are depicted in ORANGE on the Evacuation Map. During Phase II, there are no route restrictions.

Phase III - 30 Hours before onset of tropical storm winds. Includes areas on the East Bank of the Mississippi River in the New Orleans Metropolitan Area which are within levee protection system but remain vulnerable to a slow-moving Category 3 or any Category 4 or 5 storm. These areas are depicted in YELLOW on the Evacuation Map. During Phase III, certain routes will be directed and the Contraflow Plan implemented.

Okay, back to lurking.


thank you very much...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
892. TXCWC
12Z Euro Day 9 close to GFS just a bit north of once in Gulf
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 504
Quoting nigel20:
Saola
Not Saola.
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12Z Euro at 216 hrs - stronger system approaching South TX. Pretty similar to 12Z GFS run which has a hurricane in the SW GoM.
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Quoting hydrus:
This may be a T.D. It looks like it has closed off. If it is a T.S., it is a disorganizes one.


I don't know. One of the bloggers said the other night it would probably be a depression by Wednesday. Who knows?
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GFS 168 hours.
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886. yoboi
Quoting Pocamocca:

Just like the GFS.


fla will be in the lottery...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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